基于这种链趋势，现在为比特币打电话可能还为时过早

CryptoQuant的研究负责人揭示了为什么根据链数据的趋势，为比特币拨打底部可能还为时过早。

The Head of Research at CryptoQuant has revealed why it may be too early to call a bottom for Bitcoin, based on the trend in on-chain data.

CryptoQuant的研究负责人揭示了为什么根据链数据的趋势，为比特币拨打底部可能还为时过早。

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plunged Under Its 365-Day MA

比特币MVRV Z得分已在其365天的MA下跌落

比特币MVRV Z得分已在其365天的MA下跌落

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has talked about why Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may not have reached a bottom yet. “All valuation metrics are in correction territory,” the analyst begins. “It can take more time.”

在X上的一篇新帖子中，加密研究负责人Julio Moreno谈到了为什么比特币（Crypto：BTC）可能还没有达到底部。分析师开始说：“所有估值指标都处于纠正领域。” “这可能需要更多的时间。”

An indicator that Moreno has cited as an example of this trend is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This indicator essentially tells us about how the market cap of the asset compares against its realized cap.

莫雷诺（Moreno）作为这种趋势的一个例子的指标是实现价值（MVRV）z得分的市场价值。该指标实质上告诉我们资产的市值与已实现的上限的比较。

“Realized cap” is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the BTC supply by assuming that each token in circulation has its ‘true’ value equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

“已实现的上限”是一个链资本化模型，它通过假设每个循环中的每个令牌的'true'值等于最后一次在区块链上进行交易的``真实''值来计算BTC供应的总价值。

In other words, the realized cap sums up the cost basis of the cryptocurrency’s supply. As such, the model can be interpreted as a measure of the total amount of capital the investors as a whole have put into BTC.

换句话说，实现的上限总结了加密货币供应的成本基础。因此，该模型可以解释为投资者整体投入BTC的资本总量的衡量标准。

Since the MVRV Z-Score compares the market cap, which represents the value the investors are holding right now, against this initial investment, it tells us about the profit-loss status of the cryptocurrency’s user base.

由于MVRV Z得分比较了市场上限，该市场上限代表了投资者目前拥有的价值与这项初始投资的价值，因此它告诉我们加密货币用户群的利润损失状态。

The MVRV Z-Score is similar to the popular MVRV Ratio, but where it differs from the latter is that it also applies a standard deviation test to pull out the extremes from the data.

MVRV Z分数与流行的MVRV比率相似，但是与后者不同的地方，它也采用标准偏差测试来从数据中删除极端。

Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, as well as its 365-day moving average (MA), over the last few years:

现在，这是莫雷诺（Moreno）共享的图表，该图表显示了过去几年比特币MVRV Z得分的趋势以及其365天的移动平均水平（MA）：

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has recently seen a sharp decline. The reason for this plummet naturally lies in the crash that the asset’s price has just gone through, which has put many investors into a state of loss.

如上图所示，比特币MVRV Z分数最近急剧下降。这种坠落的原因自然在于资产价格刚刚经历的崩溃，这使许多投资者处于损失状态。

Despite the plummet, though, the indicator remains above the zero mark. Below this level, the overall market enters into a state of loss, so the boundary has historically proven to be an important one for the cryptocurrency.

尽管情况下降，但指示器仍保持在零标记之上。在此水平以下，整个市场进入损失状态，因此在历史上证明边界对加密货币是重要的。

Another important level that the indicator has lost, however, is the 365-day MA. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, past breakdowns of the line have generally led to notable periods of struggle for the Bitcoin price.

但是，指标丢失的另一个重要级别是365天的MA。正如分析师在图表中强调的那样，该系列的过去崩溃通常导致了比特币价格的巨大斗争时期。

It only remains to be seen how long BTC would have to stay under the level this time around, before its price reaches a bottom.

在价格达到最低点之前，BTC必须在这次的水平下保持多长时间才有待观察。

BTC price is currently trading at $86,304.90

BTC价格目前的交易价格为86,304.90美元