基於這種鏈趨勢，現在為比特幣打電話可能還為時過早

CryptoQuant的研究負責人揭示了為什麼根據鏈數據的趨勢，為比特幣撥打底部可能還為時過早。

The Head of Research at CryptoQuant has revealed why it may be too early to call a bottom for Bitcoin, based on the trend in on-chain data.

CryptoQuant的研究負責人揭示了為什麼根據鏈數據的趨勢，為比特幣撥打底部可能還為時過早。

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Has Plunged Under Its 365-Day MA

比特幣MVRV Z得分已在其365天的MA下跌落

比特幣MVRV Z得分已在其365天的MA下跌落

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has talked about why Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may not have reached a bottom yet. “All valuation metrics are in correction territory,” the analyst begins. “It can take more time.”

在X上的一篇新帖子中，CryptoQuant Research Julio Moreno負責人談到了為什麼比特幣（Crypto：BTC）可能還沒有達到底部。分析師開始說：“所有估值指標都處於糾正領域。” “這可能需要更多的時間。”

An indicator that Moreno has cited as an example of this trend is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. This indicator essentially tells us about how the market cap of the asset compares against its realized cap.

莫雷諾（Moreno）作為這種趨勢的一個例子的指標是實現價值（MVRV）z得分的市場價值。該指標實質上告訴我們資產的市值與已實現的上限的比較。

“Realized cap” is an on-chain capitalization model that calculates the total value of the BTC supply by assuming that each token in circulation has its ‘true’ value equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

“已實現的上限”是一個鏈資本化模型，它通過假設每個循環中的每個令牌的'true'值等於最後一次在區塊鏈上進行交易的``真實''值來計算BTC供應的總價值。

In other words, the realized cap sums up the cost basis of the cryptocurrency’s supply. As such, the model can be interpreted as a measure of the total amount of capital the investors as a whole have put into BTC.

換句話說，實現的上限總結了加密貨幣供應的成本基礎。因此，該模型可以解釋為投資者整體投入BTC的資本總量的衡量標準。

Since the MVRV Z-Score compares the market cap, which represents the value the investors are holding right now, against this initial investment, it tells us about the profit-loss status of the cryptocurrency’s user base.

由於MVRV Z得分比較了市場上限，該市場上限代表了投資者目前擁有的價值與這項初始投資的價值，因此它告訴我們加密貨幣用戶群的利潤損失狀態。

The MVRV Z-Score is similar to the popular MVRV Ratio, but where it differs from the latter is that it also applies a standard deviation test to pull out the extremes from the data.

MVRV Z分數與流行的MVRV比率相似，但是與後者不同的地方，它也採用標準偏差測試來從數據中刪除極端。

Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, as well as its 365-day moving average (MA), over the last few years:

現在，這是莫雷諾（Moreno）共享的圖表，該圖表顯示了過去幾年比特幣MVRV Z得分的趨勢以及其365天的移動平均水平（MA）：

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has recently seen a sharp decline. The reason for this plummet naturally lies in the crash that the asset’s price has just gone through, which has put many investors into a state of loss.

如上圖所示，比特幣MVRV Z分數最近急劇下降。這種墜落的原因自然在於資產價格剛剛經歷的崩潰，這使許多投資者處於損失狀態。

Despite the plummet, though, the indicator remains above the zero mark. Below this level, the overall market enters into a state of loss, so the boundary has historically proven to be an important one for the cryptocurrency.

儘管情況下降，但指示器仍保持在零標記之上。在此水平以下，整個市場進入損失狀態，因此在歷史上證明邊界對加密貨幣是重要的。

Another important level that the indicator has lost, however, is the 365-day MA. As the analyst has highlighted in the chart, past breakdowns of the line have generally led to notable periods of struggle for the Bitcoin price.

但是，指標丟失的另一個重要級別是365天的MA。正如分析師在圖表中強調的那樣，該系列的過去崩潰通常導致了比特幣價格的巨大斗爭時期。

It only remains to be seen how long BTC would have to stay under the level this time around, before its price reaches a bottom.

在價格達到最低點之前，BTC必須在這次的水平下保持多長時間才有待觀察。

BTC price is currently trading at $86,304.90

BTC價格目前的交易價格為86,304.90美元