加密巨头以“左曲线”心态在熊市中蓬勃发展

在 2021-2023 年熊市期间，经验丰富的加密货币交易者采取了“左曲线”思维，即尽管市场波动，仍购买并持有加密货币。随着牛市的增强，这种以比特币为代表的方法现在被证明是卓有成效的。推动这一激增的潜在因素包括主权债务、货币贬值以及机构投资加密货币以对冲法定货币贬值。

The Crypto Legends: Embracing the "Left Curve" Mindset in the Bear Market

加密传奇：熊市中拥抱“左倾”心态

While the recent successes of certain traders may have garnered attention, the true crypto titans lie among those who adopted the "Left Curve" mindset during the crypto winter that spanned from 2021 to 2023. This approach, championed by Arthur Hayes, the seasoned crypto trader and co-founder of Bitmex, involves steadfastly buying and accumulating cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin, as the bull market gains momentum.

虽然某些交易员最近的成功可能引起了人们的关注，但真正的加密货币巨头是那些在 2021 年至 2023 年的加密货币寒冬期间采取“左曲线”思维的人。这种方法由经验丰富的加密货币交易员 Arthur Hayes 倡导。 Bitmex 联合创始人，随着牛市势头增强，坚定地购买和积累加密货币，尤其是比特币。

Hayes attributes the current crypto surge to a confluence of factors, including sovereign debt, currency debasement, and the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation. Hayes emphasizes that major economic powerhouses like the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan are intentionally weakening their currencies to manage government debts. This strategy, coupled with the availability of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) for traditional financial institutions (TradFi), has spurred institutional investment in cryptocurrencies.

海耶斯将当前的加密货币激增归因于多种因素的综合作用，包括主权债务、货币贬值以及人们日益认识到加密货币可以作为法定货币贬值的对冲工具。海耶斯强调，美国、中国、欧盟和日本等主要经济强国正在有意压低本国货币以管理政府债务。这一策略，加上传统金融机构 (TradFi) 的比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的可用性，刺激了机构对加密货币的投资。

As institutions seek to protect their clients' wealth from currency devaluation, this influx of institutional capital has further fueled the crypto surge, validating the perception of crypto as a reliable defense against fiat currency depreciation. Understanding the concept of nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is crucial to comprehending the impact of economic policies on the crypto market. Hayes explains that GDP incorporates both inflation and real economic growth. Governments often resort to borrowing to fund projects, hoping to stimulate growth and attract investors with attractive yields. However, politicians often manipulate the system by ensuring government bond yields remain below GDP growth rates. This enables them to increase spending without raising taxes, but it leads to poor investment decisions and economic stagnation. Consequently, bond yields become distorted, leading central banks to print more money to alleviate government debt.

随着机构寻求保护客户的财富免受货币贬值的影响，机构资本的涌入进一步推动了加密货币的激增，验证了加密货币作为抵御法定货币贬值的可靠防御手段的看法。了解名义国内生产总值（GDP）的概念对于理解经济政策对加密货币市场的影响至关重要。海耶斯解释说，GDP 包含了通货膨胀和实际经济增长。政府经常通过借贷来资助项目，希望刺激增长并以有吸引力的收益率吸引投资者。然而，政客经常通过确保政府债券收益率低于 GDP 增长率来操纵这一体系。这使他们能够在不增税的情况下增加支出，但会导致糟糕的投资决策和经济停滞。因此，债券收益率变得扭曲，导致央行印制更多货币来减轻政府债务。

When real yields become negative, traditional government bonds lose their appeal as investments. Investors are compelled to explore alternative assets that can outpace inflation, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which have a finite supply and are immune to the debasement affecting fiat currencies. Hayes anticipates that the polarized political landscape in the United States, particularly leading up to the 2024 presidential election, will exacerbate this trend. With both major parties competing for power and promising expansive spending programs, the incentive to maintain negative real yields and facilitate unchecked borrowing will intensify.

当实际收益率变为负值时，传统政府债券就失去了投资吸引力。投资者被迫探索能够超越通胀的替代资产，例如比特币等加密货币，它们的供应量有限，并且不受法定货币贬值的影响。海耶斯预计，美国的两极分化政治格局，尤其是 2024 年总统大选之前的政治格局，将加剧这一趋势。由于两大党都在争夺权力并承诺扩大支出计划，维持负实际收益率和促进不受控制的借贷的动机将会增强。

Hayes urges crypto traders to take advantage of recent market downturns and token launches to strategically accumulate positions. He believes that the overriding macroeconomic narrative of currency devaluation and relentless money printing will continue to propel the crypto bull market, rewarding those who embrace the "Left Curve" mentality and hold their ground.

海耶斯敦促加密货币交易者利用最近的市场低迷和代币发行来战略性地积累头寸。他认为，货币贬值和无情印钞的宏观经济叙事将继续推动加密货币牛市，奖励那些拥抱“左倾”心态并坚守阵地的人。

Key Takeaways:

要点：

• The "Left Curve" mindset involves accumulating cryptocurrencies during bear markets and holding them through bull market rallies.
• Currency debasement, sovereign debt, and institutional investment are major drivers of the current crypto surge.
• Bitcoin's finite supply and immunity to inflation make it a compelling hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
• Negative real yields and political polarization contribute to the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies as alternative investments.
• Crypto traders are advised to seize opportunities to strategically accumulate positions during market dips and token launches.

“左曲线”心态包括在熊市期间积累加密货币，并在牛市反弹时持有它们。货币贬值、主权债务和机构投资是当前加密货币激增的主要驱动力。比特币的有限供应和抗通胀能力使其成为一种引人注目的对冲工具负的实际收益率和政治两极分化增加了加密货币作为另类投资的吸引力。建议加密货币交易者抓住机会，在市场下跌和代币发行期间战略性地积累头寸。