贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 Rieder 预测美联储将于 2024 年降息，从而改变投资格局

贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的里克·里德 (Rick Rieder) 预测，尽管通胀仍处于高位，但美联储可能会在 2024 年降息两次。里德相信，由于经济放缓的迹象，美联储可以抑制通胀，但他也承认存在挑战。掉期交易员预计今年降息幅度约为 40 个基点，不到两次 0.25% 的全面降息。贝莱德已降低利率风险敞口，青睐短期投资，但认为存在根据未来经济数据进行调整的潜在窗口。

Fed Cuts: BlackRock's Rick Rieder Predicts Two Interest Rate Reductions in 2024

美联储降息：贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的里克·里德 (Rick Rieder) 预测 2024 年将两次降息

Renowned financial expert Rick Rieder, Director of Global Fixed Income Investments at BlackRock, has stirred the investment landscape with his bold prediction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could enact two interest rate cuts this year. This strategic move is anticipated amidst signs of moderating inflation and a reevaluation of economic expectations.

著名金融专家、贝莱德全球固定收益投资总监里克·里德(Rick Rieder)大胆预测美联储今年可能实施两次降息，搅动了投资格局。这一战略举措是在通胀放缓和重新评估经济预期的迹象下预计的。

Rieder's assertion stems from a comprehensive analysis of recent economic indicators, particularly the recent release of the March consumer price index. Despite the initial market reaction to stronger-than-expected data, Treasury bond yields have since retreated, indicating a market recalibration.

里德的这一说法源于对近期经济指标，特别是近期发布的3月份消费者价格指数的综合分析。尽管市场最初对强于预期的数据做出反应，但国债收益率此后有所回落，表明市场正在重新调整。

Swap traders are currently pricing in approximately 40 basis points of interest rate cuts by year's end, which aligns with Rieder's projection of two 0.25% reductions. However, it's important to note that the Fed's monetary policy decisions will ultimately hinge on the trajectory of inflation and labor market data in the coming months.

掉期交易商目前预计年底前将降息约 40 个基点，这与 Rieder 两次降息 0.25% 的预测一致。然而，值得注意的是，美联储的货币政策决定最终将取决于未来几个月的通胀轨迹和劳动力市场数据。

In response to these evolving market conditions, BlackRock has strategically adjusted its exposure to interest rate risk, preferring short-term investments. Rieder believes that this cautious approach mitigates potential risks while allowing the firm to swiftly seize opportunities for rate-sensitive investments.

为了应对这些不断变化的市场状况，贝莱德战略性地调整了利率风险敞口，转而偏好短期投资。里德认为，这种谨慎的做法可以降低潜在风险，同时使公司能够迅速抓住利率敏感投资的机会。

Rieder acknowledges that the Fed faces a challenging task in striking a balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. However, he remains optimistic that the central bank can navigate this delicate path, citing signs of slowing employment growth.

里德承认，美联储在控制通胀和支持经济增长之间取得平衡面临着一项艰巨的任务。不过，他仍然乐观地认为，央行能够走上这条微妙的道路，理由是就业增长放缓的迹象。

"After seeing some good inflation reports and evidence that employment is slowing down, we can start to extend the deadline," Rieder explained. "The Fed has a narrow window of opportunity to reduce rates without reigniting inflation."

“在看到一些良好的通胀报告和就业放缓的证据后，我们可以开始延长最后期限，”里德解释道。 “美联储在不重燃通胀的情况下降息的机会窗口很窄。”

BlackRock's seasoned investment professionals continually monitor economic data and market developments to optimize their strategies. Rieder's latest assessment of the Fed's monetary policy stance provides investors with valuable insights and reinforces the importance of staying agile in today's dynamic market environment.

贝莱德经验丰富的投资专业人士不断监控经济数据和市场发展，以优化其策略。里德对美联储货币政策立场的最新评估为投资者提供了宝贵的见解，并强调了在当今动态的市场环境中保持敏捷的重要性。

As the Fed deliberates its next move, investors will eagerly await further economic data and BlackRock's expert analysis to guide their investment decisions.

随着美联储审议下一步行动，投资者将热切等待进一步的经济数据和贝莱德的专家分析来指导他们的投资决策。