加密貨幣為什麼會下跌，2025 年會反彈嗎？

過去幾週，加密貨幣價格大幅下跌，所有加密貨幣的總市值從本月稍早的近 4 兆美元降至 3.46 兆美元。那麼，為什麼加密貨幣會下跌？

Cryptocurrency prices have crashed sharply in the past few days, with Bitcoin dropping by over 13% from its highest level this month. So, what’s happening, and will crypto bounce back in 2025?

過去幾天，加密貨幣價格大幅下跌，比特幣較本月最高水準下跌超過 13%。那麼，到底發生了什麼，加密貨幣會在 2025 年反彈嗎？

Here’s a closer look at crypto prices.

這是對加密貨幣價格的仔細觀察。

Most coins and tokens have plunged hard in the past few days. For example, Bitcoin price has dropped by over 13% from its highest level this month, meaning it is in a technical correction. Ethereum has tumbled by almost 17% from the year-to-date high, while Solana is in a bear market after falling by 26% from its all-time high.

大多數硬幣和代幣在過去幾天都大幅下跌。例如，比特幣價格較本月最高水準下跌了13%以上，這意味著它正處於技術調整中。以太坊已從今年迄今的高點下跌近 17%，而 Solana 在從歷史高點下跌 26% 後正處於熊市。

Meme coins, which were the biggest stories of the year, have also fallen sharply. For example, most Solana memecoins have crashed, bringing the market cap to $19 billion, down from the year-to-date high of over $25 billion.

作為今年最大新聞的 Meme 幣也大幅下跌。例如，大多數 Solana memecoin 都已經崩潰，市值從今年迄今超過 250 億美元的高點降至 190 億美元。

But what’s pushing crypto prices lower?

但是是什麼推動加密貨幣價格走低呢？

This performance is mostly because of the ongoing profit-taking among investors after what has been a successful year for digital coins. In most cases, cryptocurrencies and stocks often drop in the final days of the year after having a good year. Indeed, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have also retreated recently.

這種表現主要是因為在經歷了數位貨幣成功的一年之後，投資者持續獲利了結。在大多數情況下，加密貨幣和股票在經歷了美好的一年後通常會在一年的最後幾天下跌。事實上，標準普爾500指數和那斯達克100指數最近也有所回落。

Second, crypto is crashing because of the Federal Reserve and the growing fear that the bond vigilantes are coming. The Federal Reserve has hinted that it will deliver two cuts next year, down from four. As a result, US bond yields have continued rising, with the 30-year moving to 4.65%.

其次，由於聯準會以及人們越來越擔心債券治安維護者的到來，加密貨幣正在崩潰。聯準會暗示明年將實施兩次降息，低於四次。受此影響，美債殖利率持續走高，30年期殖利率升至4.65%。

There is a risk that the bond market will sink stocks and cryptocurrencies in 2025, especially if Trump succeeds in some of his policies. He has pledged to cut taxes, deport millions, and impose huge tariffs, all of which are highly inflationary.

2025 年債券市場存在股市和加密貨幣下跌的風險，特別是如果川普的一些政策成功的話。他承諾減稅、驅逐數百萬人並徵收巨額關稅，所有這些都會導致嚴重通貨膨脹。

I’ve argued that most asset markets appear overvalued, bordering on frothy. Stocks, corporate bonds, single family housing, crypto and gold, quickly come to mind. But what could be the catalyst for them to selloff? How about a meaningful correction in the Treasury bond market.

我認為大多數資產市場似乎都被高估，接近泡沫。人們很快就會想到股票、公司債券、單戶住宅、加密貨幣和黃金。但什麼可能是他們拋售的催化劑呢？國債市場是否會出現有意義的調整？

Third, cryptocurrencies are down because of the concept of mean reversion, where assets often drop to move back to their historical averages. In line with this, the crash of most altcoins is that they have moved to the markdown phase of the Wyckoff Method. This old strategy identifies stages in which assets go through, including accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.

第三，加密貨幣下跌是由於平均值回歸的概念，即資產經常下跌以回到歷史平均值。與此一致的是，大多數山寨幣的崩潰是它們已經進入了威科夫方法的降價階段。這個舊策略確定了資產經歷的階段，包括累積、加價、分配和減價。

Will Bitcoin and other altcoins recover in Q1?

比特幣和其他山寨幣會在第一季復甦嗎？

Bitcoin and other altcoins may recover in Q1 for three key reasons. First, as shown below, Q1 is usually the second-best quarter for Bitcoin after Q4. Its average return is 56%, second only to Q4’s 85%. Therefore, there is a likelihood that these coins will rebound in the next few weeks to resume the gains made in 2024.

比特幣和其他山寨幣可能會在第一季復甦，原因有三。首先，如下所示，第一季通常是比特幣繼第四季之後第二好的季度。其平均回報率為56%，僅次於第四季的85%。因此，這些代幣有可能在未來幾週內反彈，恢復 2024 年的漲幅。

Second, the crypto industry could benefit from a $16 billion tailwind since the FTX Estate will start its payments in January. Most of these funds are now in the form of stablecoins like USDT and USDC. Many recipients will likely buy Bitcoin and other altcoins.

其次，自 FTX Estate 將於 1 月開始付款以來，加密產業可能會受益於 160 億美元的順風車。這些資金現在大部分都是以 USDT 和 USDC 等穩定幣的形式存在。許多接收者可能會購買比特幣和其他山寨幣。

Further, Donald Trump will be sworn in January. This will be followed by the approval of Paul Atkins as the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Such a move will lead to more enthusiasm about cryptocurrencies, which will push them higher.

此外，唐納德·特朗普將於一月宣誓就職。隨後將批准保羅·阿特金斯擔任美國證券交易委員會（SEC）主席。此舉將引發人們對加密貨幣的更多熱情，從而推高它們。