加密货币飙升倒计时：比特币今天减半

今天的比特币减半，将比特币矿工的区块补贴减少了一半，对于加密货币投资者来说是一个重大事件。从历史上看，减半导致比特币价格上涨。专家们对减半的结果有不同的预测，但大多数人预计比特币价格会上涨。 Stock to Flow 模型的创建者 Plan B 预计比特币将在 2024 年达到 10 万美元以上，2025 年达到 30 万美元以上。 SkyBridge Capital 创始人安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇 (Anthony Scaramucci) 预测，每枚比特币的潜在涨幅将超过 200%，达到 20 万美元。然而，摩根大通等一些分析师则更为悲观，预计在乐观情绪消退后，价格可能会跌至 42,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Halving: A Countdown to Soaring Crypto Prices

比特币减半：加密货币价格飙升倒计时

New York, April 19, 2024 - Amidst the ongoing market volatility, savvy investors have turned their attention to the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, scheduled to occur today, April 19th. This pivotal moment, occurring every four years, holds immense significance for the world's leading cryptocurrency and is expected to trigger a bullish trend.

纽约，2024 年 4 月 19 日 - 在持续的市场波动中，精明的投资者将注意力转向了备受期待的比特币减半事件，该事件定于今天（4 月 19 日）发生。这个每四年发生一次的关键时刻对于世界领先的加密货币具有巨大意义，预计将引发看涨趋势。

Deciphering the Halving

破译减半

The halving refers to a systemic reduction in the block subsidy awarded to Bitcoin miners. This reward, which currently stands at 6.25 BTC, will be halved to 2,125 BTC, translating into a 50% reduction in the supply of newly minted Bitcoins.

减半是指系统性减少给予比特币矿工的区块补贴。该奖励目前为 6.25 BTC，将减半至 2,125 BTC，这意味着新铸造的比特币供应量将减少 50%。

Historical Significance

历史意义

Past halving events have consistently led to significant upward price movements for Bitcoin. The inherent mechanism behind this phenomenon lies in the supply and demand dynamics. The reduction in supply, coupled with the ever-increasing demand for Bitcoin, drives prices higher.

过去的减半事件一直导致比特币价格大幅上涨。这一现象背后的内在机制在于供需动态。供应减少，加上对比特币的需求不断增加，推动价格上涨。

Market Precursors

市场先驱

As the halving approaches, several market indicators suggest a positive outlook for Bitcoin. The hash rate, a measure of computing power dedicated to Bitcoin mining, has surged to record levels, demonstrating the heightened interest from miners. Additionally, the Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin indicates a neutral sentiment, suggesting that investors are not overly bullish but also not overly bearish.

随着减半的临近，一些市场指标表明比特币前景乐观。哈希率（衡量比特币挖矿专用计算能力的指标）已飙升至创纪录水平，表明矿工的兴趣日益浓厚。此外，比特币的恐惧和贪婪指数显示出中性情绪，表明投资者没有过度看涨，也没有过度看跌。

Expert Predictions

专家预测

Renowned crypto analysts have weighed in with varying perspectives on the impact of the halving, but most agree that Bitcoin prices will likely rise. Plan B, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, anticipates a substantial price increase, predicting that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024 and $300,000 in 2025.

著名的加密货币分析师对减半的影响发表了不同的观点，但大多数人都认为比特币价格可能会上涨。 Stock-to-Flow（S2F）模型的创建者 Plan B 预计比特币价格将大幅上涨，并预测比特币将在 2024 年突破 10 万美元，2025 年突破 30 万美元。

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, shares a similar sentiment, expecting Bitcoin to rise by more than 200% within the next year, potentially reaching $200,000 per coin. However, he cautions that a short-term dip of up to 15% may occur before Bitcoin embarks on its post-halving rally.

SkyBridge Capital 创始人 Anthony Scaramucci 也有类似的看法，预计比特币明年将上涨 200% 以上，每枚币可能达到 20 万美元。不过，他警告说，在比特币开始减半后的反弹之前，短期内可能会出现最多 15% 的下跌。

Some analysts, such as JPMorgan, have expressed a more cautious outlook. They anticipate Bitcoin prices to decline following the halving, attributing this to the potential dissipation of hype surrounding the event. JPMorgan believes Bitcoin could drop as low as $42,000 in the aftermath of the halving.

摩根大通等一些分析师表达了更为谨慎的前景。他们预计比特币价格将在减半后下跌，并将其归因于围绕该事件的炒作可能消散。摩根大通认为，减半后比特币价格可能会跌至 42,000 美元。

Post-Halving Surge

减半后的激增

It's important to note that the post-halving surge may not materialize immediately. Historically, it has taken up to 18 months for the full effects of the halving to be realized. Rikke Staer, CEO of Coinify, explains, "The price reaction is usually not immediate. There is strong growth after the halving [after] six and 18 months, and larger price movements become statistically less likely as the market size increases."

值得注意的是，减半后的飙升可能不会立即实现。从历史上看，减半的效果需要长达 18 个月的时间才能完全显现出来。 Coinify 首席执行官 Rikke Staer 解释说：“价格反应通常不会立即发生。减半后的 6 个月和 18 个月后会出现强劲增长，而且随着市场规模的扩大，价格大幅波动的可能性在统计上变得越来越小。”

Conclusion

结论

As investors eagerly await the Bitcoin halving, the market is poised for volatility. While predictions vary, the historical track record and expert analyses suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned for an upward trajectory following this significant event. With its reduced supply and unwavering demand, Bitcoin is poised to continue its reign as the leading cryptocurrency, captivating the attention of investors worldwide.

随着投资者热切等待比特币减半，市场即将出现波动。尽管预测各不相同，但历史记录和专家分析表明，在这一重大事件之后，比特币处于有利的上升轨道。随着供应量的减少和需求的稳定，比特币有望继续其作为领先加密货币的统治地位，吸引全球投资者的注意力。