貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的 Rieder 預測聯準會將於 2024 年降息，改變投資格局

貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的里克·里德 (Rick Rieder) 預測，儘管通膨仍處於高位，但聯準會可能會在 2024 年降息兩次。里德相信，由於經濟放緩的跡象，聯準會可以抑制通膨，但他也承認有挑戰。掉期交易員預計今年降息幅度約為 40 個基點，不到兩次 0.25% 的全面降息。貝萊德已降低利率風險敞口，青睞短期投資，但認為存在根據未來經濟數據進行調整的潛在窗口。

Fed Cuts: BlackRock's Rick Rieder Predicts Two Interest Rate Reductions in 2024

聯準會降息：貝萊德 (BlackRock) 的里克·里德 (Rick Rieder) 預測 2024 年將兩次降息

Renowned financial expert Rick Rieder, Director of Global Fixed Income Investments at BlackRock, has stirred the investment landscape with his bold prediction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could enact two interest rate cuts this year. This strategic move is anticipated amidst signs of moderating inflation and a reevaluation of economic expectations.

著名金融專家、貝萊德全球固定收益投資總監里克·里德(Rick Rieder)大膽預測聯準會今年可能實施兩次降息，攪動了投資格局。這項戰略舉措是在通膨放緩和重新評估經濟預期的跡像下預期的。

Rieder's assertion stems from a comprehensive analysis of recent economic indicators, particularly the recent release of the March consumer price index. Despite the initial market reaction to stronger-than-expected data, Treasury bond yields have since retreated, indicating a market recalibration.

里德的說法源自於對近期經濟指標，特別是近期發布的3月消費者物價指數的綜合分析。儘管市場最初對強於預期的數據做出反應，但國債殖利率此後有所回落，顯示市場正在重新調整。

Swap traders are currently pricing in approximately 40 basis points of interest rate cuts by year's end, which aligns with Rieder's projection of two 0.25% reductions. However, it's important to note that the Fed's monetary policy decisions will ultimately hinge on the trajectory of inflation and labor market data in the coming months.

掉期交易商目前預計年底前將降息約 40 個基點，這與 Rieder 兩次降息 0.25% 的預測一致。然而，值得注意的是，聯準會的貨幣政策決定最終將取決於未來幾個月的通膨軌跡和勞動市場數據。

In response to these evolving market conditions, BlackRock has strategically adjusted its exposure to interest rate risk, preferring short-term investments. Rieder believes that this cautious approach mitigates potential risks while allowing the firm to swiftly seize opportunities for rate-sensitive investments.

為了因應這些不斷變化的市場狀況，貝萊德策略性地調整了利率風險敞口，轉而偏好短期投資。里德認為，這種謹慎的做法可以降低潛在風險，同時使公司能夠迅速抓住利率敏感投資的機會。

Rieder acknowledges that the Fed faces a challenging task in striking a balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. However, he remains optimistic that the central bank can navigate this delicate path, citing signs of slowing employment growth.

里德承認，聯準會在控制通膨和支持經濟成長之間取得平衡面臨著艱鉅的任務。不過，他仍然樂觀地認為，央行能夠走上這條微妙的道路，理由是就業成長放緩的跡象。

"After seeing some good inflation reports and evidence that employment is slowing down, we can start to extend the deadline," Rieder explained. "The Fed has a narrow window of opportunity to reduce rates without reigniting inflation."

「在看到一些良好的通膨報告和就業放緩的證據後，我們可以開始延長最後期限，」里德解釋道。 “聯準會在不重燃通膨的情況下降息的機會窗口很窄。”

BlackRock's seasoned investment professionals continually monitor economic data and market developments to optimize their strategies. Rieder's latest assessment of the Fed's monetary policy stance provides investors with valuable insights and reinforces the importance of staying agile in today's dynamic market environment.

貝萊德經驗豐富的投資專業人士不斷監控經濟數據和市場發展，以優化其策略。里德對聯準會貨幣政策立場的最新評估為投資者提供了寶貴的見解，並強調了在當今動態的市場環境中保持敏捷的重要性。

As the Fed deliberates its next move, investors will eagerly await further economic data and BlackRock's expert analysis to guide their investment decisions.

隨著聯準會審議下一步行動，投資人將熱切等待進一步的經濟數據和貝萊德的專家分析來指導他們的投資決策。