當比特幣價格低於 10 萬美元時，你應該購買嗎？

去年對比特幣（BTC 3.40%）投資者來說是一個美好的時光，因為這種數位資產的價格在2024 年增長了一倍多。沿著整體上行的方向極度波動。

Bitcoin (BTC 3.40%) had a good year in 2024, with the digital asset's price rising by more than 50%. This was largely driven by optimism over the potential for the incoming Biden administration to take a friendlier regulatory stance toward crypto. However, after a post-election surge, Bitcoin is now trading about 15% below its all-time high. So some could view this as an opportunity to buy the dip.

比特幣（BTC 3.40%）在2024年度過了美好的一年，該數位資產的價格上漲了50%以上。這主要是由於人們對即將上任的拜登政府對加密貨幣採取更友善的監管立場的可能性感到樂觀。然而，在選舉後飆升之後，比特幣目前的交易價格比歷史高點低約 15%。因此，有些人可能會將此視為逢低買入的機會。

But is buying Bitcoin while it's under $100,000 a smart choice? Let's take a closer look.

但在 10 萬美元以下購買比特幣是明智的選擇嗎？讓我們仔細看看。

Bitcoin takes a breather

比特幣喘口氣

比特幣喘口氣

After a stellar 2024, Bitcoin is now taking a bit of a breather. The cryptocurrency started the year trading at about $30,000 and hit a new all-time high of about $92,000 on the last day of 2024.

在經歷了輝煌的 2024 年之後，比特幣現在正在喘口氣。這種加密貨幣年初的交易價格約為 30,000 美元，並在 2024 年最後一天創下約 92,000 美元的歷史新高。

However, the world's top cryptocurrency slipped below the $80,000 mark in early January. This decline came as a surprise to some investors, who were expecting Bitcoin to continue rallying after a strong 2024. But several analysts predicted that Bitcoin would take a breather after surging so quickly last year. And some investors could be viewing this pullback as an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a lower price.

然而，這家全球頂級加密貨幣在一月初跌破了 8 萬美元大關。這種下跌令一些投資者感到驚訝，他們原本預計比特幣在 2024 年的強勁表現後將繼續上漲。一些投資者可能將這次回檔視為以較低價格購買比特幣的機會。

Digital scarcity

數位稀缺

數位稀缺

Bitcoin bulls often compare it to gold, a store of value for a very long time. On the surface, this makes some sense.

比特幣多頭經常將其與黃金相比較，黃金是一種長期的價值儲存手段。從表面上看，這是有一定道理的。

Gold is a scarce element, and while more is steadily being mined, the Earth only has a fixed amount of it. And while it has some industrial applications, gold's main uses are to make jewelry or to serve as an investment vehicle. In essence, it has a high value because people have decided that it's valuable, not necessarily because it's useful in any meaningful way.

黃金是一種稀缺元素，雖然越來越多的黃金被不斷開採，但地球上的黃金數量卻是固定的。雖然黃金有一些工業應用，但它的主要用途是製作珠寶或作為投資工具。從本質上講，它具有很高的價值，因為人們認為它是有價值的，而不一定是因為它以任何有意義的方式有用。

You can argue that Bitcoin is viewed similarly: Its value is derived from the simple fact that people have decided to view it as valuable. But Bitcoin is scarcer than gold, because the amount of new supply coming into the market cannot be changed in response to rising demand. And the total mineable supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins -- of which more than 19.8 million have already been mined.

你可以說比特幣也有類似的看法：它的價值源自於一個簡單的事實：人們決定將其視為有價值的。但比特幣比黃金更稀缺，因為進入市場的新供應無法根據不斷增長的需求而改變。比特幣的可開採總量固定為 2,100 萬枚，其中超過 1,980 萬枚已被開採。

Gold, on the other hand, becomes more economical to mine in hard-to-reach areas when it surges in price. This allows the supply of new gold to grow if economic circumstances warrant it. There's even talk of eventually mining for gold in outer space, where there are believed to be some asteroids with massive deposits.

另一方面，當價格飆升時，在難以到達的地區開採黃金變得更加經濟。如果經濟情勢允許的話，這使得新黃金的供應量能夠成長。甚至有人討論最終會在外太空開採黃金，據信那裡有一些小行星蘊藏著大量礦藏。

In addition to its scarcity, Bitcoin is easier to transport, easier to use in transactions, and much more divisible than gold. And in a world where economic activity is only going to become more digital, it's not crazy to think that Bitcoin will have a place as a store of value for many people around the world.

除了稀缺性之外，比特幣還比黃金更容易運輸、更容易在交易中使用，而且更容易分割。在一個經濟活動只會變得更加數位化的世界裡，認為比特幣將成為世界各地許多人的價值儲存手段並不瘋狂。

Huge upside

巨大的上升空間

巨大的上升空間

Since Bitcoin generates no revenue, earnings, or cash flow, it's impossible to use traditional stock valuation metrics to put a price target on it. However, comparing it to gold can once again aid us in our analysis of the asset.

由於比特幣不會產生收入、收益或現金流，因此不可能使用傳統的股票估值指標來為其設定價格目標。然而，將其與黃金進行比較可以再次幫助我們分析該資產。

The current value of all gold above ground is about $17.7 trillion, based on recent market prices. Bitcoin has superior properties when compared to the precious metal, so perhaps it's conservative to think that the crypto could rise more than ninefold to at least match gold's market cap one day. In this scenario, Bitcoin's ultimate price tag, based on the current supply of tokens, would be about $900,000.

根據最近的市場價格，目前所有地上黃金的價值約為 17.7 兆美元。與貴金屬相比，比特幣具有優越的特性，因此認為加密貨幣可能會上漲九倍以上以至少有一天與黃金市值相匹配的想法可能是保守的。在這種情況下，根據目前的代幣供應量，比特幣的最終價格約為 90 萬美元。

This makes buying this digital asset while it's less than $100,000 look like a smart choice.

這使得在低於 10 萬美元的情況下購買這種數位資產看起來是一個明智的選擇。