当前的比特币（BTC）熊市

当前的比特币（BTC）熊市（定义为从历史高度下降20％或以上）的数量级相对较弱，只能持续90天

The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last for 90 days, according to market analyst and the author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson.

根据市场分析师和梅特卡尔夫定律的作者，目前的比特币（BTC）熊市（定义为距历史最高高度的20％或更高）相对较弱，只能持续90天。

Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur roughly once per year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

彼得森将目前的低迷与以前的10个熊市进行了比较，每年大约发生一次熊市，并说只有四个熊市比持续时间的价格下降要差，包括2018年，2021年，2022年和2024年。

The analyst predicted that BTC will not sink deeply below the $50,000 price level due to the underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will break below $80,000. The analyst added:

分析师预测，由于采用趋势的基本采用趋势，BTC不会深入低于50,000美元的价格水平。但是，彼得森还认为，基于动量，BTC不太可能会损失80,000美元以下。分析师补充说：

“We're also seeing a complete absence of retail traders, which is remarkable given that we're used to seeing large influxes of retail capital in previous bull markets. This lack of participation might be related to President Trump's tariffs, which have distracted both traders and the media, shifting the focus away from Bitcoin.”

“我们还看到零售商人完全没有零售商人，这非常了不起，鉴于我们习惯于在以前的牛市看到大量零售资本涌入。这种缺乏参与可能与特朗普总统的关税有关，这使交易者和媒体都分散了注意力，从而将焦点转移到了比特币上。”

Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following United States President Trump's tariffs on several US trading partners, which sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war.

在美国总统特朗普对美国几个贸易伙伴的关税之后，加密货币市场经历了急剧下滑，这引发了美国出口的反竞争，导致人们担心延长贸易战。

Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson

自2025年以来的每个熊市的比较。来源：蒂莫西·彼得森

Related: Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they're still bearish

相关：比特币要售价65k美元吗？交易者解释为什么他们仍然看跌

Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears

投资者逃离了贸易战的风险资产的恐惧

Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.

由于持续的贸易战和宏观经济不确定性，投资者对投机资产的需求正在下降。

The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, a measure of BTC owned for one week or less, declined from 5.9% amid the historic bull rally in November 2024, to only 2.3% as of March 20.

玻璃节热供应指标是一周或更短的BTC量度，在2024年11月的历史性公牛集会中从5.9％下降到截至3月20日的2.3％。

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face trade war pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially lower or diffuse the trade tariffs.

Nansen研究分析师Nicolai Sondergaard表示，加密货币市场将面临贸易战压力，直到2025年4月，届时国际谈判可能会降低或扩散贸易关税。

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also shows that a majority of retail traders are already invested in BTC, dashing long-held hopes that a massive rush of retail traders would inject fresh capital into the markets and push prices higher in the near term.

CryptoQuant最近的一项分析还表明，大多数零售商人已经投资于BTC，这表明长期以来，希望大量的零售交易者会向市场注入新的资本，并在短期内将价格推高。

The trade war also placed Bitcoin's safe haven narrative in doubt as the price of the decentralized asset collapsed over tariff headlines alongside other risk and speculative assets.

贸易战还置于比特币的避风港叙述中，因为分散资产的价格与其他风险和投机资产一起倒塌了。