週一，加密貨幣市場繼續崩潰，因為特朗普總統的關稅遭到迫切要求。

週一，加密貨幣市場繼續崩潰，因為特朗普總統的關稅遭到迫切要求。

The crypto market continued to decline on Monday, as a hoped-for reprieve from President Trump’s tariffs failed to materialize. While the stock market has recovered some of its decline, crypto continues to be in the red across the board.

週一，加密貨幣市場繼續下降，因為特朗普總統的關稅未能實現。儘管股票市場恢復了一些下降，但加密貨幣仍在整個紅色中。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is down 4.4% in the past 24 hours as of 1:15 p.m. ET, and is down 7.6% from Friday’s close. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has fallen 9.8% in the past day and 15% since Friday, and Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) is down 8.4% and 14.5%, respectively, in that time.

截至美國東部時間下午1:15，比特幣（Crypto：BTC）在過去24小時內下降了4.4％，比周五結束時下降了7.6％。以太坊（Crypto：ETH）在過去的一天中下降了9.8％，自星期五以來的15％下降了，而Dogecoin（加密：Doge）分別下降了8.4％和14.5％。

Tariffs and the risk to trade

關稅和交易風險

Cryptocurrencies may be sold as an asset class that runs counter to traditional markets, but that’s not really the case. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies trade correlated to growth stocks, climbing when the market is putting on higher-risk trades in high-growth companies. But when the market drops, the opposite happens: Growth stocks plummet, and crypto often goes with it.

加密貨幣可以作為與傳統市場相反的資產類別出售，但事實並非如此。比特幣和其他加密貨幣貿易與增長股票相關，當市場在高增長公司的高風險交易中攀升。但是，當市場下降時，情況恰恰相反：增長庫存局面，加密貨幣經常隨之而來。

What’s happening today is a continued sell-off because of the tariffs President Trump announced last week. The market seems to be realizing that tariffs are here to stay, and if threats of higher tariffs on China are true, the trade war may escalate from here.

今天發生的事情是由於特朗普上周宣布的關稅總統宣布，因此繼續拋售。市場似乎意識到關稅將留在這裡，如果中國對更高關稅的威脅是真的，貿易戰可能會從這裡升級。

Cryptocurrencies and an uncertain economy

加密貨幣和不確定的經濟

While the trade war doesn’t directly impact cryptocurrencies, there’s a big indirect impact.

儘管貿易戰並沒有直接影響加密貨幣，但間接影響很大。

Most cryptocurrencies aren’t “productive assets,” meaning they don’t generate earnings for owners. Instead, they are a digital asset, which has increased in value over the past decade as investors poured money into the industry. Buying pressure has pushed values higher.

大多數加密貨幣不是“生產資產”，這意味著它們不會為所有者帶來收益。取而代之的是，它們是一種數字資產，在過去的十年中，隨著投資者將資金投入行業，它的價值已提高。購買壓力提高了價值。

But a trade war and ensuing recession could cause an outflow of money as traders realize losses and long-term investors capitulate or need capital for more everyday uses.

但是，隨著貿易商意識到損失，長期投資者屈服或需要資本以增加日常用途，貿易戰和隨之而來的經濟衰退可能會導致資金流出。

We haven’t seen how investors will treat digital assets during a normal recession because most of these assets were created after the Great Recession. Crypto was arguably one of the biggest beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic response because stimulus checks and increased trading during that time pushed risk asset values higher.

我們還沒有看到投資者在正常經濟衰退期間如何處理數字資產，因為大多數資產都是在大衰退之後創建的。可以說，加密貨幣是COVID-19大流行反應的最大受益者之一，因為刺激檢查和交易增加在此期間使風險資產價值提高。

The future of crypto

加密的未來

While the price of crypto assets will continue to be volatile, the direction will likely depend on what happens with the U.S. economy. Economists are increasing their probability of a recession in 2025, which could push markets even lower, including crypto.

儘管加密資產的價格將繼續易變，但方向可能取決於美國經濟的情況。經濟學家在2025年增加了衰退的可能性，這可能會推動包括加密在內的市場。

Inflation may also push higher, but crypto hasn’t proven to be a good hedge against inflation in the past. During 2022, when interest rates rose to fight inflation, the value of cryptocurrencies fell. If inflation rises this year because of tariffs, don’t assume crypto will be a safe haven.

通貨膨脹也可能會提高，但加密貨幣過去並沒有證明是對通貨膨脹的良好對沖。在2022年，當利率上升到通貨膨脹時，加密貨幣的價值下降。如果今年由於關稅而增加通貨膨脹，請不要以為加密貨幣將是一個避風港。

I think the lesson of the last five years is that cryptocurrencies will struggle if the economy is weak and interest rates are rising. And it looks like both may happen simultaneously this year, driven by tariffs.

我認為過去五年的教訓是，如果經濟疲軟並且利率上升，加密貨幣將掙扎。而且看來兩者都可能在今年同時發生，這是由關稅驅動的。

I’m not buying crypto on the dip today and would be skeptical of its recovery this year. Unless the trade war is called off, which doesn’t seem likely, this decline could last for a while.

我今天不是在DIP上購買加密貨幣，對它今年的恢復持懷疑態度。除非取消貿易戰，這似乎不可能持續一段時間。