2025 年加密货币市场预测和警告：Arthur Hayes、Robert Kiyosaki 等

加密货币市场又经历了多事的一周，对 2025 年提出了重大预测和警告。Arthur Hayes 概述了 2025 年第一季度的市场轨迹

Key crypto predictions and warnings for 2025 emerged this week, shaping the narrative around the digital asset landscape. Here are the highlights.

本周出现了 2025 年的关键加密货币预测和警告，塑造了围绕数字资产格局的叙述。以下是亮点。

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, outlined his predictions for the crypto market in Q1 2025. According to Hayes, the market will peak in mid-March, followed by a severe correction.

BitMEX 前首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 概述了他对 2025 年第一季度加密货币市场的预测。根据 Hayes 的预测，市场将在 3 月中旬达到顶峰，随后将出现大幅回调。

Hayes attempted to gauge whether the bullish momentum surrounding Trump's election victory will be sustained. He noted that the incoming president may be unable to fulfill all his campaign promises, leading to a shift in market sentiment. However, increasing dollar liquidity might counter the disappointment in the short term.

海耶斯试图评估围绕特朗普选举胜利的看涨势头是否会持续。他指出，即将上任的总统可能无法履行所有竞选承诺，导致市场情绪发生转变。然而，美元流动性的增加可能会抵消短期的失望情绪。

Hayes highlighted the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the decline of the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) and the US Treasury's General Account (TGA) since Bitcoin bottomed in Q3 2022. The Fed's quantitative tightening will remove $180 billion in liquidity by the end of Q1 2025. Still, the recent adjustment to the RRP rate is expected to result in a $237 billion liquidity injection, yielding a net positive liquidity of $57 billion.

海耶斯强调了自比特币于 2022 年第三季度触底以来，比特币价格与美联储逆回购工具（RRP）和美国财政部普通账户（TGA）下降之间的相关性。美联储的量化紧缩将在年底前消除 1800 亿美元的流动性。 2025 年第一季度。不过，最近对 RRP 利率的调整预计将导致 2,370 亿美元的流动性注入，产生 57 美元的净正流动性 十亿。

This liquidity is expected to fuel the crypto market. Arthur Hayes remained bullish on the crypto market in the near term but advised caution as the first quarter concludes.

这种流动性预计将推动加密货币市场的发展。 Arthur Hayes 短期内仍看好加密货币市场，但在第一季度结束时建议谨慎行事。

“Sell in the late stages of Q1, then chill,” Hayes advised.

海耶斯建议：“在第一季度末阶段卖出，然后冷静下来。”

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, warned that the biggest market crash in history is imminent.

畅销书《富爸爸穷爸爸》的作者罗伯特清崎警告说，历史上最大的市场崩盘即将来临。

Kiyosaki doubled down on his long-standing predictions, attributing the upcoming crash to decisions made during the 2008 financial crisis. He argued that leaders, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, prioritized bank bailouts over supporting ordinary citizens.

清崎对他长期以来的预测加倍强调，将即将到来的崩盘归因于 2008 年金融危机期间做出的决定。他认为，包括前美联储主席本·伯南克在内的领导人将银行救助置于支持普通公民之上。

Looking ahead to 2025, he predicted that expensive assets like houses, gold, silver, and Bitcoin will soon be on sale. He also noted that the world was on the brink of war, which, in his view, was exacerbating the situation.

展望 2025 年，他预测房屋、黄金、白银和比特币等昂贵资产很快就会出售。他还指出，世界正处于战争边缘，他认为这正在加剧局势。

“Please be smart. Many expensive assets will go on sale. I'll be buying more real assets with fake US dollars,” Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter.

“请聪明点。许多昂贵的资产将被出售。我将用假美元购买更多真实资产，”清崎在推特上写道。

Meanwhile, over the past week, Bitcoin's price dropped from a peak of $102,000 to as low as $92,000. At press time, BTC was trading at $94,932 after recovering slightly.

与此同时，过去一周，比特币的价格从 102,000 美元的峰值跌至 92,000 美元的低点。截至发稿，BTC小幅回升后交易价格为94,932美元。

Shiba Inu, the second largest meme coin, announced the launch of a new token in its ecosystem on January 2. The team stated that TREAT will be launching this month.

第二大模因币 Shiba Inu 于 1 月 2 日宣布在其生态系统中推出新代币。该团队表示 TREAT 将于本月推出。

TREAT is designed for governance and rewards within the broader ecosystem as its developers aim to transform Shiba Inu from a meme coin into an inventive blockchain network.

TREAT 专为更广泛的生态系统内的治理和奖励而设计，因为其开发人员的目标是将柴犬从模因硬币转变为创造性的区块链网络。

However, TREAT will not be available to the US audience. The announcement included a disclaimer stating that the new meme coin is not intended for the US without providing details. This exclusion could be related to potential regulatory or licensing challenges with US exchanges.

然而，TREAT 将不会向美国观众开放。该公告包括一份免责声明，指出新的模因硬币不适用于美国，但未提供详细信息。这种排除可能与美国交易所的潜在监管或许可挑战有关。

Shiba Inu prices have been experiencing a downtrend over the past week. The launch of the TREAT token is anticipated to boost SHIB prices.

过去一周，柴犬价格一直呈下降趋势。 TREAT 代币的推出预计将推高 SHIB 价格。

At least 13 US states, out of the total 50, are working on creating Bitcoin reserves, according to Dennis Porter. Porter is the CEO and co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund (SAC).

丹尼斯·波特 (Dennis Porter) 表示，美国 50 个州中至少有 13 个州正在致力于建立比特币储备。波特是中本聪行动基金（SAC）的首席执行官兼联合创始人。

“I can confirm that at least 13 states are working on ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ legislation. January is going to be a record-breaking month for Bitcoin policy,” Porter tweeted on January 3.

“我可以确认至少有 13 个州正在制定‘战略比特币储备’立法。 1 月将是比特币政策破纪录的一个月，”波特于 1 月 3 日发推文。

Porter also added that a ‘tidal wave of Bitcoin policy’ is coming in 2025.

波特还补充说，“比特币政策浪潮”将于 2025 年到来。

As Bitcoin becomes a strong contender to traditional assets like gold, there is rising global debate around BTC’s role as a national reserve asset. It was President-elect Donald Trump who initiated conversations around government Bitcoin reserves.

随着比特币成为黄金等传统资产的有力竞争者，全球围绕比特币作为国家储备资产的角色的争论日益激烈。当选总统唐纳德·特朗普发起了有关政府比特币储备的对话。

Several US lawmakers have already endorsed state Bitcoin reserves. Lawmakers from Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and many others have pushed for BTC reserve legislation.

几位美国立法者已经认可国家比特币储备。来自德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州和许多其他州的立法者一直在推动比特币储备立法。

Coinbase has disclosed that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has instructed banks to pause Bitcoin services until new guidelines are established, sparking concerns about the future of cryptocurrency services offered through traditional banking channels.

Coinbase 透露，联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）已指示银行暂停比特币服务，直到新的指导方针制定为止，这引发了人们对通过传统银行渠道提供的加密货币服务的未来的担忧。

Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, revealed that the FDIC has sent additional letters urging banks to scale back their crypto-related operations. According to Grewal, these letters, which address everything from Bitcoin transactions to more advanced crypto services, are part of a wider effort to curb the growth of the crypto industry.

Coinbase 首席法务官 Paul Grewal 透露，FDIC 已发出更多信件，敦促银行缩减与加密货币相关的业务。 Grewal 表示，这些信件涉及从比特币交易到更先进的加密服务的所有内容，是遏制加密行业增长的更广泛努力的一部分。

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, also emphasized that these FDIC directives seem designed to deter banks from engaging in any crypto-related business.

Ripple 的首席法务官 Stuart Alderoty 也强调，这些 FDIC 指令似乎旨在阻止银行从事任何与加密货币相关的业务。

“Note that FDIC magically found TWO more pause letters in this search after saying before that it had complied with an earlier Court order. It’

“请注意，FDIC 在这次搜索中神奇地发现了另外两封暂停信，此前他们曾表示已遵守了早些时候的法院命令。它'