加密货币为什么会下跌，2025 年会反弹吗？

过去几周，加密货币价格大幅下跌，所有加密货币的总市值从本月早些时候的近 4 万亿美元降至 3.46 万亿美元。那么，为什么加密货币会下跌？它会在 2025 年反弹吗？

Cryptocurrency prices have crashed sharply in the past few days, with Bitcoin dropping by over 13% from its highest level this month. So, what’s happening, and will crypto bounce back in 2025?

过去几天，加密货币价格大幅下跌，比特币较本月最高水平下跌超过 13%。那么，到底发生了什么，加密货币会在 2025 年反弹吗？

Here’s a closer look at crypto prices.

这是对加密货币价格的仔细观察。

Most coins and tokens have plunged hard in the past few days. For example, Bitcoin price has dropped by over 13% from its highest level this month, meaning it is in a technical correction. Ethereum has tumbled by almost 17% from the year-to-date high, while Solana is in a bear market after falling by 26% from its all-time high.

大多数硬币和代币在过去几天都大幅下跌。例如，比特币价格较本月最高水平下跌了13%以上，这意味着它正处于技术调整中。以太坊已从今年迄今的高点下跌近 17%，而 Solana 在从历史高点下跌 26% 后正处于熊市。

Meme coins, which were the biggest stories of the year, have also fallen sharply. For example, most Solana memecoins have crashed, bringing the market cap to $19 billion, down from the year-to-date high of over $25 billion.

作为今年最大新闻的 Meme 币也大幅下跌。例如，大多数 Solana memecoin 都已经崩溃，市值从今年迄今超过 250 亿美元的高点降至 190 亿美元。

But what’s pushing crypto prices lower?

但是什么推动加密货币价格走低呢？

This performance is mostly because of the ongoing profit-taking among investors after what has been a successful year for digital coins. In most cases, cryptocurrencies and stocks often drop in the final days of the year after having a good year. Indeed, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have also retreated recently.

这种表现主要是因为在经历了数字货币成功的一年之后，投资者持续获利了结。在大多数情况下，加密货币和股票在经历了美好的一年后通常会在一年的最后几天下跌。事实上，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数最近也有所回落。

Second, crypto is crashing because of the Federal Reserve and the growing fear that the bond vigilantes are coming. The Federal Reserve has hinted that it will deliver two cuts next year, down from four. As a result, US bond yields have continued rising, with the 30-year moving to 4.65%.

其次，由于美联储以及人们越来越担心债券治安维护者的到来，加密货币正在崩溃。美联储暗示明年将实施两次降息，低于四次。受此影响，美国国债收益率持续上升，30年期收益率升至4.65%。

There is a risk that the bond market will sink stocks and cryptocurrencies in 2025, especially if Trump succeeds in some of his policies. He has pledged to cut taxes, deport millions, and impose huge tariffs, all of which are highly inflationary.

2025 年债券市场存在股市和加密货币下跌的风险，特别是如果特朗普的一些政策取得成功的话。他承诺减税、驱逐数百万人并征收巨额关税，所有这些都会导致严重通货膨胀。

I’ve argued that most asset markets appear overvalued, bordering on frothy. Stocks, corporate bonds, single family housing, crypto and gold, quickly come to mind. But what could be the catalyst for them to selloff? How about a meaningful correction in the Treasury bond market.

我认为大多数资产市场似乎都被高估，接近泡沫。人们很快就会想到股票、公司债券、单户住宅、加密货币和黄金。但什么可能是他们抛售的催化剂呢？国债市场是否会出现有意义的调整？

Third, cryptocurrencies are down because of the concept of mean reversion, where assets often drop to move back to their historical averages. In line with this, the crash of most altcoins is that they have moved to the markdown phase of the Wyckoff Method. This old strategy identifies stages in which assets go through, including accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.

第三，加密货币下跌是由于均值回归的概念，即资产经常下跌以回到历史平均水平。与此相一致的是，大多数山寨币的崩溃是它们已经进入了威科夫方法的降价阶段。这个旧策略确定了资产经历的阶段，包括积累、加价、分配和减价。

Will Bitcoin and other altcoins recover in Q1?

比特币和其他山寨币会在第一季度复苏吗？

Bitcoin and other altcoins may recover in Q1 for three key reasons. First, as shown below, Q1 is usually the second-best quarter for Bitcoin after Q4. Its average return is 56%, second only to Q4’s 85%. Therefore, there is a likelihood that these coins will rebound in the next few weeks to resume the gains made in 2024.

比特币和其他山寨币可能会在第一季度复苏，原因有三个。首先，如下所示，第一季度通常是比特币继第四季度之后第二好的季度。其平均回报率为56%，仅次于第四季度的85%。因此，这些代币有可能在未来几周内反弹，恢复 2024 年的涨幅。

Second, the crypto industry could benefit from a $16 billion tailwind since the FTX Estate will start its payments in January. Most of these funds are now in the form of stablecoins like USDT and USDC. Many recipients will likely buy Bitcoin and other altcoins.

其次，自 FTX Estate 将于 1 月份开始付款以来，加密行业可能会受益于 160 亿美元的顺风车。这些资金现在大部分都是以 USDT 和 USDC 等稳定币的形式存在。许多接收者可能会购买比特币和其他山寨币。

Further, Donald Trump will be sworn in January. This will be followed by the approval of Paul Atkins as the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Such a move will lead to more enthusiasm about cryptocurrencies, which will push them higher.

此外，唐纳德·特朗普将于一月宣誓就职。随后将批准保罗·阿特金斯担任美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席。此举将引发人们对加密货币的更多热情，从而推高它们。