周一，加密货币市场继续崩溃，因为特朗普总统的关税遭到迫切要求。

周一，加密货币市场继续崩溃，因为特朗普总统的关税遭到迫切要求。

The crypto market continued to decline on Monday, as a hoped-for reprieve from President Trump’s tariffs failed to materialize. While the stock market has recovered some of its decline, crypto continues to be in the red across the board.

周一，加密货币市场继续下降，因为特朗普总统的关税未能实现。尽管股票市场恢复了一些下降，但加密货币仍在整个红色中。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 4.4% in the past 24 hours as of 1:15 p.m. ET, and is down 7.6% from Friday’s close. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has fallen 9.8% in the past day and 15% since Friday, and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) is down 8.4% and 14.5%, respectively, in that time.

截至美国东部时间下午1:15，比特币（Crypto：BTC）在过去24小时内下降了4.4％，比周五结束时下降了7.6％。以太坊（Crypto：ETH）在过去的一天中下降了9.8％，自星期五以来的15％下降了，而Dogecoin（加密：Doge）分别下降了8.4％和14.5％。

Tariffs and the risk to trade

关税和交易风险

Cryptocurrencies may be sold as an asset class that runs counter to traditional markets, but that’s not really the case. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies trade correlated to growth stocks, climbing when the market is putting on higher-risk trades in high-growth companies. But when the market drops, the opposite happens: Growth stocks plummet, and crypto often goes with it.

加密货币可以作为与传统市场相反的资产类别出售，但事实并非如此。比特币和其他加密货币贸易与增长股票相关，当市场在高增长公司的高风险交易中攀升。但是，当市场下降时，情况恰恰相反：增长库存局面，加密货币经常随之而来。

What’s happening today is a continued sell-off because of the tariffs President Trump announced last week. The market seems to be realizing that tariffs are here to stay, and if threats of higher tariffs on China are true, the trade war may escalate from here.

今天发生的事情是由于特朗普上周宣布的关税总统宣布，因此继续抛售。市场似乎意识到关税将留在这里，如果中国对更高关税的威胁是真的，贸易战可能会从这里升级。

Cryptocurrencies and an uncertain economy

加密货币和不确定的经济

While the trade war doesn’t directly impact cryptocurrencies, there’s a big indirect impact.

尽管贸易战并没有直接影响加密货币，但间接影响很大。

Most cryptocurrencies aren’t “productive assets,” meaning they don’t generate earnings for owners. Instead, they are a digital asset, which has increased in value over the past decade as investors poured money into the industry. Buying pressure has pushed values higher.

大多数加密货币不是“生产资产”，这意味着它们不会为所有者带来收益。取而代之的是，它们是一种数字资产，在过去的十年中，随着投资者将资金投入行业，它的价值已提高。购买压力提高了价值。

But a trade war and ensuing recession could cause an outflow of money as traders realize losses and long-term investors capitulate or need capital for more everyday uses.

但是，随着贸易商意识到损失，长期投资者屈服或需要资本以增加日常用途，贸易战和随之而来的经济衰退可能会导致资金流出。

We haven’t seen how investors will treat digital assets during a normal recession because most of these assets were created after the Great Recession. Crypto was arguably one of the biggest beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic response because stimulus checks and increased trading during that time pushed risk asset values higher.

我们还没有看到投资者在正常经济衰退期间如何处理数字资产，因为大多数资产都是在大衰退之后创建的。可以说，加密货币是COVID-19大流行反应的最大受益者之一，因为刺激检查和交易增加在此期间使风险资产价值提高。

The future of crypto

加密的未来

While the price of crypto assets will continue to be volatile, the direction will likely depend on what happens with the U.S. economy. Economists are increasing their probability of a recession in 2025, which could push markets even lower, including crypto.

尽管加密资产的价格将继续易变，但方向可能取决于美国经济的情况。经济学家在2025年增加了衰退的可能性，这可能会推动包括加密在内的市场。

Inflation may also push higher, but crypto hasn’t proven to be a good hedge against inflation in the past. During 2022, when interest rates rose to fight inflation, the value of cryptocurrencies fell. If inflation rises this year because of tariffs, don’t assume crypto will be a safe haven.

通货膨胀也可能会提高，但加密货币过去并没有证明是对通货膨胀的良好对冲。在2022年，当利率上升到通货膨胀时，加密货币的价值下降。如果今年由于关税而增加通货膨胀，请不要以为加密货币将是一个避风港。

I think the lesson of the last five years is that cryptocurrencies will struggle if the economy is weak and interest rates are rising. And it looks like both may happen simultaneously this year, driven by tariffs.

我认为过去五年的教训是，如果经济疲软并且利率上升，加密货币将挣扎。而且看来两者都可能在今年同时发生，这是由关税驱动的。

I’m not buying crypto on the dip today and would be skeptical of its recovery this year. Unless the trade war is called off, which doesn’t seem likely, this decline could last for a while.

我今天不是在DIP上购买加密货币，对它今年的恢复持怀疑态度。除非取消贸易战，这似乎不可能持续一段时间。