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加密货币新闻
比特币 (BTC) 价格较 9 月 27 日触及的局部高点 66,508 美元低 7%,但一些分析师乐观地认为,随着 BTC 为 2024 年最后一个季度的大幅上涨做好准备,此次调整可能只是关键指标的重置
2024/10/02 05:01
BTC 已接近历史高点,但估值指标均已从 3 月份的极端超买下降至 4 年 Z 值的 17-75% 左右。
Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading 7% below the local high of $66,508 reached on Sept. 27, but some analysts are optimistic that this correction could just be a reset of key metrics as BTC prepares for massive gains in the last quarter of 2024.
比特币 (BTC) 价格较 9 月 27 日触及的当地高点 66,508 美元低 7%,但一些分析师乐观地认为,这次调整可能只是关键指标的重置,因为 BTC 正在为 2024 年最后一个季度的大幅上涨做好准备。
BTC
比特币
$61,504.57
$61,504.57 美元
“Bitcoin is near all-time highs, yet the valuation metrics have all declined from extreme overbought in March to around 17-75% on a 4-year Z-score,” Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said in an Oct. 1 post on X.
Real Vision 首席加密分析师 Jamie Coutts 在一份报告中表示:“比特币已接近历史高点,但估值指标已从 3 月份的极端超买下降至 4 年 Z 值的 17-75% 左右。” 10 月 1 日在 X 上发布。
Coutts was referring to an onchain metric called the market value realized value (MVRV) Z-score, which shows the market value’s relative position to realized value, which was -116% on the three-month timeframe, -94% over a two-year period and -107% on the four-year timeframe. This suggests that Bitcoin is extremely undervalued on multiple timeframes.
Coutts 指的是一种称为市场价值实现价值 (MVRV) Z 分数的链上指标,它显示了市场价值与实现价值的相对位置,在三个月时间范围内为 -116%,在两个月时间范围内为 -94%。一年期间为-107%,四年期间为-107%。这表明比特币在多个时间范围内都被极度低估。
The analyst also explained that Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) is high, a key metric that investors use to assess market sentiment and anticipate future price movements. The Perpetual futures OI has stood 800% higher over the last four years.
这位分析师还解释说,比特币的未平仓合约(OI)很高,这是投资者用来评估市场情绪和预测未来价格走势的关键指标。永续期货 OI 在过去四年中上涨了 800%。
Bitcoin network fundamentals. Source: Jamie Coutts
比特币网络基础知识。资料来源:杰米·库茨
“Global liquidity is accelerating to the upside,” Coutts also noted, adding that the pullback witnessed over the last six months has “removed the excess bullishness” from the market, positioning and creating the reset required for a “major move higher.”
库茨还指出,“全球流动性正在加速上行”,并补充说,过去六个月出现的回调已经“消除了市场的过度看涨情绪”,为“大幅走高”所需的定位和重置做好了准备。
A report by independent analyst Lyn Alden reveals that Bitcoin price is historically correlated to global liquidity, with BTC value generally rising when liquidity expands and correcting when global liquidity shrinks.
独立分析师 Lyn Alden 的一份报告显示,比特币价格在历史上与全球流动性相关,当流动性扩大时,比特币的价值通常会上涨,而当全球流动性萎缩时,比特币的价值就会调整。
The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s price exhibited a correlation of 0.94 with global liquidity between May 2013 and July 2024, indicating a very strong positive relationship.
下图显示,2013年5月至2024年7月期间,比特币价格与全球流动性的相关性为0.94,表明存在非常强的正相关关系。
BTC price vs. global M2 money supply. Source: Lyn Alden
BTC 价格与全球 M2 货币供应量。资料来源:林恩·奥尔登
This suggests that an uptick in global liquidity could be a prerequisite for a similar surge in the price of Bitcoin.
这表明全球流动性的增加可能是比特币价格类似上涨的先决条件。
Related: 3 signs that Bitcoin’s Q3 close was bullish
相关:3个迹象表明比特币第三季度收盘看涨
How high can Bitcoin go in Q4?
比特币第四季度能涨到多高?
Additional data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin recorded the greenest-ever September in history, closing 7.29% higher on Sept. 30. This has led to speculations among traders and analysts regarding how Bitcoin might perform during the last quarter of 2024, which is both a Bitcoin halving year and a US election year.
CoinGlass 的额外数据显示,比特币在 9 月份录得有史以来最绿的表现,9 月 30 日收盘上涨 7.29%。这引发了交易员和分析师对比特币在 2024 年最后一个季度可能表现的猜测,这既是比特币减半年和美国大选年。
Bitcoin’s performance tends to be “significantly weaker” during US election years compared to non-election years, Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson said in his latest analysis on X.
比特币分析师蒂莫西·彼得森 (Timothy Peterson) 在对 X 的最新分析中表示,与非选举年相比,在美国大选年,比特币的表现往往“明显疲软”。
Peterson attributes this weakness to increased uncertainties surrounding election outcomes, which creates market volatility and drives more cautious behavior among investors. Bitcoin reacts sharply to this uncertainty, resulting in either muted or negative returns.
彼得森将这种疲软归因于选举结果的不确定性增加,这造成了市场波动并促使投资者采取更加谨慎的行为。比特币对这种不确定性反应强烈,导致回报率较低或为负。
Peterson explained that Bitcoin price could, however, record more gains in November and December as investors get a clearer picture of the effects of political outcomes.
彼得森解释说,随着投资者更清楚地了解政治结果的影响,比特币价格可能会在 11 月和 12 月录得更多涨幅。
Bitcoin’s performance in October. Source: Timothy Peterson
比特币十月份的表现。资料来源:蒂莫西·彼得森
Meanwhile, fellow analyst Archie, founder of BTC Archive, believes after recording a green September, Bitcoin could continue gaining momentum during the last quarter of 2024, setting a six-figure target for BTC by the end of the year.
与此同时,BTC Archive 创始人、分析师同事 Archie 认为,在经历了 9 月份的绿色增长之后,比特币可能会在 2024 年最后一个季度继续保持强劲势头,并在年底前设定 BTC 六位数的目标。
Bitcoin price targets for Q4/2024. Source: Archie
2024 年第四季度比特币价格目标。资料来源:阿奇
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险,读者在做出决定时应自行研究。
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