比特币市场观察

2024 年 2 月

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to rise and is approaching the $100,000 mark. As of December 1, 2024, the price of Bitcoin stood at $97,227. Although the price briefly dropped to $95,758, it subsequently stabilized above $97,000. It is worth noting that this price level could alienate retail investors.

比特币（BTC）价格持续上涨，接近 10 万美元大关。截至 2024 年 12 月 1 日，比特币的价格为 97,227 美元。虽然价格短暂跌至95,758美元，但随后稳定在97,000美元上方。值得注意的是，这个价格水平可能会疏远散户投资者。

In addition to Bitcoin, altcoins such as SHIB, FIL, MNT, and AAVE are also expected to see an uptrend. However, there is no clear conclusion on how Trump's re-election as president will affect the cryptocurrency sector.

除了比特币之外，SHIB、FIL、MNT 和 AAVE 等山寨币也有望出现上涨趋势。然而，特朗普连任总统将如何影响加密货币行业，目前还没有明确的结论。

Among institutional investors, Hong Kong-based gaming company Boyaa Interactive has converted its Ethereum holdings into nearly $50 million worth of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Rumble plans to invest up to $20 million in Bitcoin, largely driven by increased institutional adoption and an improving political environment in the United States. In addition, Fund I of Recursive Capital, funded by Jack Dorsey, is supporting Bitcoin startup projects in Africa.

在机构投资者中，总部位于香港的游戏公司博雅互动已将其持有的以太坊转换为价值近 5000 万美元的比特币。与此同时，Rumble 计划投资最多 2000 万美元的比特币，这主要是由于美国机构采用率的提高和政治环境的改善。此外，由 Jack Dorsey 资助的 Recursive Capital I 基金正在支持非洲的比特币初创项目。

In terms of market performance, XRP surpassed Solana, hitting a 7-year high of $2, while Ethereum also hit a six-month high. It is worth noting that Ethereum futures open interest has reached a record high of $23 billion, showing a surge in market interest in Ethereum derivatives. At the same time, Ethereum whales' recent $188 million purchase may push its price above $4,000.

从市场表现来看，XRP 超越 Solana，触及 2 美元的 7 年新高，而以太坊也触及 6 个月新高。值得注意的是，以太坊期货持仓量已创历史新高，达到230亿美元，显示市场对以太坊衍生品的兴趣激增。与此同时，以太坊鲸鱼最近 1.88 亿美元的购买可能会推动其价格突破 4000 美元。

Looking ahead, the market expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within a year. However, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, holds a different view, believing that Bitcoin may pull back to $60,000. Currently, $5.34 billion worth of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, which may indicate that the market is about to see a pullback or rebound. If demand continues to exceed supply, Bitcoin will break through $100,000 in the near future.

展望未来，市场预计比特币的价格将在一年内达到 25 万美元。不过，《富爸爸穷爸爸》一书的作者罗伯特清崎却持有不同的观点，他认为比特币可能会回调至6万美元。目前，价值53.4亿美元的比特币已从交易所撤出，这可能预示着市场即将出现回调或反弹。如果需求持续超过供应，比特币将在不久的将来突破 10 万美元。

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin's position as a wealth preservation tool is increasingly consolidated, and its volatility has been lower than that of technology stocks such as Nvidia and AMD. The US Bitcoin ETF currently holds more than 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for 5% of the total supply. Globally, Brazil has proposed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, while El Salvador is exploring the use of volcanic energy for Bitcoin mining. With global liquidity expected to increase by $20 trillion, analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in 2025.

值得一提的是，比特币作为财富保值工具的地位日益巩固，其波动性已低于英伟达、AMD等科技股。美国比特币ETF目前持有超过100万枚比特币，占总供应量的5%。在全球范围内，巴西提出了战略性比特币储备法案，而萨尔瓦多正在探索利用火山能进行比特币挖矿。随着全球流动性预计增加 20 万亿美元，分析师预测 2025 年比特币可能达到 15 万美元。