比特币减半临近，加密鲸鱼保持稳定，引发市场不安

随着第四次比特币减半的临近，尽管加密货币总市值下降了 2.4% 至 2.36 万亿美元，但加密鲸鱼仍继续捍卫比特币 6.1 万美元的支撑位。尽管摩根大通分析师预测比特币会出现短期疲软，但链上数据分析显示，加密鲸鱼已经积累了价值超过 17 亿美元的比特币。

Crypto Whales Hold the Line as Bitcoin's Halving Approaches, Triggering Market Jitters

随着比特币减半临近，加密鲸鱼坚守阵地，引发市场不安

In the lead-up to the highly anticipated Bitcoin (BTC) halving in 2024, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a period of uncertainty, with the total market cap shrinking by 2.4 percent in the past 24 hours to approximately $2.36 trillion. However, despite the market volatility, crypto whales have remained steadfast, accumulating over $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in recent days. This unwavering support suggests that long-term investors remain bullish on the asset's long-term prospects.

在备受期待的 2024 年比特币减半之前，加密货币市场经历了一段不确定时期，总市值在过去 24 小时内缩水 2.4% 至约 2.36 万亿美元。然而，尽管市场波动，加密鲸鱼仍然坚定不移，最近几天积累了价值超过 17 亿美元的比特币。这种坚定不移的支持表明长期投资者仍然看好该资产的长期前景。

JPMorgan Analysts Sound Caution on Short-Term Weakness Post-Halving

摩根大通分析师对减半后的短期疲软持谨慎态度

In a note to investors, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) analysts have cautioned that Bitcoin's price could trigger a crypto market downturn following the halving, citing overbought conditions based on the analysis of Open Interest in BTC futures. They believe that the reduction in Bitcoin supply, coupled with the heightened interest from institutional investors, could lead to a sell-off.

摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）分析师在给投资者的一份报告中警告说，比特币价格可能会在减半后引发加密货币市场低迷，理由是基于对比特币期货未平仓合约分析的超买情况。他们认为，比特币供应量的减少，加上机构投资者兴趣的增加，可能会导致抛售。

On-Chain Data Reveals Long-Term Investor Confidence

链上数据揭示了长期投资者的信心

Despite the short-term concerns raised by JPMorgan, on-chain data provided by CryptoQuant paints a more optimistic picture. According to their analysis, crypto whales have accumulated over 27,700 Bitcoins in recent days, indicating a strong belief in Bitcoin's long-term value. This accumulation trend suggests that long-term investors are undeterred by short-term market fluctuations and remain committed to holding their positions.

尽管摩根大通提出了短期担忧，但 CryptoQuant 提供的链上数据描绘了一幅更为乐观的景象。根据他们的分析，加密鲸鱼最近几天已经积累了超过 27,700 个比特币，这表明他们对比特币的长期价值抱有坚定的信念。这种积累趋势表明，长期投资者不会被短期市场波动吓倒，并继续坚持持有头寸。

Bitcoin's Post-Halving Bullish Outlook

比特币减半后的看涨前景

Historically, Bitcoin halving events have had a significant impact on the price of the cryptocurrency, leading to bull markets and increased adoption. The upcoming halving, which will reduce the daily Bitcoin supply from 900 to 450 coins, is expected to further fuel the demand for the asset. Institutional investors, in particular, have shown a growing interest in Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a potential long-term store of value.

从历史上看，比特币减半事件对加密货币的价格产生了重大影响，导致牛市和更多的采用。即将到来的减半将使每日比特币供应量从 900 个减少至 450 个，预计将进一步刺激对该资产的需求。尤其是机构投资者对比特币表现出越来越大的兴趣，将其视为通胀对冲工具和潜在的长期价值储存手段。

Hong Kong and US ETF Approvals Boost Buying Pressure

香港和美国ETF获批增加购买压力

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong is expected to further increase the buying pressure on Bitcoin. Additionally, the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has already demonstrated the significant demand for these instruments, which allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of owning and storing the cryptocurrency directly.

最近香港批准现货比特币和以太坊ETF，预计将进一步增加比特币的购买压力。此外，现货比特币 ETF 在美国的成功已经证明了对这些工具的巨大需求，这些工具使投资者能够获得比特币的投资，而无需直接拥有和存储加密货币的复杂性。

Bitcoin Price Action: Consolidation and Support Levels

比特币价格走势：盘整和支撑位

Bitcoin's price has retested the $61,000 support level several times in recent weeks, indicating that this level remains crucial for the short-term price action. A break below this support could trigger a correction towards the next major support level of around $56,200, while a rebound could lead to a rally towards a new all-time high.

最近几周，比特币的价格多次重新测试 61,000 美元的支撑位，表明该水平对于短期价格走势仍然至关重要。跌破该支撑位可能会引发向下一个主要支撑位 56,200 美元左右的修正，而反弹则可能导致反弹至新的历史高点。

Traders Seek Refuge in Stablecoins Amid Market Volatility

在市场波动中，交易者寻求稳定币的庇护

As the crypto market continues to experience volatility, many traders have sought refuge in the stablecoins sector. Stablecoins, such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), have a daily average trading volume of approximately $88.5 billion, accounting for a significant portion of the total industry trading volume. This flight to safety reflects the current uncertainty in the market and the need for investors to preserve capital.

随着加密货币市场持续波动，许多交易者纷纷转向稳定币领域寻求庇护。 Tether（USDT）和USD Coin（USDC）等稳定币日均交易量约为885亿美元，占行业总交易量的很大一部分。这种避险行为反映了当前市场的不确定性以及投资者保存资本的需要。

Market Sentiments Shift from Bullish to Bearish

市场情绪从看涨转向看跌

According to market intelligence platform Santiment, crypto traders have shifted from a bullish narrative to bearish sentiments. The decline in FOMO (fear of missing out) combined with an increase in FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) suggests that investors are becoming more cautious and apprehensive about the market's short-term prospects. However, Santiment notes that this shift in sentiment could be a positive indicator, signaling an imminent market correction and potential recovery.

根据市场情报平台 Santiment 的数据，加密货币交易者的情绪已从看涨转向看跌。 FOMO（害怕错过）的下降加上 FUD（恐惧、不确定性和怀疑）的增加表明投资者对市场的短期前景变得更加谨慎和担忧。然而，桑蒂门特指出，这种情绪的转变可能是一个积极的指标，预示着市场即将调整和潜在的复苏。

Conclusion

结论

The lead-up to the Bitcoin halving has created a mixed atmosphere in the crypto market, with both optimism and caution prevailing among investors. Crypto whales and long-term investors remain bullish on Bitcoin's long-term potential, while JPMorgan analysts warn of potential short-term weakness. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong and the United States is expected to boost buying pressure, but the current market volatility has led many traders to seek refuge in stablecoins. As the halving approaches, investors will be closely monitoring Bitcoin's price action and the market sentiment to gauge the potential impact of this significant event.

比特币减半前夕，加密货币市场气氛复杂，投资者既乐观又谨慎。加密鲸鱼和长期投资者仍然看好比特币的长期潜力，而摩根大通分析师则警告比特币可能出现短期疲软。香港和美国现货比特币ETF的批准预计将增加购买压力，但当前的市场波动导致许多交易者寻求稳定币的避难。随着减半的临近，投资者将密切关注比特币的价格走势和市场情绪，以评估这一重大事件的潜在影响。