在特朗普政府引起的政策不確定性中，加密貨幣市場極端波動

自從美國總統唐納德·特朗普就職以來，加密貨幣市場一直處於極端波動。由於最初的美國 - 中國技術霸權競爭和地緣政治風險與特朗普政府意外行動造成的政策不確定性重疊，因此加密貨幣市場面臨的時期比以往任何時候都更加不可預測。

The cryptocurrency market has been experiencing extreme volatility since the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump. This volatility is being caused by a combination of factors, including the ongoing U.S.-China technology hegemony competition, geopolitical risks and the policy uncertainty created by the Trump administration's unexpected actions.

自美國總統唐納德·特朗普就職以來，加密貨幣市場一直在極端波動。這種波動是由多種因素組合引起的，包括正在進行的美國 - 中國技術霸權競爭，地緣政治風險以及特朗普政府意外行動所造成的政策不確定性。

One of the most significant events that impacted the cryptocurrency market in February was Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This move sparked concerns about global trade tensions and inflation within the United States, leading to a decline in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

影響2月加密貨幣市場的最重要的事件之一是特朗普決定對加拿大，墨西哥和中國征收關稅。這一舉動引起了人們對全球貿易緊張局勢和通貨膨脹的擔憂，導致風險資產（包括加密貨幣）的下降。

As a result of this high volatility, market liquidity has decreased substantially. This is making it difficult for investors to quickly enter or exit positions, and it is also putting pressure on the cryptocurrency derivatives market. According to data from CoinGlass, a cryptocurrency on-chain data site, about $1 billion worth of cryptocurrency derivatives were liquidated in just one day during a recent period of volatility.

由於這種高波動性，市場流動性大大下降。這使得投資者很難迅速進入或退出職位，並且也對加密貨幣衍生品市場施加了壓力。根據Coinglass的數據，Coinglass的鍊鍊數據站點的數據，在最近的波動性中，僅一天就清算了價值10億美元的加密貨幣衍生品。

However, industry experts believe that the actual amount of liquidation that occurred is much larger than the figures reported by data aggregation sites. For example, Ben Zhou, CEO of global cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, estimates that the total amount of cryptocurrency liquidation that occurred before and after the U.S.-triggered tariff war alone reached $8 billion to $10 billion.

但是，行業專家認為，實際發生的清算量比數據聚合站點報告的數字大得多。例如，全球加密貨幣交易所BYBIT的首席執行官Ben Zhou估計，僅在美國觸發的關稅戰爭之前和之後，就發生的加密貨幣清算總量達到了80億美元至100億美元。

Such large-scale liquidations have the effect of evaporating the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, especially the funds to purchase altcoins. Even during the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange in 2022, over $1 billion in liquidation occurred in the Bitcoin futures market in a single day. Following this event, the cryptocurrency market remained in a lull for several months.

這樣的大規模清算具有蒸發加密貨幣市場的流動性，尤其是購買山寨幣的資金。即使在2022年FTX交易所破產期間，比特幣期貨市場一日都發生了超過10億美元的清算。此次活動之後，加密貨幣市場停留了幾個月。

Adding to the challenges, the U.S. Federal Reserve has expressed its intention to maintain high benchmark interest rates for the time being. This makes it unlikely that the cryptocurrency market will experience a rise due to increased liquidity in the near future.

除挑戰外，美國美聯儲表示目的是暫時保持高基準利率。這使得由於不久的將來的流動性增加，加密貨幣市場不太可能會增加。

Another factor that is impacting the cryptocurrency market is the delay in the U.S. government's process of making Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset. This move, which was highly anticipated by cryptocurrency investors, would have seen Bitcoin being incorporated into the U.S. government's reserves, alongside gold and other precious metals.

影響加密貨幣市場的另一個因素是美國政府使比特幣成為戰略儲備資產的過程的延遲。加密貨幣投資者備受期待的這一舉動，本來可以將比特幣與黃金和其他貴金屬一起納入美國政府的儲量中。

During a press conference on February 5, David Sax, the former chief operating officer of PayPal who was appointed as the White House's "Crypto Char," was asked about the timeline for bitcoin's strategic reserve assetization. In response, Sax stated that the White House working group is reviewing the feasibility of this measure.

在2月5日的新聞發布會上，被任命為白宮“加密貨幣”的前首席運營官戴維·薩克斯（David Sax）被詢問了比特幣戰略儲備資產的時間表。作為回應，薩克斯（Sax）表示，白宮工作組正在審查此措施的可行性。

This response, which fell short of the market sentiment that expected Bitcoin to be designated as a reserve asset upon Trump's inauguration, poured cold water on investors' expectations and further increased market uncertainty.

這種反應不足以達到市場情緒，預計比特幣將被指定為特朗普就職典禮後的儲備資產，因此將冷水傾倒在投資者的期望並進一步增加市場不確定性上。

Considering all of these factors, the cryptocurrency market in February 2025 is not expected to find short-term upward momentum for the time being. Some potential favorable factors that could still emerge include the incorporation of Bitcoin by the US sovereign wealth fund, the conclusion of the Ukraine-Russia war and the easing of cryptocurrency regulations in major countries. However, these developments are unlikely to yield tangible results in a short period of time.

考慮到所有這些因素，預計2025年2月的加密貨幣市場暫時不會在短期上向上勢頭。仍然可能出現的一些潛在有利因素包括美國主權財富基金會納入比特幣，烏克蘭 - 俄羅斯戰爭的結論以及主要國家的加密貨幣法規的放鬆。但是，這些發展不太可能在短時間內產生切實的結果。

Overall, liquidity is decreasing, and if bitcoin prices fail to recapture the $100,000 mark and go sideways for a long time, additional adjustments may occur in the altcoin market. Considering the evaporated investment due to a series of large liquidations in the derivatives market, altcoins that are heavily affected by liquidity, such as meme coins and AI coins, need to be wary of the possibility of overselling.

總體而言，流動性正在下降，如果比特幣價格未能奪回100,000美元的大關並長期側面，則可能會在AltCoin市場中進行其他調整。考慮到由於衍生品市場的一系列大型清算而引起的蒸發投資，受到流動性影響的山寨幣（例如Meme Coins和AI硬幣）需要警惕過度銷售的可能性。

Despite the challenges, there is also a possibility for a breakthrough liquidity supply to occur in the cryptocurrency market. One potential development that could lead to this outcome is the activation of stablecoins, which was mentioned by David Sax during his briefing on the Trump administration's key policies in the digital assets sector.

儘管面臨挑戰，但也有可能在加密貨幣市場中發生突破性流動性供應。可能導致這一結果的一個潛在發展是激活Stablecoins，David Sax在介紹特朗普政府在數字資產領域的主要政策時提到了這一點。

For now, it is interpreted that the activation of stablecoins will be a priority rather than the strategic reserve assetization of Bitcoin. The Republican Party, which has a majority in the federal parliament, has already proposed a regulation that would allow non-bank events to issue stablecoins, even if they are not necessarily banks.

就目前而言，據解釋說，穩定幣的激活將是優先事項，而不是比特幣的戰略儲備資產。共和黨在聯邦議會中擁有多數席位，已經提出了一項法規，即使不一定是銀行，也可以允許非銀行事件簽發穩定。

It is not yet clear what bill will finally be passed, but for now, big tech companies in Silicon Valley are also in a mood to be allowed to issue stablecoins.

目前尚不清楚最終將要通過的法案，但是就目前而言，矽谷的大型科技公司也有允許發行Stablecoins的心情。

As a result, there is a high possibility that the dollar stablecoin ecosystem will be organized and the number of companies issuing it will increase as early as the second half of this year. Dollar stablecoins are cryptocurrency whose value is linked to the U.S. dollar one-on-one. It is often issued as collateral for U.S. government bonds. In other words, an increase in the circulation of dollar stablecoins will naturally expand the demand for U.S. government bonds and ultimately contribute to strengthening dollar hegemony that the Trump administration wants.

結果，有可能組織美元的穩定生態系統，發行該生態系統的數量最早將在今年下半年增加。美元穩定幣是加密貨幣，其價值與美元一對一鏈接。它通常是作為美國政府債券的抵押品發行的。換句話說，美元穩定幣的發行自然會擴大對美國政府債券的需求，並最終有助於加強特朗普政府想要的美元霸權。

As a result, if the Trump administration increases the amount of stablecoins issued,

結果，如果特朗普政府增加了簽發的穩定幣的數量，