Cathie Wood：破坏性创新是对价值陷阱的最佳对冲

方舟投资创始人兼首席执行官讨论了AI，EVS和Crypto中的最新发展，并解释了为什么她认为自己的旗舰基金现在是一个深厚的价值投资组合。

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, joined Morningstar to discuss her latest report, Big Ideas for 2025, and share her views on artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and ARK's strategies in Europe.

ARK Invest的创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood加入了Morningstar，讨论了她的最新报告《 2025年的大创意》，并分享了她对人工智能，电动汽车，加密货币和方舟在欧洲的策略的看法。

Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, joined Morningstar in a wide-ranging interview, covering her latest report Big Ideas for 2025, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, cryptocurrencies, and ARK's strategies in Europe.

ARK Invest的创始人兼首席执行官Cathie Wood加入Morningstar进行了广泛的采访，涵盖了她的最新报告，有关2025年，人工智能，电动汽车，加密货币和ARK在欧洲的策略的最新报告。

Cathie's latest report outlines her strongest investment convictions, with artificial intelligence being the biggest one. A couple of weeks ago, Chinese company DeepSeek launched its much cheaper AI, sending shock waves through the market.

凯西（Cathie）的最新报告概述了她最强烈的投资信念，人工智能是最大的投资信念。几周前，中国公司DeepSeek推出了更便宜的AI，在市场上引起了冲击波。

Cathie and Morningstar's Valerio Baselli discussed the lesson learned from this and whether it could be a game changer for the sector.

Cathie和Morningstar的Valerio Baselli讨论了从中学到的教训，以及它是否可以改变该行业的游戏规则。

Cathie said that they looked at DeepSeek's model and learned that it is moving down the cost curve associated with this new technology at a rapid rate, but not much different from the rate at which OpenAI and Anthropic are also riding down the cost curve.

凯西说，他们研究了DeepSeek的模型，并得知它正在以迅速的速度向下移动与这项新技术相关的成本曲线，但与OpenAI和Anthropic也降低成本曲线的速度并没有太大不同。

She added that inference models, the cost to develop them, are dropping 85% to 95% per year.

她补充说，推理模型（开发它们的成本）每年下降85％至95％。

Cathie said that the big question with DeepSeek is whether it really cost $6 million to develop that model. She said that is up for grabs, compared to ten times that or more from OpenAI and Anthropic.

凯茜说，DeepSeek的最大问题是开发该模型是否真的花费了600万美元。她说，这是要抓住的，而Openai和Anthropic则是十倍或更多。

She added that there is a big question mark there, because we don’t know how much pre-training there was done before developing that model on a high-end workstation.

她补充说，那里有一个很大的问号，因为我们不知道在高端工作站开发该模型之前已经进行了多少预培训。

Cathie said that the drama was really around, wait a minute, is it going to cost much less because AI model development is moving to the edge to high end workstations instead of cloud providers? That’s where the question marks are. And we don’t have all the answers. But in terms of the cost declines that we’re seeing both on training and inference, DeepSeek is just following that pattern.

凯西说，这部戏确实存在，等等一分钟，因为AI模型开发正在转向高端工作站而不是云提供商，这会降低成本要少得多吗？那就是问号所在。而且我们没有所有答案。但是，就我们在培训和推理上看到的成本下降而言，DeepSeek只是遵循这种模式。

Baselli then asked Cathie about the consequences on her investment strategy and where she sees value right now across the artificial intelligence industry.

然后，巴塞利（Baselli）询问了凯西（Cathie）对她的投资策略的后果，以及她现在在整个人工智能行业看到的价值。

Cathie said that it all started with hardware, Nvidia (NVDA) and TSM (TSM), and they’re still involved with those in a number of our funds.

凯茜说，这一切始于硬件，NVIDIA（NVDA）和TSM（TSM），他们仍然参与我们许多资金的人。

She added that they have been evolving their portfolios in terms of weightings, towards software and what we call embodied AI.

她补充说，他们一直在将投资组合从权重，软件和我们所谓的体现AI中发展。

Cathie said that software is more platform-as-a-service, like Palantir (PLTR), and embodied AI would be Tesla (TSLA), moving towards autonomous mobility, which could not happen without artificial intelligence.

Cathie说，软件是诸如Palantir（PLTR）之类的平台服务，而体现的AI将是Tesla（TSLA），它朝着自动移动性迈进，如果没有人工智能，这种情况就不会发生。

She added that also, importantly, they’ve been focused on the multi-omics or genomic space, where the convergence between sequencing technologies, artificial intelligence and Crispr gene editing, that convergence is beginning to cure diseases.

她还补充说，重要的是，它们一直集中在多词或基因组空间上，在这些空间中，测序技术，人工智能和CRISPR基因编辑之间的融合开始融合开始治愈疾病。

Cathie said that while the most, while the biggest opportunity in the next 5 to 10 years from a revenue generation point of view might be autonomous mobility, the most profound applications, we think, could be in the health care space as we move towards curing disease and increasing human longevity.

凯西说，尽管从收入生成的角度来看，在未来5到10年中，最大的机会可能是自主流动性，但随着我们迈向治疗，我们认为最深刻的应用可能是在医疗保健领域中疾病和人类寿命的增加。

Speaking about that, when Baselli and Cathie spoke almost a year ago, she was very bullish on electric vehicles and especially robo-taxis.

谈到这一点，当Baselli和Cathie大约一年前讲话时，她非常看好电动汽车，尤其是机器人税。

Since then, several car makers have been rethinking their commitments to EVs, as sales have in general failed to meet expectations, and there has also been a shift in policies concerning electrification of cars, for example in the US.

从那时起，几家汽车制造商一直在重新考虑他们对电动汽车的承诺，因为总体上未能满足期望，并且在美国，关于汽车电气化的政策也发生了变化。

Baselli asked Cathie if her view on that has changed and, if so, how.

巴塞利（Baselli）问凯蒂（Cathie）她对此的看法是否发生了变化，如果是这样。

Cathie said that electric vehicles are facing macro headwinds, just like internal combustion engine vehicles.

凯茜说，电动汽车就像内燃机车辆一样，面对巨大的逆风。

She added that if you look globally last year, I believe electric vehicle sales were up 12% while internal combustion engine related sales were down by 1%.

她补充说，如果您去年在全球范围内，我相信电动汽车销售额增长了12％，而内燃机相关的销售额下降了1％。

Cathie said that if you look at the gas-powered vehicle sector, as recently as 2019, gas-powered vehicle sales globally accounted for 92% of all sales. Today, they account for only 72% of sales.

凯西说，如果您查看燃气动力的车辆行业，直到2019年，全球燃气动力的车辆销售额将占所有销售额的92％。今天，他们仅占销售额的72％。

She added that they do think the shift towards electric, and a bit of a jog towards hybrid, certainly here in the US, but I think that was true around the world, might be distorting the pure battery electric vehicle space.

她补充说，他们确实认为向电动的转变，并且在美国当然可以慢跑，但我认为世界各地确实如此，可能正在扭曲纯电池电动汽车空间。

Cathie said that they do think as costs associated with electric vehicles continue to fall, and we think they will, Tesla is rumored to debut a car for somewhere in the $25,000 range this year. And robo-taxis, we think, could drop to a cost of

凯西说，他们确实认为，随着电动汽车的成本继续下降，我们认为他们会认为，特斯拉被谣传在今年的25,000美元范围内首次亮相一辆汽车。我们认为，机器人税率可能会降至