短短三個月將比特幣從$ 109K推到$ 82K的情況發生了什麼？是通貨膨脹數據，還是幕後發生的事情？

就在三個月前，加密貨幣市場的氣氛是電動的。比特幣（BTC）飆升了109,000美元，以太坊（ETH）保持強大

Just three months ago, Bitcoin (BTC) was setting a new all-time high at $109,000, Ethereum (ETH) was holding strong above key levels, and a fresh wave of optimism swept through the crypto market. Pro-crypto Donald Trump had returned to the White House, and the macroeconomic backdrop was setting the stage for another year of bullish gains.

就在三個月前，比特幣（BTC）將新的歷史最高點設置為109,000美元，以太坊（ETH）保持著強大的關鍵水平，而新鮮的樂觀浪潮席捲了加密貨幣市場。親克萊普托·唐納德·特朗普（Crypto Donald Trump）返回白宮，宏觀經濟背景為看漲一年的收益奠定了基礎。

But as Q1 2025 comes to a close, that optimism has quietly faded into uncertainty.

但是，隨著第1季度2025年接近，這種樂觀情緒已悄悄地消失了不確定性。

Bitcoin is currently trading around $82,000, marking a nearly 13% drop for the quarter and putting it on track for its weakest Q1 performance in seven years. To put that into perspective, Bitcoin jumped 72% in Q1 2023 and climbed another 69% in Q1 2024. The last time it faltered this badly in the first quarter was in 2018, when it plunged nearly 50% during the fallout of the ICO boom.

比特幣目前的交易額約為82,000美元，標誌著該季度下降了近13％，並以七年來最弱的第一季度表現達到了正軌。從角度來看，比特幣在2023年第1季度上升了72％，在2024年第1季度又攀升了69％。最後一次在第一季度糟糕的是在2018年，當時它在ICO繁榮時期暴跌了近50％。

This year, however, the majority of Bitcoin’s gains were wiped out in March alone, largely driven by a combination of inflation worries, fragile investor confidence, and intensifying geopolitical risks.

然而，今年，僅比特幣的大部分收益就在3月份就被消滅了，這在很大程度上是由通貨膨脹的憂慮，脆弱的投資者信心和加劇地緣政治風險加劇的組合所驅動的。

According to Chainalysis, most of the recent sales have come from short-term holders — those who have bought Bitcoin within the past five months and are now reacting to price swings. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) — investors holding for more than 155 days — appear to be the main source of the current profit-taking activity.

根據鏈分析，最近的大多數銷售額來自短期持有人 - 那些在過去五個月內購買了比特幣的人，現在對價格波動有反應。長期持有人（LTHS） - 持有超過155天的投資者似乎是當前獲利活動的主要來源。

According to Glassnode, LTHs remain in profit overall, while SHTFs are currently at a loss on average.

根據GlassNode的說法，LTHS總體上仍然是利潤，而SHTF目前平均虧損。

According to Benzinga, U.S. core inflation rose slightly more than expected in February, remaining sticky and keeping the Federal Reserve on track to pause rate hikes at its March meeting.

據本辛加（Benzinga）稱，美國核心通貨膨脹率的增長略高於2月份的預期，保持粘性，並在3月的會議上保持暫停速度的暫停速度。

The year-over-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index came in at 2.8%, edging past the Dow Jones survey of economists for a 2.7% gain.

個人消費支出（PCE）指數的同比增長為2.8％，超過了道瓊斯對經濟學家的調查，收益為2.7％。

The Core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy components, rose by 0.2% in February. Economists had anticipated a flat reading.

2月，不包括波動性食品和能源組成部分的核心PCE價格指數上漲了0.2％。經濟學家預計會坦白地閱讀。

The gains in both headline and core PCE were in line with the prior month's increases.

標題和核心PCE的收益均與上個月的增加一致。

While the inflation readings may appear small, they are closely watched by the Fed as it strives to cool inflation to its 2% target.

儘管通貨膨脹讀數可能很小，但美聯儲致力於將通貨膨脹冷卻到2％的目標時，他們受到了密切關注的關注。

The sticky inflation numbers suggest that the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates this year, a move that could put pressure on stock markets already grappling with rising trade tensions.

粘性通貨膨脹數字表明，美聯儲今年可能會削減利率，這一舉動可能會給已經遇到的貿易緊張局勢加劇的股票市場施加壓力。

Earlier this week, the Trump administration unveiled fresh 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, sparking immediate backlash from both nations.

本週早些時候，特朗普政府宣布了對加拿大和墨西哥商品的新鮮25％的關稅，引發了兩國的立即強烈反對。

Canada is preparing to hit back with CAD 60 billion in retaliatory duties on U.S. goods, aiming to match the total value of U.S. exports to Canada in 2022.

加拿大正準備以60億加元對美國商品的報復性關稅進行反擊，旨在與2022年美國向加拿大出口的總價值相匹配。

The move follows President Donald Trump’s announcement of 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, driven by allegations of Beijing’s role in fentanyl trafficking.

此舉是在唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統宣布對所有中國進口的20％關稅的宣布，這是由北京在芬太尼販運中的作用的指控所推動的。

The administration has also listed around 15 countries — dubbed the “Dirty 15” — that could face reciprocal tariffs based on imbalances and friction in trade and investment.

政府還列出了約15個國家（稱為“骯髒15”），這可能會因貿易和投資的失衡和摩擦而面臨互惠關稅。

According to the Office of the Trade Representative (USTR), the U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada was $52.3 billion in 2022, while the trade deficit with Mexico reached $12.4 billion.

根據貿易代表辦公室（USTR）的說法，美國與加拿大的商品貿易赤字在2022年為523億加元，而與墨西哥的貿易赤字達到了124億美元。

Together, the three North American nations are planning tariffs on billions of dollars in goods from the other country.

北美三個國家共同計劃對另一個國家的數十億美元商品關稅。

The U.S. is preparing to impose 20% tariffs on about $70 billion worth of Chinese goods in response to what the administration claims is China’s role in the production and trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S.

美國正準備對價值約700億美元的中國商品徵收20％的關稅，以應對政府聲稱中國在芬太尼在美國的生產和販運中的作用

In response, China is considering tariffs on American agricultural exports, reported Bloomberg, citing three people familiar with the matter.

作為回應，彭博社報導，中國正在考慮對美國農業出口的關稅，並援引三名熟悉此事的人。

The move is part of China’s effort to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs.

此舉是中國對美國關稅進行報復的努力的一部分。

Earlier this week, Trump said the U.S. is preparing to place tariffs of up to 20% on all Chinese goods sold in the U.S. in response to the fentanyl crisis.

特朗普本週早些時候表示，美國正準備將最高20％的關稅貼在美國出售的所有中國商品，以應對芬太尼危機。

The president added that the tariffs could be implemented as early as next week.

總統補充說，最早可以在下週實施關稅。

The administration is also planning to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Canada and Mexico, in an effort to protect American jobs and industries.

政府還計劃對包括加拿大和墨西哥在內的幾個國家進口鋼和鋁徵收關稅，以保護美國就業和行業。

According to a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, tariffs have a limited impact on the trade deficit.

根據彼得森國際經濟學研究所的一份報告，關稅對貿易赤字的影響有限。

The report found that the U.S. goods trade deficit fell by an average of 0.1 percentage point of GDP during periods of major tariff increases since 1870.

該報告發現，自1870年以來，美國商品貿易赤字平均下降了GDP的0.1個百分點。

However, tariffs can have a significant impact on prices

但是，關稅可能會對價格產生重大影響