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两周前美联储宣布降息后,卡尔达诺股价大幅上涨 26%,提振了整个加密货币市场的乐观情绪。
Cardano (ADA) price is showing signs of weakness despite a recent rally, with key resistance levels remaining unbreached and on-chain data revealing a decline in demand. As a result, ADA faces a risk of a 30% drop to its yearly low, technical analysis suggests.
尽管近期有所上涨,但卡尔达诺(ADA)价格仍显示疲软迹象,关键阻力位仍未突破,链上数据显示需求下降。因此,技术分析表明,ADA 面临下跌 30% 至年度低点的风险。
Rising selling pressure and diminishing demand, as indicated by Santiment’s on-chain data, presents a significant risk for ADA. The daily active-address (DAA) divergence for ADA shows a deep negative reading of -43.3% at the time of writing. This metric tracks the correlation between an asset’s price movements and changes in its daily active addresses. A negative DAA divergence indicates that the asset’s price is not keeping up with the activity on its network, suggesting a lack of organic demand.
Santiment 的链上数据表明,销售压力上升和需求下降给 ADA 带来了重大风险。在撰写本文时,ADA 的每日活跃地址 (DAA) 背离显示为 -43.3% 的深度负读数。该指标跟踪资产价格变动与其每日活跃地址变化之间的相关性。 DAA 负背离表明该资产的价格跟不上其网络上的活动,表明缺乏有机需求。
Cardano Daily Active Addresses Divergence Chart. Source: Santiment
卡尔达诺每日活跃地址差异图。资料来源:Santiment
This divergence has been sustained since September 7, highlighting a troubling trend for ADA. The lack of demand suggests that much of ADA’s rally this month, following the interest rate cuts, is more driven by broader market sentiment than by any specific demand for ADA itself.
这种分歧自 9 月 7 日以来一直持续,凸显了 ADA 令人不安的趋势。需求的缺乏表明,在降息之后,本月 ADA 的上涨很大程度上是由更广泛的市场情绪推动的,而不是对 ADA 本身的任何具体需求。
As traders begin to lock in profits and the selling pressure increases, ADA’s price could drop sharply without sustained buying pressure. According to technical analysis, if ADA fails to break above its current resistance level of around $0.41, analysts expect a deeper correction, potentially pushing the price back to the yearly low of $0.27.
随着交易者开始锁定利润,抛售压力增大,如果没有持续的买压,ADA 的价格可能会大幅下跌。根据技术分析,如果 ADA 未能突破当前 0.41 美元左右的阻力位,分析师预计将出现更大幅度的回调,可能将价格推回到 0.27 美元的年度低点。
ADA Daily Price Chart
ADA 每日价格图表
ADA trades at $0.38, having faced a 10% rejection from its daily 200 exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.41. This level has become a crucial resistance area, as the price formed a new local high around this zone.
ADA 的交易价格为 0.38 美元,其每日 200 指数移动平均线 (EMA) 的 0.41 美元被拒绝了 10%。该水平已成为关键阻力区域,因为价格在该区域附近形成了新的局部高点。
To the upside, ADA must push above the 200 EMA at $0.41 and the next key resistance at $0.45 to confirm a bullish trend for the coming weeks. Successfully breaking past these levels would signal renewed strength, giving the bulls control and potentially leading to higher prices.
向上看,ADA 必须突破 200 EMA 0.41 美元和下一个关键阻力位 0.45 美元,才能确认未来几周的看涨趋势。成功突破这些水平将标志着新的强势,让多头获得控制权,并可能导致价格上涨。
On the other hand, if ADA fails to push above these critical levels, the altcoin could face further downside pressure. A failure to reclaim $0.41 and surpass $0.45 would likely result in increased selling, triggering a potential 30% drop. In such a scenario, ADA would be at risk of revisiting its yearly low of around $0.27.
另一方面,如果 ADA 未能突破这些关键水平,山寨币可能面临进一步的下行压力。如果未能收回 0.41 美元并超过 0.45 美元,可能会导致抛售增加,从而引发潜在的 30% 下跌。在这种情况下,ADA 将面临重新触及 0.27 美元左右的年度低点的风险。
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