短短三个月将比特币从$ 109K推到$ 82K的情况发生了什么？是通货膨胀数据，还是幕后发生的事情？

就在三个月前，加密货币市场的气氛是电动的。比特币（BTC）飙升了109,000美元，以太坊（ETH）保持强大

Just three months ago, Bitcoin (BTC) was setting a new all-time high at $109,000, Ethereum (ETH) was holding strong above key levels, and a fresh wave of optimism swept through the crypto market. Pro-crypto Donald Trump had returned to the White House, and the macroeconomic backdrop was setting the stage for another year of bullish gains.

就在三个月前，比特币（BTC）将新的历史最高点设置为109,000美元，以太坊（ETH）保持着强大的关键水平，而新鲜的乐观浪潮席卷了加密货币市场。亲克莱普托·唐纳德·特朗普（Crypto Donald Trump）返回白宫，宏观经济背景为看涨一年的收益奠定了基础。

But as Q1 2025 comes to a close, that optimism has quietly faded into uncertainty.

但是，随着第1季度2025年接近，这种乐观情绪已悄悄地消失了不确定性。

Bitcoin is currently trading around $82,000, marking a nearly 13% drop for the quarter and putting it on track for its weakest Q1 performance in seven years. To put that into perspective, Bitcoin jumped 72% in Q1 2023 and climbed another 69% in Q1 2024. The last time it faltered this badly in the first quarter was in 2018, when it plunged nearly 50% during the fallout of the ICO boom.

比特币目前的交易额约为82,000美元，标志着该季度下降了近13％，并以七年来最弱的第一季度表现达到了正轨。从角度来看，比特币在2023年第1季度上升了72％，在2024年第1季度又攀升了69％。最后一次在第一季度糟糕的是在2018年，当时它在ICO繁荣时期暴跌了近50％。

This year, however, the majority of Bitcoin’s gains were wiped out in March alone, largely driven by a combination of inflation worries, fragile investor confidence, and intensifying geopolitical risks.

然而，今年，仅比特币的大部分收益就在3月份就被消灭了，这在很大程度上是由通货膨胀的忧虑，脆弱的投资者信心和加剧地缘政治风险加剧的组合所驱动的。

According to Chainalysis, most of the recent sales have come from short-term holders — those who have bought Bitcoin within the past five months and are now reacting to price swings. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) — investors holding for more than 155 days — appear to be the main source of the current profit-taking activity.

根据链分析，最近的大多数销售额来自短期持有人 - 那些在过去五个月内购买了比特币的人，现在对价格波动有反应。长期持有人（LTHS） - 持有超过155天的投资者似乎是当前获利活动的主要来源。

According to Glassnode, LTHs remain in profit overall, while SHTFs are currently at a loss on average.

根据GlassNode的说法，LTHS总体上仍然是利润，而SHTF目前平均亏损。

According to Benzinga, U.S. core inflation rose slightly more than expected in February, remaining sticky and keeping the Federal Reserve on track to pause rate hikes at its March meeting.

据本辛加（Benzinga）称，美国核心通货膨胀率的增长略高于2月份的预期，保持粘性，并在3月的会议上保持暂停速度的暂停速度。

The year-over-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index came in at 2.8%, edging past the Dow Jones survey of economists for a 2.7% gain.

个人消费支出（PCE）指数的同比增长为2.8％，超过了道琼斯对经济学家的调查，收益为2.7％。

The Core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy components, rose by 0.2% in February. Economists had anticipated a flat reading.

2月，不包括波动性食品和能源组成部分的核心PCE价格指数上涨了0.2％。经济学家预计会坦白地阅读。

The gains in both headline and core PCE were in line with the prior month's increases.

标题和核心PCE的收益均与上个月的增加一致。

While the inflation readings may appear small, they are closely watched by the Fed as it strives to cool inflation to its 2% target.

尽管通货膨胀读数可能很小，但美联储致力于将通货膨胀冷却到2％的目标时，他们受到了密切关注的关注。

The sticky inflation numbers suggest that the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates this year, a move that could put pressure on stock markets already grappling with rising trade tensions.

粘性通货膨胀数字表明，美联储今年可能会削减利率，这一举动可能会给已经遇到的贸易紧张局势加剧的股票市场施加压力。

Earlier this week, the Trump administration unveiled fresh 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, sparking immediate backlash from both nations.

本周早些时候，特朗普政府宣布了对加拿大和墨西哥商品的新鲜25％的关税，引发了两国的立即强烈反对。

Canada is preparing to hit back with CAD 60 billion in retaliatory duties on U.S. goods, aiming to match the total value of U.S. exports to Canada in 2022.

加拿大正准备以60亿加元对美国商品的报复性关税进行反击，旨在与2022年美国向加拿大出口的总价值相匹配。

The move follows President Donald Trump’s announcement of 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, driven by allegations of Beijing’s role in fentanyl trafficking.

此举是在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统宣布对所有中国进口的20％关税的宣布，这是由北京在芬太尼贩运中的作用的指控所推动的。

The administration has also listed around 15 countries — dubbed the “Dirty 15” — that could face reciprocal tariffs based on imbalances and friction in trade and investment.

政府还列出了约15个国家（称为“肮脏15”），这可能会因贸易和投资的失衡和摩擦而面临互惠关税。

According to the Office of the Trade Representative (USTR), the U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada was $52.3 billion in 2022, while the trade deficit with Mexico reached $12.4 billion.

根据贸易代表办公室（USTR）的说法，美国与加拿大的商品贸易赤字在2022年为523亿加元，而与墨西哥的贸易赤字达到了124亿美元。

Together, the three North American nations are planning tariffs on billions of dollars in goods from the other country.

北美三个国家共同计划对另一个国家的数十亿美元商品关税。

The U.S. is preparing to impose 20% tariffs on about $70 billion worth of Chinese goods in response to what the administration claims is China’s role in the production and trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S.

美国正准备对价值约700亿美元的中国商品征收20％的关税，以应对政府声称中国在芬太尼在美国的生产和贩运中的作用

In response, China is considering tariffs on American agricultural exports, reported Bloomberg, citing three people familiar with the matter.

作为回应，彭博社报道，中国正在考虑对美国农业出口的关税，并援引三名熟悉此事的人。

The move is part of China’s effort to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs.

此举是中国对美国关税进行报复的努力的一部分。

Earlier this week, Trump said the U.S. is preparing to place tariffs of up to 20% on all Chinese goods sold in the U.S. in response to the fentanyl crisis.

特朗普本周早些时候表示，美国正准备将最高20％的关税贴在美国出售的所有中国商品，以应对芬太尼危机。

The president added that the tariffs could be implemented as early as next week.

总统补充说，最早可以在下周实施关税。

The administration is also planning to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Canada and Mexico, in an effort to protect American jobs and industries.

政府还计划对包括加拿大和墨西哥在内的几个国家进口钢和铝征收关税，以保护美国就业和行业。

According to a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, tariffs have a limited impact on the trade deficit.

根据彼得森国际经济学研究所的一份报告，关税对贸易赤字的影响有限。

The report found that the U.S. goods trade deficit fell by an average of 0.1 percentage point of GDP during periods of major tariff increases since 1870.

该报告发现，自1870年以来，美国商品贸易赤字平均下降了GDP的0.1个百分点。

However, tariffs can have a significant impact on prices

但是，关税可能会对价格产生重大影响