加密货币市场接近牛市周期峰值，市场分析师建议谨慎

据 CryptoQuant 称，加密货币市场正显示出进入当前牛市周期后期的迹象。

Yerevan (CoinChapter.com) — The cryptocurrency market is entering the later stages of its current bull cycle, according to CryptoQuant. Analysts are advised to be cautious as key indicators suggest a potential cyclical peak by early 2025.

埃里温 (CoinChapter.com)——据 CryptoQuant 称，加密货币市场正在进入当前牛市周期的后期阶段。建议分析师保持谨慎，因为关键指标表明 2025 年初可能出现周期性峰值。

Bull Market Timing: Peak Expected by Q1 or Q2 2025

牛市时机：预计 2025 年第一季度或第二季度达到峰值

The bull market, which began in Jan. 2023, is expected to hit its peak between the first and second quarters of 2025, according to Crypto Dan, a contributor at CryptoQuant. The analysis highlights increased investment activity from both new and existing participants, suggesting the market is nearing the end of its cycle.

CryptoQuant 的撰稿人 Crypto Dan 表示，始于 2023 年 1 月的牛市预计将在 2025 年第一季度和第二季度之间达到顶峰。该分析强调了新参与者和现有参与者的投资活动增加，表明市场已接近周期结束。

“With a substantial influx of new investments as well as additional funds from existing investors, it is reasonable to expect that the market is now in the latter stages of this cycle,”

“随着新投资的大量涌入以及现有投资者的额外资金，可以合理地预期市场目前正处于本周期的后期阶段。”

the post noted on Jan. 6.

该帖子于 1 月 6 日指出。

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Metrics Show Market Trends

CryptoQuant：比特币指标显示市场趋势

CryptoQuant data shows a spike in short-term Bitcoin holding patterns. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) traded for less than one month rose to 36%, echoing patterns observed in previous bull market peaks.

CryptoQuant 数据显示短期比特币持有模式激增。 2024 年第四季度，交易时间不足一个月的比特币 (BTC) 比例升至 36%，与之前牛市高峰时观察到的模式相呼应。

The report indicates this ratio could continue rising, potentially doubling or quadrupling, before the market corrects during the transition to a bear cycle. CryptoQuant stresses the importance of risk management in such an environment.

该报告指出，在市场向熊市周期过渡期间进行调整之前，这一比率可能会继续上升，可能会翻一番或四倍。 CryptoQuant 强调在这种环境下风险管理的重要性。

“Expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open,”

“对比特币和山寨币大幅上涨的预期仍应保持开放。”

the post added.

该帖子补充道。

“Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised.”

“尽管如此，从保守的角度来看，并考虑到风险管理，建议谨慎行事。”

Diverging Views on Market Trajectory

对市场轨迹的不同看法

While CryptoQuant signals caution, other analysts have offered more optimistic forecasts. VanEck projects Bitcoin reaching $180,000 and Ethereum surpassing $6,000 by the end of 2025. Betting on a medium-term peak in Q1 2025, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, also anticipates new all-time highs later in the year.

尽管 CryptoQuant 发出了谨慎的信号，但其他分析师却给出了更为乐观的预测。 VanEck 预计到 2025 年底，比特币将达到 180,000 美元，以太坊将超过 6,000 美元。VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 押注于 2025 年第一季度将达到中期峰值，并预计今年晚些时候将创下历史新高。

Betting platforms Polymarket and Kalshi also predict new record highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 202025. They further expect regulatory developments, including approvals for new crypto ETFs and a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States.

博彩平台 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 还预测比特币和以太坊将在 202025 年创下新高。他们进一步预计监管方面的发展，包括美国批准新的加密 ETF 和战略比特币储备。