當前的比特幣（BTC）熊市

當前的比特幣（BTC）熊市（定義為從歷史高度下降20％或以上）的數量級相對較弱，只能持續90天

The current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, defined as a 20% or more drop from the all-time high, is relatively weak in terms of magnitude and should only last for 90 days, according to market analyst and the author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, Timothy Peterson.

根據市場分析師和梅特卡爾夫定律的作者，目前的比特幣（BTC）熊市（定義為距歷史最高高度的20％或更高）相對較弱，只能持續90天。

Peterson compared the current downturn to the 10 previous bear markets, which occur roughly once per year, and said that only four bear markets have been worse than the price decline in terms of duration, including 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024.

彼得森將目前的低迷與以前的10個熊市進行了比較，每年大約發生一次熊市，並說只有四個熊市比持續時間的價格下降要差，包括2018年，2021年，2022年和2024年。

The analyst predicted that BTC will not sink deeply below the $50,000 price level due to the underlying adoption trends. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will break below $80,000. The analyst added:

分析師預測，由於採用趨勢的基本採用趨勢，BTC不會深入低於50,000美元的價格水平。但是，彼得森還認為，基於動量，BTC不太可能會損失80,000美元以下。分析師補充說：

“We're also seeing a complete absence of retail traders, which is remarkable given that we're used to seeing large influxes of retail capital in previous bull markets. This lack of participation might be related to President Trump's tariffs, which have distracted both traders and the media, shifting the focus away from Bitcoin.”

“我們還看到零售商人完全沒有零售商人，這非常了不起，鑑於我們習慣於在以前的牛市看到大量零售資本湧入。這種缺乏參與可能與特朗普總統的關稅有關，這使交易者和媒體都分散了注意力，從而將焦點轉移到了比特幣上。”

Crypto markets experienced a sharp downturn following United States President Trump's tariffs on several US trading partners, which sparked counter-tariffs on US exports, leading to fears of a prolonged trade war.

在美國總統特朗普對美國幾個貿易夥伴的關稅之後，加密貨幣市場經歷了急劇下滑，這引發了美國出口的反競爭，導致人們擔心延長貿易戰。

Comparison of every bear market since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson

自2025年以來的每個熊市的比較。來源：蒂莫西·彼得森

Related: Is Bitcoin going to $65K? Traders explain why they're still bearish

相關：比特幣要售價65k美元嗎？交易者解釋為什麼他們仍然看跌

Investors flee risk-on assets over trade war fears

投資者逃離了貿易戰的風險資產的恐懼

Investor appetite for speculative assets is declining due to the ongoing trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty.

由於持續的貿易戰和宏觀經濟不確定性，投資者對投機資產的需求正在下降。

The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, a measure of BTC owned for one week or less, declined from 5.9% amid the historic bull rally in November 2024, to only 2.3% as of March 20.

玻璃節熱供應指標是一周或更短的BTC量度，在2024年11月的歷史性公牛集會中從5.9％下降到截至3月20日的2.3％。

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will face trade war pressures until April 2025, when international negotiations could potentially lower or diffuse the trade tariffs.

Nansen研究分析師Nicolai Sondergaard表示，加密貨幣市場將面臨貿易戰壓力，直到2025年4月，屆時國際談判可能會降低或擴散貿易關稅。

A recent analysis from CryptoQuant also shows that a majority of retail traders are already invested in BTC, dashing long-held hopes that a massive rush of retail traders would inject fresh capital into the markets and push prices higher in the near term.

CryptoQuant最近的一項分析還表明，大多數零售商人已經投資於BTC，這表明長期以來，希望大量的零售交易者會向市場注入新的資本，並在短期內將價格推高。

The trade war also placed Bitcoin's safe haven narrative in doubt as the price of the decentralized asset collapsed over tariff headlines alongside other risk and speculative assets.

貿易戰還置於比特幣的避風港敘述中，因為分散資產的價格與其他風險和投機資產一起倒塌了。