加密貨幣 FOMO 週期即將結束

在聯準會降息後的過去 24 小時內，我們在整個秋天和初冬看到的加密貨幣勢頭遇到了很大的障礙。

The crypto momentum we've seen all fall and early winter hit a big snag over the past 24 hours after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. That may sound like a good thing on the surface, but as part of the cuts the Fed also said it expects inflation and unemployment to rise more than expected in 2025. Add it up and investors are selling risk assets today.

在聯準會降息後的過去 24 小時內，我們在整個秋天和初冬看到的加密貨幣勢頭遇到了很大的障礙。表面上這聽起來像是一件好事，但作為降息的一部分，聯準會也表示，預計 2025 年通膨和失業率將超過預期。

Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell 6.2% in the past 24 hours as of 3 p.m. ET and dropped below the $100,000 level. Ethereum ( ETH ) fell 9.7% in that time to $3,350 and Dogecoin ( DOGE ) fell 16.8% to $0.3032.

截至美國東部時間下午 3 點，比特幣 (BTC) 在過去 24 小時內下跌 6.2%，跌破 10 萬美元水準。以太幣 (ETH) 在那段時間下跌 9.7% 至 3,350 美元，狗狗幣 (DOGE) 下跌 16.8% 至 0.3032 美元。

Crypto prices today at 3 p.m. ETCoinDesk Price% Change (24 hours)Bitcoin (BTC)CoinDesk $99,023.83-3.49%Ethereum (ETH)CoinDesk $3,349.85-8.06%Dogecoin (DOGE)CoinDesk $0.3032-13.30%More Items

今天下午 3 點的加密貨幣價格 ETCoinDesk 價格百分比變化（24 小時）比特幣 (BTC)CoinDesk $99,023.83-3.49%以太坊 (ETH)CoinDesk $3,349.85-8.06% 狗狗幣 (DOGE)CoinDesk $0.3032-13.3032-13.300% $0.3032-13.300% $0.3032-13.300% $0.3032-13.300% $0.3032-13.300% $0.3032-13.

The Fed's impact on crypto As much as cryptocurrencies have been marketed as a way out from under the traditional financial ecosystem, the crypto market trades a lot like traditional risk assets like growth stocks. In this case, when interest rates rise, growth stocks fall and crypto moves down along with them.

聯準會對加密貨幣的影響 儘管加密貨幣被宣傳為擺脫傳統金融生態系統的一種出路，但加密貨幣市場的交易很像成長股等傳統風險資產。在這種情況下，當利率上升時，成長型股票下跌，加密貨幣也隨之下跌。

I mentioned that the Fed cut rates yesterday, but the market took the inflation talk as a risk for longer-term bonds, and those yields rose after the announcement. According to Bloomberg, the 10-year government bond rose 6 basis points in the last day and is now up 64 basis points over the past year.

我昨天提到聯準會降息，但市場將通膨言論視為長期債券的風險，宣布降息後殖利率上升。根據彭博社報道，10年期公債最後一天上漲了6個基點，目前較過去一年上漲了64個基點。

As we saw in 2022, higher rates means lower valuations for cryptocurrencies.

正如我們在 2022 年看到的那樣，較高的利率意味著加密貨幣的估值較低。

A FOMO cycle nearing its end? This current run for crypto started after the election when there was an increase in speculation that President-elect Donald Trump would open up a bull run for the crypto market. And that may happen, but the gains seen didn't line up with any fundamental changes in the industry.

FOMO 週期即將結束？目前的加密貨幣熱潮是在大選後開始的，當時人們越來越多地猜測當選總統唐納德·川普將開啟加密貨幣市場的牛市。這可能會發生，但所看到的收益與行業的任何根本性變化並不相符。

Fear of missing out, or FOMO, drove valuations higher and that FOMO may now be coming to an end.

對錯過機會（FOMO）的恐懼推高了估值，而這種 FOMO 現在可能即將結束。

There was also speculation that Bitcoin, in particular, would be bought by the U.S. government as a reserve or could be used as a reserve by other governments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was clear the Federal Reserve is not allowed to buy Bitcoin, which could have caused some disappointment.

也有人猜測，特別是比特幣將被美國政府購買作為儲備，或者可以被其他政府用作儲備。聯準會主席鮑威爾明確表示聯準會不允許購買比特幣，這可能會引起一些失望。

This looks similar to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" moment in investing, where there's disappointment when results or news comes out, even something as obvious as the Fed not buying Bitcoin.

這看起來類似於投資中的「買入謠言，賣出新聞」的時刻，當結果或消息公佈時，甚至像聯準會不購買比特幣這樣明顯的事情都會令人失望。

Questions heading into 2025 The gains of the last year were largely based on speculation and momentum from items like the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the election. But in 2025 there may be fewer of these tailwinds and pricing is driven by the number of new buyers coming into the market, like Bitcoin.

進入 2025 年的問題去年的收益主要基於交易所交易基金 (ETF) 批准和選舉等項目的投機和動力。但到 2025 年，這些有利因素可能會減少，定價將由進入市場的新買家數量驅動，例如比特幣。

It's also worth noting that MicroStrategy ( MSTR) has also fallen and its arbitrage strategy makes less sense without a big premium. It's also the biggest individual buyer of Bitcoin in the market, so its multibillion-dollar purchases have been a driver of the price of Bitcoin. And as Bitcoin goes so does crypto, which means everything is lower today.

另外值得注意的是，MicroStrategy (MSTR) 也下跌了，如果沒有大的溢價，其套利策略就沒有意義。它也是市場上最大的比特幣個人買家，因此其數十億美元的購買量一直是比特幣價格的推動力。隨著比特幣的發展，加密貨幣也在發展，這意味著今天的一切都在走低。