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加密貨幣新聞文章
比特幣(BTC) 價格較9 月27 日觸及的局部高點66,508 美元低7%,但一些分析師樂觀地認為,隨著BTC 為2024 年最後一個季度的大幅上漲做好準備,此次調整可能只是關鍵指標的重置
2024/10/02 05:01
BTC 已接近歷史高點,但估值指標均已從 3 月的極端超買下降至 4 年 Z 值的 17-75% 左右。
Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading 7% below the local high of $66,508 reached on Sept. 27, but some analysts are optimistic that this correction could just be a reset of key metrics as BTC prepares for massive gains in the last quarter of 2024.
比特幣(BTC) 價格較9 月27 日觸及的當地高點66,508 美元低7%,但一些分析師樂觀地認為,這次調整可能只是關鍵指標的重置,因為BTC 正在為2024 年最後一個季度的大幅上漲做好準備。
BTC
比特幣
$61,504.57
$61,504.57 美元
“Bitcoin is near all-time highs, yet the valuation metrics have all declined from extreme overbought in March to around 17-75% on a 4-year Z-score,” Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said in an Oct. 1 post on X.
Real Vision 首席加密分析師 Jamie Coutts 在一份報告中表示:“比特幣已接近歷史高點,但估值指標已從 3 月份的極端超買下降至 4 年 Z 值的 17-75% 左右。” 10 月1 日在X 上發布。
Coutts was referring to an onchain metric called the market value realized value (MVRV) Z-score, which shows the market value’s relative position to realized value, which was -116% on the three-month timeframe, -94% over a two-year period and -107% on the four-year timeframe. This suggests that Bitcoin is extremely undervalued on multiple timeframes.
Coutts 指的是一種稱為市場價值實現價值(MVRV) Z 分數的鏈上指標,它顯示了市場價值與實現價值的相對位置,在三個月時間範圍內為-116%,在兩個月時間範圍內為-94%。這表明比特幣在多個時間範圍內都被極度低估。
The analyst also explained that Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) is high, a key metric that investors use to assess market sentiment and anticipate future price movements. The Perpetual futures OI has stood 800% higher over the last four years.
這位分析師還解釋說,比特幣的未平倉合約(OI)很高,這是投資者用來評估市場情緒和預測未來價格走勢的關鍵指標。永續期貨 OI 在過去四年中上漲了 800%。
Bitcoin network fundamentals. Source: Jamie Coutts
比特幣網路基礎知識。資料來源:傑米·庫茨
“Global liquidity is accelerating to the upside,” Coutts also noted, adding that the pullback witnessed over the last six months has “removed the excess bullishness” from the market, positioning and creating the reset required for a “major move higher.”
庫茨還指出,“全球流動性正在加速上行”,並補充說,過去六個月出現的回調已經“消除了市場的過度看漲情緒”,為“大幅走高”所需的定位和重置做好了準備。
A report by independent analyst Lyn Alden reveals that Bitcoin price is historically correlated to global liquidity, with BTC value generally rising when liquidity expands and correcting when global liquidity shrinks.
獨立分析師Lyn Alden 的一份報告顯示,比特幣價格在歷史上與全球流動性相關,當流動性擴大時,比特幣的價值通常會上漲,而當全球流動性萎縮時,比特幣的價值就會調整。
The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s price exhibited a correlation of 0.94 with global liquidity between May 2013 and July 2024, indicating a very strong positive relationship.
下圖顯示,2013年5月至2024年7月期間,比特幣價格與全球流動性的相關性為0.94,顯示有非常強烈的正相關關係。
BTC price vs. global M2 money supply. Source: Lyn Alden
BTC 價格與全球 M2 貨幣供給。資料來源:林恩·奧爾登
This suggests that an uptick in global liquidity could be a prerequisite for a similar surge in the price of Bitcoin.
這表明全球流動性的增加可能是比特幣價格類似上漲的先決條件。
Related: 3 signs that Bitcoin’s Q3 close was bullish
相關:3個跡象顯示比特幣第三季收盤看漲
How high can Bitcoin go in Q4?
比特幣第四季能漲多高?
Additional data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin recorded the greenest-ever September in history, closing 7.29% higher on Sept. 30. This has led to speculations among traders and analysts regarding how Bitcoin might perform during the last quarter of 2024, which is both a Bitcoin halving year and a US election year.
CoinGlass 的額外數據顯示,比特幣在9 月錄得有史以來最綠的表現,9 月30 日收盤上漲7.29%。 ,這既是比特幣減半年和美國大選年。
Bitcoin’s performance tends to be “significantly weaker” during US election years compared to non-election years, Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson said in his latest analysis on X.
比特幣分析師 Timothy Peterson 在對 X 的最新分析中表示,與非選舉年相比,在美國大選年,比特幣的表現往往「明顯疲軟」。
Peterson attributes this weakness to increased uncertainties surrounding election outcomes, which creates market volatility and drives more cautious behavior among investors. Bitcoin reacts sharply to this uncertainty, resulting in either muted or negative returns.
彼得森將這種疲軟歸因於選舉結果的不確定性增加,這造成了市場波動並促使投資者採取更謹慎的行為。比特幣對這種不確定性反應強烈,導致回報率較低或為負。
Peterson explained that Bitcoin price could, however, record more gains in November and December as investors get a clearer picture of the effects of political outcomes.
彼得森解釋說,隨著投資者更清楚地了解政治結果的影響,比特幣價格可能會在 11 月和 12 月錄得更多漲幅。
Bitcoin’s performance in October. Source: Timothy Peterson
比特幣十月的表現。來源:蒂莫西·彼得森
Meanwhile, fellow analyst Archie, founder of BTC Archive, believes after recording a green September, Bitcoin could continue gaining momentum during the last quarter of 2024, setting a six-figure target for BTC by the end of the year.
同時,BTC Archive 創辦人、分析師同事Archie 認為,在經歷了9 月的綠色成長之後,比特幣可能會在2024 年最後一個季度繼續保持強勁勢頭,並在年底前設定BTC 六位數的目標。
Bitcoin price targets for Q4/2024. Source: Archie
2024 年第四季比特幣價格目標。資料來源:阿奇
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都涉及風險,讀者在做決定時應自行研究。
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