在Bitfinex Exchange Suger上，看涨比特币（BTC）的保证金位置近六个月内达到其最高水平

比特币（BTC）利用杠杆的比特币（BTC）位置在近六个月内飙升至最高水平，达到80,333 BTC

Optimistic Bitcoin (BTC) positions utilizing leverage on the Bitfinex exchange have soared to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC on March 20. This amounts to approximately $6.92 billion at the prevailing exchange rate.

利用Bitfinex Exchange的杠杆作用的乐观比特币（BTC）位置在近六个月内飙升至最高水平，在3月20日达到80,333 BTC。以现成的汇率，这一数量约为69.2亿美元。

These leveraged long positions, also known as margin longs, have experienced a 27.5% surge since February 20, according to Ben Armstrong, host of the "Armstrong & Associates" show. This substantial increase has fueled speculation that the 12.5% gain in Bitcoin's price from the $76,700 low hit on March 11 is being driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.

根据“阿姆斯特朗与同事”的主持人本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）的说法，这些杠杆率的长位置（也称为Margin Longs）经历了27.5％的激增。这种大幅度的增长引发了人们的猜测，即3月11日的76,700美元低点的比特币价格增长了12.5％，这是由杠杆驱动的，可能是不可持续的。

However, it's important to note that Bitcoin's price movements do not always directly correspond to the shifts in bullish leveraged positions on Bitfinex. For instance, over the three-week period ending July 12, large investors added 13,620 BTC in margin longs, while Bitcoin's price slipped from $65,500 to $58,000. Similarly, a two-week increase of 8,990 BTC in margin longs took place leading into September 11, and this coincided with a price decline from $60,000.

但是，重要的是要注意，比特币的价格变动并不总是直接与Bitfinex杠杆位置的转变相对应。例如，在截至7月12日的三周期间，大型投资者增加了13,620 BTC的保证金，而比特币的价格从65,500美元降至58,000美元。同样，在9月11日之前发生了两周的增长距离为8,990 BTC，这与价格下降了60,000美元。

In the long term, these savvy investors have timed the market well, as Bitcoin's price eventually surpassed $88,000 in November, and the margin long positions were reduced by 30% by year-end. Essentially, these traders are highly profitable but exhibit a much higher risk tolerance and patience than the average investor.

从长远来看，这些精明的投资者在市场上的时间良好，因为比特币的价格最终超过了11月的88,000美元，而随着年底，比特币的价格降低了30％。从本质上讲，这些交易者的盈利能力很高，但与普通投资者相比，风险承受能力和耐心更高。

An increase in leverage demand does not necessarily translate into upward pressure on Bitcoin's price. For instance, despite the substantial rise in margin longs on Bitfinex, there has been a corresponding decrease in demand for leveraged long positions on other exchanges, such as OKX.

杠杆需求的增加并不一定会转化为比特币价格的向上压力。例如，尽管Bitfinex上的边缘距离大幅上升，但在其他交易所（例如OKX）上对杠杆率的长位置的需求也相应减少。

Over the same 30-day period, demand for Bitcoin margin longs has declined significantly on OKX. The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio on OKX currently shows longs outperforming shorts by a factor of 15, the lowest level in over three months.

在相同的30天期间，对OKX的比特币保证金需求大大下降。 OKX上的比特币长距离保证金比率目前显示出长距离的短裤15倍，这是三个月来最低的水平。

Historically, excessive confidence has driven this ratio above 40, most recently in late February when Bitcoin's price surged past $105,000. Conversely, a ratio below 5 typically signals a strong bearish sentiment.

从历史上看，过度的信心使该比率超过40，最近2月下旬，比特币的价格飙升了105,000美元。相反，低于5的比率通常表示强烈的看跌感。

To rule out external factors limited to margin markets, one should also analyze Bitcoin options. If traders anticipate a correction, demand for put (sell) options will rise, pushing the 25% delta skew above 6%. Conversely, during bullish periods, this metric typically falls below -6%.

为了排除仅限利润市场的外部因素，还应分析比特币选项。如果交易者预计更正，对（卖出）期权的需求将上升，将25％的三角洲偏差提高到6％以上。相反，在看涨时期，该度量通常低于-6％。

Between March 10 and March 18, the Bitcoin options market showed signs of bearish sentiment but has since shifted to a neutral stance. This suggests that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for both upward and downward price movements.

在3月10日至3月18日之间，比特币期权市场显示出看跌的迹象，但此后已转变为中立的立场。这表明鲸鱼和做市商正在为上下价格变动定价类似的风险。

Given the margin market trends on OKX and the current pricing of BTC options, a Bitcoin bull run is far from a consensus expectation.

鉴于OKX的利润率市场趋势和当前的BTC选项定价，比特币牛的运行远非达成共识的期望。

Bitcoin's lack of bullish momentum can partly be attributed to the higher inflation outlook and weaker economic growth projections presented by the US Federal Reserve on Monday.

比特币缺乏看涨的势头可能部分归因于美国美联储周一提出的更高的通货膨胀前景和较弱的经济增长预测。

Concerns over a potential recession, exacerbated by a global tariff war, have made investors more risk-averse. As a result, even though whales are increasing their exposure through Bitcoin margin longs, overall market sentiment remains subdued.

由于全球关税战争加剧了潜在的衰退的担忧，使投资者更加厌恶风险。结果，即使鲸鱼通过比特币利润率延长了其曝光率，但总体市场情绪仍然柔和。