加密市场以三年来最差的表现结束了

贸易公司QCP Capital的一份新分析报告包含一个令人不安的统计数据：比特币，以太坊和标准普尔500指数市场以三年来最差的表现结束了该季度。

Cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by over $160 billion since Friday, marking a difficult start to the second quarter as traders continue to search for bullish momentum following a quarter that saw the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and S&P 500 index markets experience their worst performance in three years.

自周五以来，加密货币市值减少了1600亿美元，这标志着第二季度的一个艰难开端，因为交易者在一个四分之一之后继续寻找看涨的势头，这使比特币，以太坊和标准普尔500指数市场经历了三年来最差的表现。

According to QCP Capital, the sharp drop on March 28 was driven by large expirations at the end of the quarter, when dealers sold aggressively, resulting in a shift in funding on perpetuals from stable to negative. The reduction in leverage in the crypto market coincided with macroeconomic news, with core inflation coming in above expectations, confirming more robust price growth in February, while consumer spending remained subdued.

根据QCP Capital的说法，3月28日的急剧下降是由本季度末大量到期驱动的，当时经销商会积极销售，从而导致永久性资金从稳定到负面变化。加密货币市场的杠杆率降低与宏观经济新闻相吻合，核心通货膨胀率超过预期，确认了2月份的价格增长，而消费者支出仍然柔和。

Markets are awaiting the next potential catalyst, which will be Trump's "Release Day" on April 2, when the U.S. president will unveil a broad set of retaliatory tariffs.

市场正在等待下一个潜在的催化剂，这将是4月2日特朗普的“发行日”，届时美国总统将推出广泛的报复性关税。

With consumer confidence at a 12-year low and stock markets already hurting, having suffered a 4-5% weekly drop, the timing for these statements couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could heighten recession fears and send risk assets into a downward spiral. However, political theater often leaves room to reassess positions, and a softer-than-expected introduction of new measures could give markets a brief respite.

由于消费者的信心为12年的低点，股票市场已经受到伤害，每周下降了4-5％，因此这些陈述的时机并不会更糟。一个真正的风险是，广泛而积极进取的政权可能会增加衰退的恐惧，并将风险资产置于下降的螺旋中。但是，政治剧院经常留出重新评估职位的空间，而超过预期的新措施可能会给市场带来短暂的喘息。

Analysts at QCP Capital note that volatility indicators paint a mixed picture, with the VIX index remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equity markets. At the same time, cryptocurrency volatility, contrary to the sell-off, is declining despite similar price declines and massive losses on Friday.

QCP Capital的分析师指出，波动率指标的描绘了一幅混合图片，VIX指数在22岁时保持升高，这反映了股票市场的不安。同时，与抛售相反的加密货币波动率在周五的价格下降和巨大损失下降，但仍在下降。

Activity before the opening of Asian markets had a bullish bias. Buyers bought options with upper boundaries ($85,000- $90,000 strikes) and sold lower boundary risks ($75,000 strikes), which can be interpreted as a bet on a more confident start to the second quarter.

亚洲市场开放之前的活动具有看涨的偏见。买家购买了具有上边界（$ 85,000- $ 90,000的罢工）并出售下边界风险（$ 75,000罢工）的期权，这可以解释为在第二季度更自信的开端。

This strategy allows traders to capitalize on Bitcoin's potential rise above $90,000 with protection against a fall below $75,000. Implementation requires access to the options market and an understanding of options pricing mechanisms.

该策略使交易者能够利用比特币的潜在上升高于90,000美元的潜力上涨，而在低于75,000美元以下的保护范围内。实施需要访问期权市场，并了解期权定价机制。

Historically, April has been a seasonally strong month for cryptocurrencies, although analysts at QCP Capital remain cautious. Analysts predict the market is likely to move in a horizontal corridor while markets digest a host of macroeconomic risks and wait for clearer direction.

从历史上看，尽管QCP Capital的分析师仍然谨慎，但四月一直是加密货币的季节性强年月份。分析师预测，市场可能会在水平走廊中移动，而市场则消化了许多宏观经济风险，并等待更清晰的方向。

In addition to Trump's tariff announcement, other key macroeconomic events are expected to trigger additional volatility:

除了特朗普的关税宣布外，其他关键的宏观经济事件有望引发额外的波动：