比特币市场前景：随着市场适应特朗普总统任期，波动性加剧

如果你期待远离电脑过一个安静的圣诞节，期待比特币在年底稳步上涨，那就算了。

bitcoin price today live updates: crypto market dips as fed officials hint at slower rate cuts, trump bitcoin plans eyed

比特币价格今日实时更新：加密货币市场下跌，美联储官员暗示降息速度放缓，特朗普比特币计划受到关注

Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Omkar Godbole（除非另有说明，所有时间均为东部时间）

If you were looking forward to a quiet Christmas away from your computer, expecting bitcoin to rise steadily through the year-end, forget it. Looks like the Fed has dashed those plans.

如果你期待远离电脑过一个安静的圣诞节，期待比特币在年底稳步上涨，那就算了。看起来美联储已经粉碎了这些计划。

First of all, Chair Jerome Powell's comments distancing the central bank from President-elect Donald Trump's potential creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve (CoinDesk) mean traders hoping for one will need some solid reassurance. Many are likely to sit on the sidelines until the new administration makes good on its promises. That will weaken the market's bid side until Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

首先，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的言论使央行与候任总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）可能建立的比特币战略储备（CoinDesk）保持距离，这意味着希望建立比特币战略储备的交易员需要得到一些可靠的保证。在新政府兑现承诺之前，许多人可能会袖手旁观。这将削弱市场的买盘，直到特朗普 1 月 20 日就职。

The second concern revolves around rate projections. Fed officials are anticipating just two rate cuts in 2025, saying they see the benchmark borrowing cost dropping to 3.9% in 12 months' time from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is a 50 basis-point upward revision from an earlier forecast of 3.40%.

第二个担忧涉及利率预测。美联储官员预计 2025 年只会降息两次，并表示基准借贷成本将在 12 个月内从目前的 4.25%-4.5% 范围降至 3.9%。这比之前预测的 3.40% 上调了 50 个基点。

The market could quickly question a cut to below 4% if incoming data points to sticky inflation and/or labor market strength. This situation has led to concerns that long-end rates, including the 10-year yield, might be too low, according to ING.

如果即将公布的数据显示通胀粘性和/或劳动力市场强劲，市场可能很快就会质疑降息至 4% 以下。荷兰国际集团表示，这种情况引发了人们对包括10年期国债收益率在内的长期利率可能过低的担忧。

Interestingly, the 10-year yield has just broken out of a 14-month downward trend that characterized bitcoin's bull run to over $100,000 from $30,000. A further rise in yields could bolster the already strong while triggering a broader decline in risk assets, including BTC. Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 overnight and dragged the broader market down along with it.

有趣的是，10 年期国债收益率刚刚突破了 14 个月的下降趋势，比特币牛市从 30,000 美元升至超过 100,000 美元。收益率的进一步上升可能会提振本已强劲的资产，同时引发包括比特币在内的风险资产更广泛的下跌。比特币隔夜跌破 10 万美元，拖累大盘随之下跌。

This yield breakout poses particular concerns for ether, often viewed as an "internet bond" with an annualized staking yield of around 3%, weakening the case for a sustained bounce in the ETH-BTC ratio. The continued decline in risk-sensitive assets like the Australian and New Zealand dollars and emerging-market currencies, partly reflecting worries about the Chinese economy, also signals caution.

这种收益率突破对以太坊造成了特别的担忧，以太坊通常被视为一种“互联网债券”，其年化质押收益率约为 3%，削弱了 ETH-BTC 比率持续反弹的理由。澳元、新西兰元和新兴市场货币等风险敏感资产的持续下跌，部分反映了对中国经济的担忧，也发出了谨慎的信号。

Still, pullbacks of 20% or more are typical in crypto bull markets, and the overall outlook remains positive.

尽管如此，20% 或更多的回调在加密货币牛市中是典型的，总体前景仍然乐观。

"Looking ahead, heightened volatility is on the horizon as markets adjust to the expectations surrounding Donald Trump’s presidency. Although short-term turbulence may occur, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ether remains bullish," said Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN.

BRN 分析师 Valentin Fournier 表示：“展望未来，随着市场调整对唐纳德·特朗普总统任期的预期，波动性即将加剧。尽管可能会出现短期动荡，但比特币和以太币的长期前景仍然看涨。” 。

In this uncertain climate, traders might seek refuge in high-yielding crypto assets like Ethena's USDe, which offers returns of around 12%. Pseudonymous analyst OxJeff suggests these pullbacks could present a golden opportunity to invest in tokens linked to AI-powered systems in the blockchain space. Candidates to watch include AI16Z, ZEREBRO, VIRTUAL, MODE, and DOLOS. Stay alert!

在这种不确定的环境下，交易者可能会寻求高收益加密资产的庇护，例如 Ethena 的 USDe，其回报率约为 12%。匿名分析师 OxJeff 表示，这些回调可能为投资与区块链领域人工智能驱动系统相关的代币提供了绝佳机会。值得关注的候选者包括 AI16Z、ZEREBRO、VIRTUAL、MODE 和 DOLOS。保持警惕！

What to Watch

看什么

Token Events

代币事件

Conferences:

会议：

Token Talk

令牌谈话

By Shaurya MalwaMemecoins and AI tokens lead Binance users' trading activity

作者：Shaurya MalwaMemecoins 和 AI 代币引领币安用户的交易活动

AI tokens are predicted to be the stars of 2025, with nearly 24% of respondents in a survey of 27,000 Binance users saying they'll lead market growth next year. Memecoins are not far behind, with 19% saying they expect them to rise next year. The tokens are fun, popular and currently the most held crypto assets, with 16% of Binance users owning them. That's even more than bitcoin, at 14%.

人工智能代币预计将成为 2025 年的明星，在对 27,000 名币安用户进行的调查中，近 24% 的受访者表示，人工智能代币将引领明年的市场增长。 Memecoin 也不甘落后，19% 的人表示预计明年会上涨。这些代币很有趣、很受欢迎，也是目前持有量最大的加密资产，16% 的币安用户拥有它们。这甚至超过了比特币的 14%。

The survey found that 45% of participants were new to the scene, joining only in 2024 and saying they were "still learning" their way across the market. Over 40% have been around for one to five years. Most aren't betting the farm on crypto, with 44% of respondents having less than 10% of their money exposed to it. Trading, however, is common, with almost a third trading daily.

调查发现，45% 的参与者是这个领域的新手，2024 年才加入，并表示他们“仍在学习”整个市场的道路。超过 40% 的存在时间为一到五年。大多数人并没有把全部赌注押在加密货币上，44% 的受访者将自己的资金投入加密货币的比例不到 10%。然而，交易很常见，每天几乎有三分之一的交易。

It is not all fun and games, though. Many respondents said they expect to see more maturity and real-world relevance in the crypto industry in the coming year. A notable 19% of the sample said they expect increased crypto regulations over the next 12 months, and 16% anticipate greater participation from traditional financial institutions and institutional investors. In addition, 17% foresee wider implementation of blockchain technology in real-world applications.

不过，这并不全是乐趣和游戏。许多受访者表示，他们预计来年加密货币行业会更加成熟和与现实世界相关。值得注意的是，19% 的样本表示，他们预计未来 12 个月内加密货币监管将会加强，16% 预计传统金融机构和机构投资者将更多参与。此外，17% 的人预计区块链技术将在现实世界应用中得到更广泛的应用。

Derivatives Positioning

衍生品仓位

Market Movements:

市场走势：

Bitcoin Stats:

比特币统计：

Basket Performance

篮子表现

Technical Analysis

技术分析

Crypto Equities

加密股票

ETF Flows

ETF 流量

Spot BTC ETFs:

现货 BTC ETF：

Spot ETH ETFs

现货 ETH ETF

Source: Farside Investors

资料来源：Farside 投资者

Overnight Flows

隔夜流量

Chart of the Day

每日图表

While You Were Sleeping

当你熟睡时

In the Ether

在以太中