在特朗普政府引起的政策不确定性中，加密货币市场极端波动

自从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就职以来，加密货币市场一直处于极端波动。由于最初的美国 - 中国技术霸权竞争和地缘政治风险与特朗普政府意外行动造成的政策不确定性重叠，因此加密货币市场面临的时期比以往任何时候都更加不可预测。

The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing extreme volatility since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump. This volatility is being caused by a combination of factors, including the ongoing U.S.-China technology hegemony competition, geopolitical risks and the policy uncertainty created by the Trump administration's unexpected actions.

自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就职以来，加密货币市场一直在极端波动。这种波动是由多种因素组合引起的，包括正在进行的美国 - 中国技术霸权竞争，地缘政治风险以及特朗普政府意外行动所造成的政策不确定性。

One of the most significant events that impacted the cryptocurrency market in February was Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This move sparked concerns about global trade tensions and inflation within the United States, leading to a decline in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

影响2月加密货币市场的最重要的事件之一是特朗普决定对加拿大，墨西哥和中国征收关税。这一举动引起了人们对全球贸易紧张局势和通货膨胀的担忧，导致风险资产（包括加密货币）的下降。

As a result of this high volatility, market liquidity has decreased substantially. This is making it difficult for investors to quickly enter or exit positions, and it is also putting pressure on the cryptocurrency derivatives market. According to data from CoinGlass, a cryptocurrency on-chain data site, about $1 billion worth of cryptocurrency derivatives were liquidated in just one day during a recent period of volatility.

由于这种高波动性，市场流动性大大下降。这使得投资者很难迅速进入或退出职位，并且也对加密货币衍生品市场施加了压力。根据Coinglass的数据，Coinglass的链链数据站点的数据，在最近的波动性中，仅一天就清算了价值10亿美元的加密货币衍生品。

However, industry experts believe that the actual amount of liquidation that occurred is much larger than the figures reported by data aggregation sites. For example, Ben Zhou, CEO of global cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, estimates that the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation that occurred before and after the U.S.-triggered tariff war alone reached $8 billion to $10 billion.

但是，行业专家认为，实际发生的清算量比数据聚合站点报告的数字大得多。例如，全球加密货币交易所BYBIT的首席执行官Ben Zhou估计，仅在美国触发的关税战争之前和之后，就发生的加密货币清算总量达到了80亿美元至100亿美元。

Such large-scale liquidations have the effect of evaporating the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, especially the funds to purchase altcoins. Even during the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange in 2022, over $1 billion in liquidation occurred in the Bitcoin futures market in a single day. Following this event, the cryptocurrency market remained in a lull for several months.

这样的大规模清算具有蒸发加密货币市场的流动性，尤其是购买山寨币的资金。即使在2022年FTX交易所破产期间，比特币期货市场一日都发生了超过10亿美元的清算。此次活动之后，加密货币市场停留了几个月。

Adding to the challenges, the U.S. Federal Reserve has expressed its intention to maintain high benchmark interest rates for the time being. This makes it unlikely that the cryptocurrency market will experience a rise due to increased liquidity in the near future.

除挑战外，美国美联储表示目的是暂时保持高基准利率。这使得由于不久的将来的流动性增加，加密货币市场不太可能会增加。

Another factor that is impacting the cryptocurrency market is the delay in the U.S. government's process of making Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset. This move, which was highly anticipated by cryptocurrency investors, would have seen Bitcoin being incorporated into the U.S. government's reserves, alongside gold and other precious metals.

影响加密货币市场的另一个因素是美国政府使比特币成为战略储备资产的过程的延迟。加密货币投资者备受期待的这一举动，本来可以将比特币与黄金和其他贵金属一起纳入美国政府的储量中。

During a press conference on February 5, David Sax, the former chief operating officer of PayPal who was appointed as the White House's "Crypto Char," was asked about the timeline for bitcoin's strategic reserve assetization. In response, Sax stated that the White House working group is reviewing the feasibility of this measure.

在2月5日的新闻发布会上，被任命为白宫“加密货币”的前首席运营官戴维·萨克斯（David Sax）被询问了比特币战略储备资产的时间表。作为回应，萨克斯（Sax）表示，白宫工作组正在审查此措施的可行性。

This response, which fell short of the market sentiment that expected Bitcoin to be designated as a reserve asset upon Trump's inauguration, poured cold water on investors' expectations and further increased market uncertainty.

这种反应不足以达到市场情绪，预计比特币将被指定为特朗普就职典礼后的储备资产，因此将冷水倾倒在投资者的期望并进一步增加市场不确定性上。

Considering all of these factors, the cryptocurrency market in February 2025 is not expected to find short-term upward momentum for the time being. Some potential favorable factors that could still emerge include the incorporation of Bitcoin by the US sovereign wealth fund, the conclusion of the Ukraine-Russia war and the easing of cryptocurrency regulations in major countries. However, these developments are unlikely to yield tangible results in a short period of time.

考虑到所有这些因素，预计2025年2月的加密货币市场暂时不会在短期上向上势头。仍然可能出现的一些潜在有利因素包括美国主权财富基金会纳入比特币，乌克兰 - 俄罗斯战争的结论以及主要国家的加密货币法规的放松。但是，这些发展不太可能在短时间内产生切实的结果。

Overall, liquidity is decreasing, and if bitcoin prices fail to recapture the $100,000 mark and go sideways for a long time, additional adjustments may occur in the altcoin market. Considering the evaporated investment due to a series of large liquidations in the derivatives market, altcoins that are heavily affected by liquidity, such as meme coins and AI coins, need to be wary of the possibility of overselling.

总体而言，流动性正在下降，如果比特币价格未能夺回100,000美元的大关并长期侧面，则可能会在AltCoin市场中进行其他调整。考虑到由于衍生品市场的一系列大型清算而引起的蒸发投资，受到流动性影响的山寨币（例如Meme Coins和AI硬币）需要警惕过度销售的可能性。

Despite the challenges, there is also a possibility for a breakthrough liquidity supply to occur in the cryptocurrency market. One potential development that could lead to this outcome is the activation of stablecoins, which was mentioned by David Sax during his briefing on the Trump administration's key policies in the digital assets sector.

尽管面临挑战，但也有可能在加密货币市场中发生突破性流动性供应。可能导致这一结果的一个潜在发展是激活Stablecoins，David Sax在介绍特朗普政府在数字资产领域的主要政策时提到了这一点。

For now, it is interpreted that the activation of stablecoins will be a priority rather than the strategic reserve assetization of Bitcoin. The Republican Party, which has a majority in the federal parliament, has already proposed a regulation that would allow non-bank events to issue stablecoins, even if they are not necessarily banks.

就目前而言，据解释说，稳定币的激活将是优先事项，而不是比特币的战略储备资产。共和党在联邦议会中拥有多数席位，已经提出了一项法规，即使不一定是银行，也可以允许非银行事件签发稳定。

It is not yet clear what bill will finally be passed, but for now, big tech companies in Silicon Valley are also in a mood to be allowed to issue stablecoins.

目前尚不清楚最终将要通过的法案，但是就目前而言，硅谷的大型科技公司也有允许发行Stablecoins的心情。

As a result, there is a high possibility that the dollar stablecoin ecosystem will be organized and the number of companies issuing it will increase as early as the second half of this year. Dollar stablecoins are cryptocurrency whose value is linked to the U.S. dollar one-on-one. It is often issued as collateral for U.S. government bonds. In other words, an increase in the circulation of dollar stablecoins will naturally expand the demand for U.S. government bonds and ultimately contribute to strengthening dollar hegemony that the Trump administration wants.

结果，有可能组织美元的稳定生态系统，发行该生态系统的数量最早将在今年下半年增加。美元稳定币是加密货币，其价值与美元一对一链接。它通常是作为美国政府债券的抵押品发行的。换句话说，美元稳定币的发行自然会扩大对美国政府债券的需求，并最终有助于加强特朗普政府想要的美元霸权。

As a result, if the Trump administration increases the amount of stablecoins issued,

结果，如果特朗普政府增加了签发的稳定币的数量，