贝莱德认为，即使在经济衰退中，比特币也可以蓬勃发展

在写作时，比特币[BTC]的交易价格为85,387美元，在过去24小时内增长了2.30％。但是，市场情绪仍然分歧。

Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at $85,387 at the time of press, registering a 2.30% increase over the last 24 hours. However, despite this price uptick, cryptocurrency market sentiment seemed largely focused on other pressing issues.

新闻发布时，比特币[BTC]的交易价格为85,387美元，比过去24小时增长了2.30％。但是，尽管价格上涨，但加密货币市场情绪似乎主要集中在其他紧迫问题上。

As reported by CCCoin, Bitcoin’s daily institutional outflows continued, with the total volume dropping by 54%, from 58.6K BTC/day to 26.9K BTC/day.

正如Cccoin报道的那样，比特币的每日机构流出持续，总销量从58.6k BTC/天到26.9k BTC/天下降了54％。

However, on a broader note, Robbie Mitchnick, from behemoth asset manager Blackrock (NYSE:BLK), expressed an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s prospects, even in a potential recessionary scenario.

然而，从广义上讲，庞然大物资产经理贝莱克（NYSE：BLK）的罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）也对比特币的前景表示乐观的看法，即使在潜在的衰退情况下。

According to Mitchnick, who is the Head of Digital Assets at Blackrock, Bitcoin stands to benefit from several key macroeconomic trends that are typically observed during periods of economic downturn.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）是贝莱德（Blackrock）数字资产负责人的米奇尼克（Mitchnick），比特币将受益于几种关键的宏观经济趋势，这些宏观经济趋势通常在经济衰退期间观察到。

These trends include fiscal stimulus, lower interest rates, and monetary easing, all of which contribute to a macroeconomic environment that favors decentralized digital assets.

这些趋势包括财政刺激，较低的利率和货币宽松，所有这些都促成了有利于分散数字资产的宏观经济环境。

In addition to these factors, Mitchnick highlighted the heightened fears of social unrest in the current socio-economic climate. These fears, he said, could drive more investors towards seeking refuge in alternative assets, like Bitcoin, which is often touted for its role as a hedge against inflation and broader market volatility.

除了这些因素外，米奇尼克还强调了当前社会经济气候中对社会动荡的恐惧。他说，这些恐惧可能会推动更多的投资者寻求避难所，例如比特币，这种资产通常因其作为抵制通货膨胀和更广泛市场波动的对冲而吹捧。

As we progress through the second quarter of 2024, the true extent of Bitcoin’s resilience will be put to the ultimate test.

随着2024年第二季度的进展，比特币的弹性的真实程度将受到最终测试。

Will the world’s leading cryptocurrency manage to retain its value and liquidity in the face of macroeconomic headwinds?

面对宏观经济的逆风，世界领先的加密货币是否会设法保持其价值和流动性？

Only time will tell whether Blackrock’s optimistic stance on Bitcoin will pay off in the long run.

从长远来看，只有时间会证明贝莱德对比特币的乐观立场是否会回报。

What did Blackrock say?

贝莱德怎么说？

Earlier this year, reports emerged that Blackrock was planning to launch an iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), marking a significant step for the institutional investment giant in the cryptocurrency market.

今年早些时候，有报道称，贝莱德（Blackrock）正计划推出iShares比特币信托ETF（IBIT），这标志着加密货币市场的机构投资巨头迈出了重要一步。

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently being listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Ishares比特币信托ETF目前正在纽约证券交易所（NYSE）上列出。

As of the 15th of February, Blockr.io data indicated that Blackrock was holding 570,582 BTC in its treasury. Of this total, 22,076 BTC were reportedly added in 2024 alone.

截至2月15日，Blockr.io数据表明，BlackRock在其财政部持有570,582 BTC。据报道，仅在2024年就增加了22,076个BTC。

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $80k on the 10th of March due to premature expectations on the economic outlook.

根据Ambcrypto的分析，由于对经济前景的过早期望，比特币的价格在3月10日下降到8.8亿美元以下。

Key factors that morning included early rate cut speculation, Bitcoin’s evolving role as a strategic reserve, and недостаточное внимание к кризису госдолга США.

早晨的关键因素包括早期税率削减投机，比特币将罗勒（Rolele）作为战略储备的发展以及对美国国家债务危机的关注不足。

These pressures were further compounded by Trump’s stringent tariff plans.

特朗普的严格关税计划进一步加剧了这些压力。

While the short-term market reaction to these developments led to the sharp dip, Blockr.io also highlighted an interesting tidbit. Despite the bear market, Blackrock saw a monthly-high inflow of $218.10 million in March. This finding serves to further reinforce Mitchnick’s thesis.

尽管短期市场对这些发展的反应导致了急剧下降，但Blockr.io也强调了一个有趣的花絮。尽管有熊市，贝莱德（Blackrock）在3月的每月高度流入量为2.181亿美元。这一发现进一步加强了米奇尼克的论文。

The possibility of a U.S. recession has once again come to the fore after the FOMC meeting, where Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a “wait-and-see” approach. Essentially, the possibility of a recession can’t be entirely ruled out just yet.

在FOMC会议之后，美国衰退的可能性再次浮出水面，杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）主席采用了一种“等待”的方法。从本质上讲，衰退的可能性尚未完全排除在外。

Bitcoin’s role in a recession

比特币在经济衰退中的作用

A key bullish signal during a recession is economic slowdown. Weak labor data will dampen aggregate demand, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene with liquidity via interest rate cuts.

经济衰退期间的关键看涨信号是经济放缓。疲软的劳动数据将削弱总需求，促使美联储通过降低利率干预流动性。

This liquidity influx will often support risk assets like Bitcoin in the mid-term.

这种流动性涌入通常会在中期中支持像比特币这样的风险资产。

However, while Blackrock is bullish, a recession will typically play out through a brief cycle of decreasing demand, increasing unemployment, and market corrections. This could put Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe haven to the ultimate test.

但是，尽管贝莱德是看好的，但经济衰退通常会通过短暂的需求减少，增加失业和市场纠正来进行。这可能会使比特币的叙述是最终测试的避风港。

Bitcoin’s 22% decline from its all-time high of $109k could be a sign of a larger market correction, with more volatility to come. This is unless Trump’s economic retest triggers a shift in market conditions.

比特币的历史最高售价为10.9万美元，比特币的下降可能是更大的市场校正的迹象，即将发生更多的波动。除非特朗普的经济重新测试会触发市场状况的转变。

In February, inflation saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, decreasing from 3% in January.

2月，通货膨胀率每月下降了0.2％，比一月份的3％下降了。

This easing inflationary pressure has seen the Fed pause its efforts to hike rates further, although the possibility of more hikes in the latter half of the year remains.

这种宽松的通货膨胀压力使联邦政府停了下来，努力进一步加快税率，尽管在本年度下半年的可能性越来越多。

However, Blackrock’s bullish thesis will likely depend on a more complete market flush-out. This signals that a deeper correction might be needed before a new bull market can truly emerge.

但是，贝莱德的看涨论文可能会取决于更完整的市场。这表明在新的牛市能够真正出现之前，可能需要进行更深入的更正。