2025 年加密貨幣市場預測與警告：Arthur Hayes、Robert Kiyosaki 等

加密貨幣市場又經歷了多事的一周，對 2025 年提出了重大預測和警告。

Key crypto predictions and warnings for 2025 emerged this week, shaping the narrative around the digital asset landscape. Here are the highlights.

本週出現了 2025 年的關鍵加密貨幣預測和警告，塑造了圍繞數位資產格局的敘述。以下是亮點。

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, outlined his predictions for the crypto market in Q1 2025. According to Hayes, the market will peak in mid-March, followed by a severe correction.

BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 概述了他對 2025 年第一季加密貨幣市場的預測。

Hayes attempted to gauge whether the bullish momentum surrounding Trump's election victory will be sustained. He noted that the incoming president may be unable to fulfill all his campaign promises, leading to a shift in market sentiment. However, increasing dollar liquidity might counter the disappointment in the short term.

海耶斯試圖評估圍繞川普選舉勝利的看漲勢頭是否會持續。他指出，即將上任的總統可能無法履行所有競選承諾，導致市場情緒轉變。然而，美元流動性的增加可能會抵消短期的失望情緒。

Hayes highlighted the correlation between Bitcoin's price and the decline of the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) and the US Treasury's General Account (TGA) since Bitcoin bottomed in Q3 2022. The Fed's quantitative tightening will remove $180 billion in liquidity by the end of Q1 2025. Still, the recent adjustment to the RRP rate is expected to result in a $237 billion liquidity injection, yielding a net positive liquidity of $57 billion.

海耶斯強調了自比特幣於2022 年第三季觸底以來，比特幣價格與聯準會逆回購工具（RRP）和美國財政部普通帳戶（TGA）下降之間的相關性。將在年底前消除1800 億美元的流動性。

This liquidity is expected to fuel the crypto market. Arthur Hayes remained bullish on the crypto market in the near term but advised caution as the first quarter concludes.

這種流動性預計將推動加密貨幣市場的發展。 Arthur Hayes 短期內仍看好加密貨幣市場，但在第一季結束時建議謹慎行事。

“Sell in the late stages of Q1, then chill,” Hayes advised.

海耶斯建議：“在第一季末階段賣出，然後冷靜下來。”

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, warned that the biggest market crash in history is imminent.

暢銷書《富爸爸窮爸爸》的作者羅伯特清崎警告說，史上最大的市場崩盤即將來臨。

Kiyosaki doubled down on his long-standing predictions, attributing the upcoming crash to decisions made during the 2008 financial crisis. He argued that leaders, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, prioritized bank bailouts over supporting ordinary citizens.

清崎對他長期以來的預測加倍強調，將即將到來的崩盤歸因於 2008 年金融危機期間所做的決定。他認為，包括前聯準會主席本·伯南克在內的領導人將銀行救助置於支持普通公民之上。

Looking ahead to 2025, he predicted that expensive assets like houses, gold, silver, and Bitcoin will soon be on sale. He also noted that the world was on the brink of war, which, in his view, was exacerbating the situation.

展望 2025 年，他預測房屋、黃金、白銀和比特幣等昂貴資產很快就會出售。他還指出，世界正處於戰爭邊緣，他認為這正在加劇局勢。

“Please be smart. Many expensive assets will go on sale. I'll be buying more real assets with fake US dollars,” Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter.

“請聰明點。許多昂貴的資產將被出售。我將用假美元購買更多真實資產，」清崎在推特上寫道。

Meanwhile, over the past week, Bitcoin's price dropped from a peak of $102,000 to as low as $92,000. At press time, BTC was trading at $94,932 after recovering slightly.

與此同時，過去一周，比特幣的價格從 102,000 美元的峰值跌至 92,000 美元的低點。截至發稿，BTC小幅回升後交易價格為94,932美元。

Shiba Inu, the second largest meme coin, announced the launch of a new token in its ecosystem on January 2. The team stated that TREAT will be launching this month.

第二大迷因幣 Shiba Inu 於 1 月 2 日宣佈在其生態系統中推出新代幣。

TREAT is designed for governance and rewards within the broader ecosystem as its developers aim to transform Shiba Inu from a meme coin into an inventive blockchain network.

TREAT 專為更廣泛的生態系統內的治理和獎勵而設計，因為其開發人員的目標是將柴犬從迷因硬幣轉變為創造性的區塊鏈網路。

However, TREAT will not be available to the US audience. The announcement included a disclaimer stating that the new meme coin is not intended for the US without providing details. This exclusion could be related to potential regulatory or licensing challenges with US exchanges.

然而，TREAT 將不會向美國觀眾開放。該公告包括一份免責聲明，指出新的模因硬幣不適用於美國，但未提供詳細資訊。這種排除可能與美國交易所的潛在監管或授權挑戰有關。

Shiba Inu prices have been experiencing a downtrend over the past week. The launch of the TREAT token is anticipated to boost SHIB prices.

過去一周，柴犬價格一直呈下降趨勢。 TREAT 代幣的推出預計將推高 SHIB 價格。

At least 13 US states, out of the total 50, are working on creating Bitcoin reserves, according to Dennis Porter. Porter is the CEO and co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund (SAC).

丹尼斯波特 (Dennis Porter) 表示，美國 50 個州中至少有 13 個州正在致力於建立比特幣儲備。波特是中本聰行動基金（SAC）的執行長兼聯合創始人。

“I can confirm that at least 13 states are working on ‘Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’ legislation. January is going to be a record-breaking month for Bitcoin policy,” Porter tweeted on January 3.

「我可以確認至少有 13 個州正在製定『戰略比特幣儲備』立法。 1 月將是比特幣政策破紀錄的一個月，」波特於 1 月 3 日發推文。

Porter also added that a ‘tidal wave of Bitcoin policy’ is coming in 2025.

波特還補充說，「比特幣政策浪潮」將於 2025 年到來。

As Bitcoin becomes a strong contender to traditional assets like gold, there is rising global debate around BTC’s role as a national reserve asset. It was President-elect Donald Trump who initiated conversations around government Bitcoin reserves.

隨著比特幣成為黃金等傳統資產的有力競爭者，全球圍繞比特幣作為國家儲備資產的角色的爭論日益激烈。當選總統唐納德·川普發起了有關政府比特幣儲備的對話。

Several US lawmakers have already endorsed state Bitcoin reserves. Lawmakers from Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and many others have pushed for BTC reserve legislation.

幾位美國立法者已經認可國家比特幣儲備。來自德克薩斯州、俄亥俄州、賓夕法尼亞州和許多其他州的立法者一直在推動比特幣儲備立法。

Coinbase has disclosed that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has instructed banks to pause Bitcoin services until new guidelines are established, sparking concerns about the future of cryptocurrency services offered through traditional banking channels.

Coinbase 透露，聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）已指示銀行暫停比特幣服務，直到新的指導方針制定為止，這引發了人們對透過傳統銀行管道提供的加密貨幣服務的未來的擔憂。

Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, revealed that the FDIC has sent additional letters urging banks to scale back their crypto-related operations. According to Grewal, these letters, which address everything from Bitcoin transactions to more advanced crypto services, are part of a wider effort to curb the growth of the crypto industry.

Coinbase 首席法務官 Paul Grewal 透露，FDIC 已發出更多信件，敦促銀行縮減與加密貨幣相關的業務。 Grewal 表示，這些信件涉及從比特幣交易到更先進的加密服務的所有內容，是遏制加密產業成長的更廣泛努力的一部分。

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, also emphasized that these FDIC directives seem designed to deter banks from engaging in any crypto-related business.

Ripple 的首席法務官 Stuart Alderoty 也強調，這些 FDIC 指令似乎旨在阻止銀行從事任何與加密貨幣相關的業務。

“Note that FDIC magically found TWO more pause letters in this search after saying before that it had complied with an earlier Court order. It’

「請注意，FDIC 在此次搜索中神奇地發現了另外兩封暫停信，此前他們曾表示已遵守了早些時候的法院命令。它'