加密市場以三年來最差的表現結束了

貿易公司QCP Capital的一份新分析報告包含一個令人不安的統計數據：比特幣，以太坊和標準普爾500指數市場以三年來最差的表現結束了該季度。

Cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by over $160 billion since Friday, marking a difficult start to the second quarter as traders continue to search for bullish momentum following a quarter that saw the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and S&P 500 index markets experience their worst performance in three years.

自周五以來，加密貨幣市值減少了1600億美元，這標誌著第二季度的一個艱難開端，因為交易者在一個四分之一之後繼續尋找看漲的勢頭，這使比特幣，以太坊和標準普爾500指數市場經歷了三年來最差的表現。

According to QCP Capital, the sharp drop on March 28 was driven by large expirations at the end of the quarter, when dealers sold aggressively, resulting in a shift in funding on perpetuals from stable to negative. The reduction in leverage in the crypto market coincided with macroeconomic news, with core inflation coming in above expectations, confirming more robust price growth in February, while consumer spending remained subdued.

根據QCP Capital的說法，3月28日的急劇下降是由本季度末大量到期驅動的，當時經銷商會積極銷售，從而導致永久性資金從穩定到負面變化。加密貨幣市場的槓桿率降低與宏觀經濟新聞相吻合，核心通貨膨脹率超過預期，確認了2月份的價格增長，而消費者支出仍然柔和。

Markets are awaiting the next potential catalyst, which will be Trump's "Release Day" on April 2, when the U.S. president will unveil a broad set of retaliatory tariffs.

市場正在等待下一個潛在的催化劑，這將是4月2日特朗普的“發行日”，屆時美國總統將推出廣泛的報復性關稅。

With consumer confidence at a 12-year low and stock markets already hurting, having suffered a 4-5% weekly drop, the timing for these statements couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could heighten recession fears and send risk assets into a downward spiral. However, political theater often leaves room to reassess positions, and a softer-than-expected introduction of new measures could give markets a brief respite.

由於消費者的信心為12年的低點，股票市場已經受到傷害，每週下降了4-5％，因此這些陳述的時機並不會更糟。一個真正的風險是，廣泛而積極進取的政權可能會增加衰退的恐懼，並將風險資產置於下降的螺旋中。但是，政治劇院經常留出重新評估職位的空間，而超過預期的新措施可能會給市場帶來短暫的喘息。

Analysts at QCP Capital note that volatility indicators paint a mixed picture, with the VIX index remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equity markets. At the same time, cryptocurrency volatility, contrary to the sell-off, is declining despite similar price declines and massive losses on Friday.

QCP Capital的分析師指出，波動率指標的描繪了一幅混合圖片，VIX指數在22歲時保持升高，這反映了股票市場的不安。同時，與拋售相反的加密貨幣波動率在周五的價格下降和巨大損失下降，但仍在下降。

Activity before the opening of Asian markets had a bullish bias. Buyers bought options with upper boundaries ($85,000- $90,000 strikes) and sold lower boundary risks ($75,000 strikes), which can be interpreted as a bet on a more confident start to the second quarter.

亞洲市場開放之前的活動具有看漲的偏見。買家購買了具有上邊界（$ 85,000- $ 90,000的罷工）並出售下邊界風險（$ 75,000罷工）的期權，這可以解釋為在第二季度更自信的開端。

This strategy allows traders to capitalize on Bitcoin's potential rise above $90,000 with protection against a fall below $75,000. Implementation requires access to the options market and an understanding of options pricing mechanisms.

該策略使交易者能夠利用比特幣的潛在上升高於90,000美元的潛力上漲，而在低於75,000美元以下的保護範圍內。實施需要訪問期權市場，並了解期權定價機制。

Historically, April has been a seasonally strong month for cryptocurrencies, although analysts at QCP Capital remain cautious. Analysts predict the market is likely to move in a horizontal corridor while markets digest a host of macroeconomic risks and wait for clearer direction.

從歷史上看，儘管QCP Capital的分析師仍然謹慎，但四月一直是加密貨幣的季節性強年月份。分析師預測，市場可能會在水平走廊中移動，而市場則消化了許多宏觀經濟風險，並等待更清晰的方向。

In addition to Trump's tariff announcement, other key macroeconomic events are expected to trigger additional volatility:

除了特朗普的關稅宣布外，其他關鍵的宏觀經濟事件有望引發額外的波動：