比特幣市場前景：隨著市場適應川普總統任期，波動性加劇

如果你期待遠離電腦過一個安靜的聖誕節，期待比特幣在年底穩步上漲，那就算了。

bitcoin price today live updates: crypto market dips as fed officials hint at slower rate cuts, trump bitcoin plans eyed

比特幣價格今日即時更新：加密貨幣市場下跌，因聯準會官員暗示降息速度放緩，川普比特幣計畫受到關注

Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Omkar Godbole（除非另有說明，所有時間均為東部時間）

If you were looking forward to a quiet Christmas away from your computer, expecting bitcoin to rise steadily through the year-end, forget it. Looks like the Fed has dashed those plans.

如果你期待遠離電腦過一個安靜的聖誕節，期待比特幣在年底穩步上漲，那就算了。看起來聯準會已經粉碎了這些計畫。

First of all, Chair Jerome Powell's comments distancing the central bank from President-elect Donald Trump's potential creation of a strategic bitcoin reserve (CoinDesk) mean traders hoping for one will need some solid reassurance. Many are likely to sit on the sidelines until the new administration makes good on its promises. That will weaken the market's bid side until Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

首先，主席鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的言論使央行與候任總統唐納德·川普（Donald Trump）可能建立的比特幣戰略儲備（CoinDesk）保持距離，這意味著希望建立比特幣戰略儲備的交易員需要得到一些可靠的保證。在新政府兌現承諾之前，許多人可能會袖手旁觀。這將削弱市場的買盤，直到川普 1 月 20 日就職。

The second concern revolves around rate projections. Fed officials are anticipating just two rate cuts in 2025, saying they see the benchmark borrowing cost dropping to 3.9% in 12 months' time from the current 4.25%-4.5% range. That is a 50 basis-point upward revision from an earlier forecast of 3.40%.

第二個擔憂涉及利率預測。聯準會官員預計 2025 年只會降息兩次，並表示基準借貸成本將在 12 個月內從目前的 4.25%-4.5% 範圍降至 3.9%。這比先前預測的 3.40% 上調了 50 個基點。

The market could quickly question a cut to below 4% if incoming data points to sticky inflation and/or labor market strength. This situation has led to concerns that long-end rates, including the 10-year yield, might be too low, according to ING.

如果即將公佈的數據顯示通膨黏性和/或勞動力市場強勁，市場可能很快就會質疑降息至 4% 以下。荷蘭國際集團表示，這種情況引發了人們對包括10年期公債殖利率在內的長期利率可能過低的擔憂。

Interestingly, the 10-year yield has just broken out of a 14-month downward trend that characterized bitcoin's bull run to over $100,000 from $30,000. A further rise in yields could bolster the already strong while triggering a broader decline in risk assets, including BTC. Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 overnight and dragged the broader market down along with it.

有趣的是，10 年期公債殖利率剛剛突破了 14 個月的下降趨勢，比特幣牛市從 3 萬美元升至超過 10 萬美元。收益率的進一步上升可能會提振本已強勁的資產，同時引發包括比特幣在內的風險資產更廣泛的下跌。比特幣隔夜跌破 10 萬美元，拖累大盤隨之下跌。

This yield breakout poses particular concerns for ether, often viewed as an "internet bond" with an annualized staking yield of around 3%, weakening the case for a sustained bounce in the ETH-BTC ratio. The continued decline in risk-sensitive assets like the Australian and New Zealand dollars and emerging-market currencies, partly reflecting worries about the Chinese economy, also signals caution.

這種殖利率突破對以太坊造成了特別的擔憂，以太坊通常被視為一種“互聯網債券”，其年化質押收益率約為 3%，削弱了 ETH-BTC 比率持續反彈的理由。澳元、紐西蘭元和新興市場貨幣等風險敏感資產的持續下跌，部分反映了對中國經濟的擔憂，也發出了謹慎的訊號。

Still, pullbacks of 20% or more are typical in crypto bull markets, and the overall outlook remains positive.

儘管如此，20% 或更多的回調在加密貨幣牛市中是典型的，整體前景仍然樂觀。

"Looking ahead, heightened volatility is on the horizon as markets adjust to the expectations surrounding Donald Trump’s presidency. Although short-term turbulence may occur, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ether remains bullish," said Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN.

BRN 分析師Valentin Fournier 表示：「展望未來，隨著市場調整對唐納德·川普總統任期的預期，波動性即將加劇。儘管可能會出現短期動盪，但比特幣和以太幣的長期前景仍然看漲。 ” 。

In this uncertain climate, traders might seek refuge in high-yielding crypto assets like Ethena's USDe, which offers returns of around 12%. Pseudonymous analyst OxJeff suggests these pullbacks could present a golden opportunity to invest in tokens linked to AI-powered systems in the blockchain space. Candidates to watch include AI16Z, ZEREBRO, VIRTUAL, MODE, and DOLOS. Stay alert!

在這種不確定的環境下，交易者可能會尋求高收益加密資產的庇護，例如 Ethena 的 USDe，其回報率約為 12%。匿名分析師 OxJeff 表示，這些回檔可能為投資與區塊鏈領域人工智慧驅動系統相關的代幣提供了絕佳機會。值得關注的候選人包括 AI16Z、ZEREBRO、VIRTUAL、MODE 和 DOLOS。保持警惕！

What to Watch

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By Shaurya MalwaMemecoins and AI tokens lead Binance users' trading activity

作者：Shaurya MalwaMemecoins 和 AI 代幣引領幣安用戶的交易活動

AI tokens are predicted to be the stars of 2025, with nearly 24% of respondents in a survey of 27,000 Binance users saying they'll lead market growth next year. Memecoins are not far behind, with 19% saying they expect them to rise next year. The tokens are fun, popular and currently the most held crypto assets, with 16% of Binance users owning them. That's even more than bitcoin, at 14%.

人工智慧代幣預計將成為 2025 年的明星，在對 27,000 名幣安用戶進行的調查中，近 24% 的受訪者表示，人工智慧代幣將引領明年的市場成長。 Memecoin 也不甘落後，19% 的人表示預計明年會上漲。這些代幣很有趣、很受歡迎，也是目前持有量最大的加密資產，16% 的幣安用戶擁有它們。這甚至超過了比特幣的 14%。

The survey found that 45% of participants were new to the scene, joining only in 2024 and saying they were "still learning" their way across the market. Over 40% have been around for one to five years. Most aren't betting the farm on crypto, with 44% of respondents having less than 10% of their money exposed to it. Trading, however, is common, with almost a third trading daily.

調查發現，45% 的參與者是這個領域的新手，2024 年才加入，並表示他們「仍在學習」整個市場的道路。超過 40% 的存在時間為一到五年。大多數人並沒有把全部賭注押在加密貨幣上，44% 的受訪者將自己的資金投入加密貨幣的比例不到 10%。然而，交易很常見，每天幾乎有三分之一的交易。

It is not all fun and games, though. Many respondents said they expect to see more maturity and real-world relevance in the crypto industry in the coming year. A notable 19% of the sample said they expect increased crypto regulations over the next 12 months, and 16% anticipate greater participation from traditional financial institutions and institutional investors. In addition, 17% foresee wider implementation of blockchain technology in real-world applications.

不過，這並非全是樂趣和遊戲。許多受訪者表示，他們預期來年加密貨幣產業會更加成熟和與現實世界相關。值得注意的是，19% 的樣本表示，他們預計未來 12 個月內加密貨幣監管將會加強，16% 預計傳統金融機構和機構投資者將更多參與。此外，17% 的人預計區塊鏈技術將在現實世界應用中得到更廣泛的應用。

Derivatives Positioning

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Basket Performance

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Technical Analysis

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Source: Farside Investors

資料來源：Farside 投資者

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