CryptoQuant 表示比特幣（BTC）市場正處於牛市週期的“後期”，警告投資者“建議謹慎”

數據分析提供商 CryptoQuant 表示，加密貨幣市場目前正處於“當前牛市週期的後期階段”，建議投資者“謹慎行事”。

Cryptocurrency markets are now in the “later stages of the current bull cycle,” and investors should “proceed with caution,” according to data analytics provider CryptoQuant.

數據分析提供商 CryptoQuant 表示，加密貨幣市場目前正處於“當前牛市週期的後期階段”，投資者應該“謹慎行事”。

The bull market, which began in January 2023, is likely to reach its cyclical peak by the first quarter of 2025, or the second quarter at the latest, said Crypto Dan, a CryptoQuant contributor, in a Jan. 6 post.

CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Crypto Dan 在 1 月 6 日的貼文中表示，始於 2023 年 1 月的牛市可能會在 2025 年第一季（最遲第二季）達到週期性高峰。

“With a large influx of new investments and additional funds from existing investors, we can assume that the market is now in the later stages of this cycle,” the post said.

貼文寫道：“隨著大量新投資和現有投資者的額外資金湧入，我們可以假設市場現在正處於這個週期的後期階段。”

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) traded for less than one month spiked to 36%, a pattern resembling prior crypto market tops, the post said.

該貼文稱，2024 年第四季度，交易時間不到一個月的比特幣 (BTC) 百分比飆升至 36%，這種模式類似於先前的加密貨幣市場頂部。

This ratio is likely to continue rising, potentially increasing by two to four times before correcting at the start of a bear cycle, said CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant 表示，這一比率可能會繼續上升，在熊市週期開始時進行修正之前可能會增加兩到四倍。

“So, expectations for large gains in both Bitcoin and major altcoins should still be kept open,” the post said.

該帖子稱：“因此，對比特幣和主要山寨幣大幅上漲的預期仍應保持開放。”

Source: CryptoQuant

來源：CryptoQuant

Related: 2025 will be crypto’s best year ever — Steno Research

相關：2025 年將是加密貨幣史上最好的一年 — Steno Research

Contrasting views

對比觀點

CryptoQuant’s cautious take contrasts with the views of most analysts, who expect the bull run to continue through the end of 2025, potentially correcting in the fourth quarter.

CryptoQuant 的謹慎態度與大多數分析師的觀點形成鮮明對比，他們預計牛市將持續到 2025 年底，並可能在第四季度進行修正。

Analysts at Steno Research expect 2025 to be crypto’s best year ever, with BTC and Ether (ETH) both crushing all-time highs, among other potential “remarkable positive developments.”

Steno Research 的分析師預計 2025 年將是加密貨幣史上最好的一年，BTC 和 ETH 都將創歷史新高，此外還有其他潛在的「顯著積極進展」。

Asset manager VanEck expects the crypto bull market to hit a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year.

資產管理公司 VanEck 預計，加密貨幣牛市將在 2025 年第一季達到“中期高峰”，然後在年底飆升至歷史新高。

“At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin (BTC) to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum trading above $6,000,” VanEck said in a December blog post authored by head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel.

VanEck 在數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 撰寫的 12 月部落格文章中表示：“在周期的頂峰，我們預計比特幣 (BTC) 的價值約為 18 萬美元，而以太坊的交易價格將超過 6,000 美元。”

Similarly, traders on betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi expect BTC and ETH to hit record highs in 2025. They also anticipate the United States greenlighting several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

同樣，博彩市場 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 的交易員預計 BTC 和 ETH 將在 2025 年創下歷史新高。

Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025

雜誌：2025 年全球加密貨幣法律將如何變化

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