CryptoQuant 表示比特币（BTC）市场正处于牛市周期的“后期”，警告投资者“建议谨慎”

数据分析提供商 CryptoQuant 表示，加密货币市场目前正处于“当前牛市周期的后期阶段”，建议投资者“谨慎行事”。

Cryptocurrency markets are now in the “later stages of the current bull cycle,” and investors should “proceed with caution,” according to data analytics provider CryptoQuant.

数据分析提供商 CryptoQuant 表示，加密货币市场目前正处于“当前牛市周期的后期阶段”，投资者应该“谨慎行事”。

The bull market, which began in January 2023, is likely to reach its cyclical peak by the first quarter of 2025, or the second quarter at the latest, said Crypto Dan, a CryptoQuant contributor, in a Jan. 6 post.

CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Crypto Dan 在 1 月 6 日的帖子中表示，始于 2023 年 1 月的牛市可能会在 2025 年第一季度（最迟第二季度）达到周期性峰值。

“With a large influx of new investments and additional funds from existing investors, we can assume that the market is now in the later stages of this cycle,” the post said.

帖子称：“随着大量新投资和现有投资者的额外资金涌入，我们可以假设市场现在正处于这个周期的后期阶段。”

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) traded for less than one month spiked to 36%, a pattern resembling prior crypto market tops, the post said.

该帖子称，2024 年第四季度，交易时间不到一个月的比特币 (BTC) 百分比飙升至 36%，这一模式类似于之前的加密货币市场顶部。

This ratio is likely to continue rising, potentially increasing by two to four times before correcting at the start of a bear cycle, said CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 表示，这一比率可能会继续上升，在熊市周期开始时进行修正之前可能会增加两到四倍。

“So, expectations for large gains in both Bitcoin and major altcoins should still be kept open,” the post said.

该帖子称：“因此，对比特币和主要山寨币大幅上涨的预期仍应保持开放。”

Source: CryptoQuant

来源：CryptoQuant

Related: 2025 will be crypto’s best year ever — Steno Research

相关：2025 年将是加密货币史上最好的一年 — Steno Research

Contrasting views

对比观点

CryptoQuant’s cautious take contrasts with the views of most analysts, who expect the bull run to continue through the end of 2025, potentially correcting in the fourth quarter.

CryptoQuant 的谨慎态度与大多数分析师的观点形成鲜明对比，他们预计牛市将持续到 2025 年底，并可能在第四季度进行修正。

Analysts at Steno Research expect 2025 to be crypto’s best year ever, with BTC and Ether (ETH) both crushing all-time highs, among other potential “remarkable positive developments.”

Steno Research 的分析师预计 2025 年将是加密货币史上最好的一年，BTC 和 ETH 都将创历史新高，此外还有其他潜在的“显着积极进展”。

Asset manager VanEck expects the crypto bull market to hit a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year.

资产管理公司 VanEck 预计，加密货币牛市将在 2025 年第一季度达到“中期峰值”，然后在年底飙升至历史新高。

“At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin (BTC) to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum trading above $6,000,” VanEck said in a December blog post authored by head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel.

VanEck 在数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 撰写的 12 月博客文章中表示：“在周期的顶峰，我们预计比特币 (BTC) 的价值约为 18 万美元，而以太坊的交易价格将超过 6,000 美元。”

Similarly, traders on betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi expect BTC and ETH to hit record highs in 2025. They also anticipate the United States greenlighting several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

同样，博彩市场 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 的交易员预计 BTC 和 ETH 将在 2025 年创下历史新高。他们还预计美国将批准几种新型加密货币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 并建立战略比特币储备。

Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025

杂志：2025 年全球加密货币法律将如何变化

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