比特幣市場觀察

2024 年 2 月

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to rise and is approaching the $100,000 mark. As of December 1, 2024, the price of Bitcoin stood at $97,227. Although the price briefly dropped to $95,758, it subsequently stabilized above $97,000. It is worth noting that this price level could alienate retail investors.

比特幣（BTC）價格持續上漲，接近 10 萬美元大關。截至 2024 年 12 月 1 日，比特幣的價格為 97,227 美元。雖然價格短暫跌至95,758美元，但隨後穩定在97,000美元上方。值得注意的是，這個價格水準可能會疏遠散戶投資者。

In addition to Bitcoin, altcoins such as SHIB, FIL, MNT, and AAVE are also expected to see an uptrend. However, there is no clear conclusion on how Trump's re-election as president will affect the cryptocurrency sector.

除了比特幣之外，SHIB、FIL、MNT 和 AAVE 等山寨幣也有望出現上漲趨勢。然而，川普連任總統將如何影響加密貨幣產業，目前還沒有明確的結論。

Among institutional investors, Hong Kong-based gaming company Boyaa Interactive has converted its Ethereum holdings into nearly $50 million worth of Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Rumble plans to invest up to $20 million in Bitcoin, largely driven by increased institutional adoption and an improving political environment in the United States. In addition, Fund I of Recursive Capital, funded by Jack Dorsey, is supporting Bitcoin startup projects in Africa.

在機構投資者中，總部位於香港的遊戲公司博雅互動已將其持有的以太坊轉換為價值近 5000 萬美元的比特幣。同時，Rumble 計劃投資最多 2000 萬美元的比特幣，這主要是由於美國機構採用率的提高和政治環境的改善。此外，由 Jack Dorsey 資助的 Recursive Capital I 基金正在支持非洲的比特幣新創計畫。

In terms of market performance, XRP surpassed Solana, hitting a 7-year high of $2, while Ethereum also hit a six-month high. It is worth noting that Ethereum futures open interest has reached a record high of $23 billion, showing a surge in market interest in Ethereum derivatives. At the same time, Ethereum whales' recent $188 million purchase may push its price above $4,000.

從市場表現來看，XRP 超越 Solana，觸及 2 美元的 7 年新高，而以太坊也觸及 6 個月新高。值得注意的是，以太坊期貨持倉量已創歷史新高，達到230億美元，顯示市場對以太坊衍生性商品的興趣激增。與此同時，以太坊鯨魚最近 1.88 億美元的購買可能會推動其價格突破 4000 美元。

Looking ahead, the market expects the price of Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within a year. However, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, holds a different view, believing that Bitcoin may pull back to $60,000. Currently, $5.34 billion worth of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges, which may indicate that the market is about to see a pullback or rebound. If demand continues to exceed supply, Bitcoin will break through $100,000 in the near future.

展望未來，市場預計比特幣的價格將在一年內達到 25 萬美元。不過，《富爸爸窮爸爸》一書的作者羅伯特清崎卻持有不同的觀點，他認為比特幣可能會回調至6萬美元。目前，價值53.4億美元的比特幣已從交易所撤出，這可能預示著市場即將出現回調或反彈。如果需求持續超過供應，比特幣將在不久的將來突破 10 萬美元。

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin's position as a wealth preservation tool is increasingly consolidated, and its volatility has been lower than that of technology stocks such as Nvidia and AMD. The US Bitcoin ETF currently holds more than 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for 5% of the total supply. Globally, Brazil has proposed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, while El Salvador is exploring the use of volcanic energy for Bitcoin mining. With global liquidity expected to increase by $20 trillion, analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in 2025.

值得一提的是，比特幣作為財富保值工具的地位日益鞏固，其波動性已低於英偉達、AMD等科技股。美國比特幣ETF目前持有超過100萬枚比特幣，佔總供應量的5%。在全球範圍內，巴西提出了戰略性比特幣儲備法案，而薩爾瓦多正在探索利用火山能進行比特幣挖礦。隨著全球流動性預計增加 20 兆美元，分析師預測 2025 年比特幣可能達到 15 萬美元。