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今年对于比特币来说充满了催化剂。一月份,备受期待的现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)获得批准。
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has had a volatile ride in 2024 so far. After surging about 60% through the first three months of the year, it has traded in a relatively tight range since. As of Sept. 26, the world's top digital asset sits 11% below its all-time high from March.
到目前为止,比特币(CRYPTO:BTC)在 2024 年经历了波动。今年前三个月飙升约 60% 后,此后一直在相对狭窄的区间内交易。截至 9 月 26 日,这一全球顶级数字资产的价格较 3 月份以来的历史高点低了 11%。
The bulls are hoping that Bitcoin can break out and get back to producing monster returns. Should you buy this cryptocurrency while it's trading for less than $70,000?
看多者希望比特币能够突破并重新产生巨额回报。当这种加密货币的交易价格低于 70,000 美元时,您是否应该购买它?
Here are some factors to consider before making a decision.
以下是做出决定之前需要考虑的一些因素。
Several catalysts are working in Bitcoin's favor this year. In January, the highly anticipated spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved, and in total, they have seen $17.8 billion in inflows. Another catalyst is that Bitcoin underwent a "halving" in April, which is when the number of new tokens entering the market gets cut in half. This event happens roughly every four years, and in the year or so after, the crypto usually experiences a bull run. It's not clear yet if that will be the case this time.
今年有几个催化剂对比特币有利。一月份,备受期待的比特币现货交易所交易基金(ETF)获得批准,总共流入了 178 亿美元。另一个催化剂是比特币在四月份经历了“减半”,此时进入市场的新代币数量减少了一半。这种事件大约每四年发生一次,在之后的一年左右,加密货币通常会经历牛市。目前还不清楚这一次是否会出现这种情况。
Another catalyst that can work in Bitcoin's favor is what the Federal Reserve does. Earlier this month, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time in over four years, which investors are hoping is the start of a more accommodative stance.
另一个有利于比特币的催化剂是美联储的做法。本月早些时候,央行四年多来首次降息,投资者希望这是采取更加宽松立场的开始。
You might be wondering what the connection is between lower interest rates and Bitcoin. There isn't a direct relationship, but when rates are lower, it incentivizes investors to take on more risk in order to generate better returns. Cash sitting in savings accounts will earn less after the interest rate drops, so it makes sense to buy riskier assets, such as Bitcoin.
您可能想知道较低的利率和比特币之间有什么联系。虽然没有直接关系,但当利率较低时,它会激励投资者承担更多风险,以获得更好的回报。利率下降后,储蓄账户中的现金收益会减少,因此购买比特币等风险较高的资产是有意义的。
When you combine the successful ETF launches, Bitcoin's latest halving, and the prospect of more rates cuts by the central bank, it's difficult not to be bullish about this cryptocurrency.
当 ETF 的成功推出、比特币最近的减半以及央行进一步降息的前景结合起来时,很难不看好这种加密货币。
I believe it's smart to buy Bitcoin while it trades below $70,000. However, you shouldn't plan to only hold it for a few months or a year. This is an asset that requires a very long-term mentality from investors. That's because anything can happen in a short period of time, as investor sentiment is constantly shifting, and it will take several years and even decades to know Bitcoin's ultimate outcome.
我认为在比特币价格低于 70,000 美元时购买比特币是明智之举。但是,您不应该计划只持有几个月或一年。这是一项需要投资者具有非常长期心态的资产。因为任何事情都可能在短时间内发生,投资者情绪不断变化,需要几年甚至几十年的时间才能知道比特币的最终结果。
But this cryptocurrency does have value. When it was created over a decade ago, it marked the first time that money could be transferred electronically without the need for an intermediary. Citizens in developed countries might not think much of it, but for people living in emerging economies, Bitcoin provides access to the financial system.
但这种加密货币确实有价值。当它在十多年前创建时,它标志着资金第一次可以在不需要中介的情况下进行电子转移。发达国家的公民可能不会太在意,但对于生活在新兴经济体的人们来说,比特币提供了进入金融体系的机会。
Another key aspect of Bitcoin that's important for investors to understand is its fixed supply cap of 21 million. The U.S. dollar, which is the world's reserve currency, has been constantly debased over the years. The central bank continues to grow the money supply partly to fund the government's ongoing deficits. The fact that there's an asset out there that anyone can own and that has a fixed supply might be compelling for investors to park at least a fraction of their savings in.
比特币的另一个对投资者来说很重要的关键方面是其 2100 万的固定供应上限。美元作为世界储备货币,多年来不断贬值。央行继续增加货币供应量,部分是为了弥补政府持续的赤字。事实上,存在一种任何人都可以拥有且供应量固定的资产,这可能会迫使投资者将至少一部分储蓄投入其中。
It's difficult to try and figure out what Bitcoin might be worth one day. One useful comparison is gold, which is an established store of value, which is what Bitcoin is aiming to be. All the gold that's ever been mined is estimated to be worth $18.1 trillion. If Bitcoin one day reaches parity with the precious metal, its price has roughly 1,300% upside from today's level of about $65,000. And if the digital asset becomes even more popular, then the potential for returns is even larger.
尝试弄清楚比特币有一天可能值多少钱是很困难的。一个有用的比较是黄金,它是一种既定的价值储存手段,这也是比特币的目标。已开采的所有黄金估计价值 18.1 万亿美元。如果比特币有一天能够与贵金属持平,那么其价格将比今天约 65,000 美元的水平上涨约 1,300%。如果数字资产变得更加流行,那么回报的潜力就会更大。
As part of a well-diversified portfolio, buying some Bitcoin right now makes sense.
作为多元化投资组合的一部分,现在购买一些比特币是有意义的。
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