在Bitfinex Exchange Suger上，看漲比特幣（BTC）的保證金位置近六個月內達到其最高水平

比特幣（BTC）利用槓桿的比特幣（BTC）位置在近六個月內飆升至最高水平，達到80,333 BTC

Optimistic Bitcoin (BTC) positions utilizing leverage on the Bitfinex exchange have soared to their highest level in nearly six months, reaching 80,333 BTC on March 20. This amounts to approximately $6.92 billion at the prevailing exchange rate.

利用Bitfinex Exchange的槓桿作用的樂觀比特幣（BTC）位置在近六個月內飆升至最高水平，在3月20日達到80,333 BTC。以現成的匯率，這一數量約為69.2億美元。

These leveraged long positions, also known as margin longs, have experienced a 27.5% surge since February 20, according to Ben Armstrong, host of the "Armstrong & Associates" show. This substantial increase has fueled speculation that the 12.5% gain in Bitcoin's price from the $76,700 low hit on March 11 is being driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.

根據“阿姆斯特朗與同事”的主持人本·阿姆斯特朗（Ben Armstrong）的說法，這些槓桿率的長位置（也稱為Margin Longs）經歷了27.5％的激增。這種大幅度的增長引發了人們的猜測，即3月11日的76,700美元低點的比特幣價格增長了12.5％，這是由槓桿驅動的，可能是不可持續的。

However, it's important to note that Bitcoin's price movements do not always directly correspond to the shifts in bullish leveraged positions on Bitfinex. For instance, over the three-week period ending July 12, large investors added 13,620 BTC in margin longs, while Bitcoin's price slipped from $65,500 to $58,000. Similarly, a two-week increase of 8,990 BTC in margin longs took place leading into September 11, and this coincided with a price decline from $60,000.

但是，重要的是要注意，比特幣的價格變動並不總是直接與Bitfinex槓杆位置的轉變相對應。例如，在截至7月12日的三週期間，大型投資者增加了13,620 BTC的保證金，而比特幣的價格從65,500美元降至58,000美元。同樣，在9月11日之前發生了兩週的增長距離為8,990 BTC，這與價格下降了60,000美元。

In the long term, these savvy investors have timed the market well, as Bitcoin's price eventually surpassed $88,000 in November, and the margin long positions were reduced by 30% by year-end. Essentially, these traders are highly profitable but exhibit a much higher risk tolerance and patience than the average investor.

從長遠來看，這些精明的投資者在市場上的時間良好，因為比特幣的價格最終超過了11月的88,000美元，而隨著年底，比特幣的價格降低了30％。從本質上講，這些交易者的盈利能力很高，但與普通投資者相比，風險承受能力和耐心更高。

An increase in leverage demand does not necessarily translate into upward pressure on Bitcoin's price. For instance, despite the substantial rise in margin longs on Bitfinex, there has been a corresponding decrease in demand for leveraged long positions on other exchanges, such as OKX.

槓桿需求的增加並不一定會轉化為比特幣價格的向上壓力。例如，儘管Bitfinex上的邊緣距離大幅上升，但在其他交易所（例如OKX）上對槓桿率的長位置的需求也相應減少。

Over the same 30-day period, demand for Bitcoin margin longs has declined significantly on OKX. The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio on OKX currently shows longs outperforming shorts by a factor of 15, the lowest level in over three months.

在相同的30天期間，對OKX的比特幣保證金需求大大下降。 OKX上的比特幣長距離保證金比率目前顯示出長距離的短褲15倍，這是三個月來最低的水平。

Historically, excessive confidence has driven this ratio above 40, most recently in late February when Bitcoin's price surged past $105,000. Conversely, a ratio below 5 typically signals a strong bearish sentiment.

從歷史上看，過度的信心使該比率超過40，最近2月下旬，比特幣的價格飆升了105,000美元。相反，低於5的比率通常表示強烈的看跌感。

To rule out external factors limited to margin markets, one should also analyze Bitcoin options. If traders anticipate a correction, demand for put (sell) options will rise, pushing the 25% delta skew above 6%. Conversely, during bullish periods, this metric typically falls below -6%.

為了排除僅限利潤市場的外部因素，還應分析比特幣選項。如果交易者預計更正，對（賣出）期權的需求將上升，將25％的三角洲偏差提高到6％以上。相反，在看漲時期，該度量通常低於-6％。

Between March 10 and March 18, the Bitcoin options market showed signs of bearish sentiment but has since shifted to a neutral stance. This suggests that whales and market makers are pricing similar risks for both upward and downward price movements.

在3月10日至3月18日之間，比特幣期權市場顯示出看跌的跡象，但此後已轉變為中立的立場。這表明鯨魚和做市商正在為上下價格變動定價類似的風險。

Given the margin market trends on OKX and the current pricing of BTC options, a Bitcoin bull run is far from a consensus expectation.

鑑於OKX的利潤率市場趨勢和當前的BTC選項定價，比特幣牛的運行遠非達成共識的期望。

Bitcoin's lack of bullish momentum can partly be attributed to the higher inflation outlook and weaker economic growth projections presented by the US Federal Reserve on Monday.

比特幣缺乏看漲的勢頭可能部分歸因於美國美聯儲周一提出的更高的通貨膨脹前景和較弱的經濟增長預測。

Concerns over a potential recession, exacerbated by a global tariff war, have made investors more risk-averse. As a result, even though whales are increasing their exposure through Bitcoin margin longs, overall market sentiment remains subdued.

由於全球關稅戰爭加劇了潛在的衰退的擔憂，使投資者更加厭惡風險。結果，即使鯨魚通過比特幣利潤率延長了其曝光率，但總體市場情緒仍然柔和。