加密货币 FOMO 周期即将结束

在美联储降息后的过去 24 小时内，我们在整个秋天和初冬看到的加密货币势头遇到了很大的障碍。

The crypto momentum we've seen all fall and early winter hit a big snag over the past 24 hours after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. That may sound like a good thing on the surface, but as part of the cuts the Fed also said it expects inflation and unemployment to rise more than expected in 2025. Add it up and investors are selling risk assets today.

在美联储降息后的过去 24 小时内，我们在整个秋天和初冬看到的加密货币势头遇到了很大的障碍。表面上这听起来像是一件好事，但作为降息的一部分，美联储还表示，预计 2025 年通胀和失业率将超过预期。加起来，投资者今天正在抛售风险资产。

Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell 6.2% in the past 24 hours as of 3 p.m. ET and dropped below the $100,000 level. Ethereum ( ETH ) fell 9.7% in that time to $3,350 and Dogecoin ( DOGE ) fell 16.8% to $0.3032.

截至美国东部时间下午 3 点，比特币 (BTC) 在过去 24 小时内下跌 6.2%，跌破 10 万美元水平。以太坊 (ETH) 在那段时间下跌 9.7% 至 3,350 美元，狗狗币 (DOGE) 下跌 16.8% 至 0.3032 美元。

Crypto prices today at 3 p.m. ETCoinDesk Price% Change (24 hours)Bitcoin (BTC)CoinDesk $99,023.83-3.49%Ethereum (ETH)CoinDesk $3,349.85-8.06%Dogecoin (DOGE)CoinDesk $0.3032-13.30%More Items

今天下午 3 点的加密货币价格 ETCoinDesk 价格百分比变化（24 小时）比特币 (BTC)CoinDesk $99,023.83-3.49%以太坊 (ETH)CoinDesk $3,349.85-8.06%狗狗币 (DOGE)CoinDesk $0.3032-13.30%更多商品

The Fed's impact on crypto As much as cryptocurrencies have been marketed as a way out from under the traditional financial ecosystem, the crypto market trades a lot like traditional risk assets like growth stocks. In this case, when interest rates rise, growth stocks fall and crypto moves down along with them.

美联储对加密货币的影响 尽管加密货币被宣传为摆脱传统金融生态系统的一种出路，但加密货币市场的交易很像成长股等传统风险资产。在这种情况下，当利率上升时，成长型股票下跌，加密货币也随之下跌。

I mentioned that the Fed cut rates yesterday, but the market took the inflation talk as a risk for longer-term bonds, and those yields rose after the announcement. According to Bloomberg, the 10-year government bond rose 6 basis points in the last day and is now up 64 basis points over the past year.

我昨天提到美联储降息，但市场将通胀言论视为长期债券的风险，宣布降息后收益率上升。据彭博社报道，10年期政府债券最后一天上涨了6个基点，目前较过去一年上涨了64个基点。

As we saw in 2022, higher rates means lower valuations for cryptocurrencies.

正如我们在 2022 年看到的那样，较高的利率意味着加密货币的估值较低。

A FOMO cycle nearing its end? This current run for crypto started after the election when there was an increase in speculation that President-elect Donald Trump would open up a bull run for the crypto market. And that may happen, but the gains seen didn't line up with any fundamental changes in the industry.

FOMO 周期即将结束？当前的加密货币热潮是在大选后开始的，当时人们越来越多地猜测当选总统唐纳德·特朗普将开启加密货币市场的牛市。这可能会发生，但所看到的收益与行业的任何根本性变化并不相符。

Fear of missing out, or FOMO, drove valuations higher and that FOMO may now be coming to an end.

对错过机会（FOMO）的恐惧推高了估值，而这种 FOMO 现在可能即将结束。

There was also speculation that Bitcoin, in particular, would be bought by the U.S. government as a reserve or could be used as a reserve by other governments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was clear the Federal Reserve is not allowed to buy Bitcoin, which could have caused some disappointment.

还有人猜测，特别是比特币将被美国政府购买作为储备，或者可以被其他政府用作储备。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明确表示美联储不允许购买比特币，这可能会引起一些失望。

This looks similar to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" moment in investing, where there's disappointment when results or news comes out, even something as obvious as the Fed not buying Bitcoin.

这看起来类似于投资中的“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的时刻，当结果或消息公布时，甚至像美联储不购买比特币这样明显的事情都会令人失望。

Questions heading into 2025 The gains of the last year were largely based on speculation and momentum from items like the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the election. But in 2025 there may be fewer of these tailwinds and pricing is driven by the number of new buyers coming into the market, like Bitcoin.

进入 2025 年的问题去年的收益主要基于交易所交易基金 (ETF) 批准和选举等项目的投机和动力。但到 2025 年，这些有利因素可能会减少，定价将由进入市场的新买家数量驱动，比如比特币。

It's also worth noting that MicroStrategy ( MSTR) has also fallen and its arbitrage strategy makes less sense without a big premium. It's also the biggest individual buyer of Bitcoin in the market, so its multibillion-dollar purchases have been a driver of the price of Bitcoin. And as Bitcoin goes so does crypto, which means everything is lower today.

还值得注意的是，MicroStrategy (MSTR) 也下跌了，如果没有大的溢价，其套利策略就没有意义。它也是市场上最大的比特币个人买家，因此其数十亿美元的购买量一直是比特币价格的推动力。随着比特币的发展，加密货币也在发展，这意味着今天的一切都在走低。