当比特币价格低于 10 万美元时你应该购买吗？

去年对于比特币（BTC 3.40%）投资者来说是一个美好的时光，因为这种数字资产的价格在 2024 年增长了一倍多。这与其长期行为是一致的——这一过程的特点是沿着总体上行的方向极度波动。小路。

Bitcoin (BTC 3.40%) had a good year in 2024, with the digital asset's price rising by more than 50%. This was largely driven by optimism over the potential for the incoming Biden administration to take a friendlier regulatory stance toward crypto. However, after a post-election surge, Bitcoin is now trading about 15% below its all-time high. So some could view this as an opportunity to buy the dip.

比特币（BTC 3.40%）在2024年度过了美好的一年，该数字资产的价格上涨了50%以上。这主要是由于人们对即将上任的拜登政府对加密货币采取更友好的监管立场的可能性感到乐观。然而，在选举后飙升之后，比特币目前的交易价格比历史高点低约 15%。因此，一些人可能会将此视为逢低买入的机会。

But is buying Bitcoin while it's under $100,000 a smart choice? Let's take a closer look.

但在 10 万美元以下购买比特币是明智的选择吗？让我们仔细看看。

Bitcoin takes a breather

比特币喘口气

比特币喘口气

After a stellar 2024, Bitcoin is now taking a bit of a breather. The cryptocurrency started the year trading at about $30,000 and hit a new all-time high of about $92,000 on the last day of 2024.

在经历了辉煌的 2024 年之后，比特币现在正在喘口气。这种加密货币年初的交易价格约为 30,000 美元，并在 2024 年最后一天创下约 92,000 美元的历史新高。

However, the world's top cryptocurrency slipped below the $80,000 mark in early January. This decline came as a surprise to some investors, who were expecting Bitcoin to continue rallying after a strong 2024. But several analysts predicted that Bitcoin would take a breather after surging so quickly last year. And some investors could be viewing this pullback as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price.

然而，这一全球顶级加密货币在一月初跌破了 80,000 美元大关。这种下跌令一些投资者感到惊讶，他们原本预计比特币在 2024 年的强劲表现后将继续上涨。但一些分析师预测，比特币在去年如此迅速的飙升后将稍事休息。一些投资者可能将这次回调视为以较低价格购买比特币的机会。

Digital scarcity

数字稀缺

数字稀缺

Bitcoin bulls often compare it to gold, a store of value for a very long time. On the surface, this makes some sense.

比特币多头经常将其与黄金相比较，黄金是一种长期的价值储存手段。从表面上看，这是有一定道理的。

Gold is a scarce element, and while more is steadily being mined, the Earth only has a fixed amount of it. And while it has some industrial applications, gold's main uses are to make jewelry or to serve as an investment vehicle. In essence, it has a high value because people have decided that it's valuable, not necessarily because it's useful in any meaningful way.

黄金是一种稀缺元素，虽然越来越多的黄金被不断开采，但地球上的黄金数量却是固定的。虽然黄金有一些工业应用，但它的主要用途是制作珠宝或作为投资工具。从本质上讲，它具有很高的价值，因为人们认为它是有价值的，而不一定是因为它以任何有意义的方式有用。

You can argue that Bitcoin is viewed similarly: Its value is derived from the simple fact that people have decided to view it as valuable. But Bitcoin is scarcer than gold, because the amount of new supply coming into the market cannot be changed in response to rising demand. And the total mineable supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins -- of which more than 19.8 million have already been mined.

你可以说比特币也有类似的看法：它的价值源于一个简单的事实：人们决定将其视为有价值的。但比特币比黄金更稀缺，因为进入市场的新供应量无法根据不断增长的需求而改变。比特币的可开采总量固定为 2100 万枚，其中超过 1980 万枚已被开采。

Gold, on the other hand, becomes more economical to mine in hard-to-reach areas when it surges in price. This allows the supply of new gold to grow if economic circumstances warrant it. There's even talk of eventually mining for gold in outer space, where there are believed to be some asteroids with massive deposits.

另一方面，当价格飙升时，在难以到达的地区开采黄金变得更加经济。如果经济形势允许的话，这使得新黄金的供应量能够增长。甚至有人讨论最终会在外太空开采黄金，据信那里有一些小行星蕴藏着大量矿藏。

In addition to its scarcity, Bitcoin is easier to transport, easier to use in transactions, and much more divisible than gold. And in a world where economic activity is only going to become more digital, it's not crazy to think that Bitcoin will have a place as a store of value for many people around the world.

除了稀缺性之外，比特币还比黄金更容易运输、更容易在交易中使用，而且更容易分割。在一个经济活动只会变得更加数字化的世界里，认为比特币将成为世界各地许多人的价值储存手段并不疯狂。

Huge upside

巨大的上升空间

巨大的上升空间

Since Bitcoin generates no revenue, earnings, or cash flow, it's impossible to use traditional stock valuation metrics to put a price target on it. However, comparing it to gold can once again aid us in our analysis of the asset.

由于比特币不产生收入、收益或现金流，因此不可能使用传统的股票估值指标来为其设定价格目标。然而，将其与黄金进行比较可以再次帮助我们分析该资产。

The current value of all gold above ground is about $17.7 trillion, based on recent market prices. Bitcoin has superior properties when compared to the precious metal, so perhaps it's conservative to think that the crypto could rise more than ninefold to at least match gold's market cap one day. In this scenario, Bitcoin's ultimate price tag, based on the current supply of tokens, would be about $900,000.

根据最近的市场价格，目前所有地上黄金的价值约为 17.7 万亿美元。与贵金属相比，比特币具有优越的特性，因此认为加密货币可能会上涨九倍以上以至少有一天与黄金市值相匹配的想法也许是保守的。在这种情况下，根据当前的代币供应量，比特币的最终价格约为 90 万美元。

This makes buying this digital asset while it's less than $100,000 look like a smart choice.

这使得在低于 10 万美元的情况下购买这种数字资产看起来是一个明智的选择。