貝萊德認為，即使在經濟衰退中，比特幣也可以蓬勃發展

在寫作時，比特幣[BTC]的交易價格為85,387美元，在過去24小時內增長了2.30％。但是，市場情緒仍然分歧。

Bitcoin [BTC] was trading at $85,387 at the time of press, registering a 2.30% increase over the last 24 hours. However, despite this price uptick, cryptocurrency market sentiment seemed largely focused on other pressing issues.

新聞發佈時，比特幣[BTC]的交易價格為85,387美元，比過去24小時增長了2.30％。但是，儘管價格上漲，但加密貨幣市場情緒似乎主要集中在其他緊迫問題上。

As reported by CCCoin, Bitcoin’s daily institutional outflows continued, with the total volume dropping by 54%, from 58.6K BTC/day to 26.9K BTC/day.

正如Cccoin報導的那樣，比特幣的每日機構流出持續，總銷量從58.6k BTC/天到26.9k BTC/天下降了54％。

However, on a broader note, Robbie Mitchnick, from behemoth asset manager Blackrock (NYSE:BLK), expressed an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s prospects, even in a potential recessionary scenario.

然而，從廣義上講，龐然大物資產經理貝萊克（NYSE：BLK）的羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）也對比特幣的前景表示樂觀的看法，即使在潛在的衰退情況下。

According to Mitchnick, who is the Head of Digital Assets at Blackrock, Bitcoin stands to benefit from several key macroeconomic trends that are typically observed during periods of economic downturn.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）是貝萊德（Blackrock）數字資產負責人的米奇尼克（Mitchnick），比特幣將受益於幾種關鍵的宏觀經濟趨勢，這些宏觀經濟趨勢通常在經濟衰退期間觀察到。

These trends include fiscal stimulus, lower interest rates, and monetary easing, all of which contribute to a macroeconomic environment that favors decentralized digital assets.

這些趨勢包括財政刺激，較低的利率和貨幣寬鬆，所有這些都促成了有利於分散數字資產的宏觀經濟環境。

In addition to these factors, Mitchnick highlighted the heightened fears of social unrest in the current socio-economic climate. These fears, he said, could drive more investors towards seeking refuge in alternative assets, like Bitcoin, which is often touted for its role as a hedge against inflation and broader market volatility.

除了這些因素外，米奇尼克還強調了當前社會經濟氣候中對社會動蕩的恐懼。他說，這些恐懼可能會推動更多的投資者尋求避難所，例如比特幣，這種資產通常因其作為抵制通貨膨脹和更廣泛市場波動的對沖而吹捧。

As we progress through the second quarter of 2024, the true extent of Bitcoin’s resilience will be put to the ultimate test.

隨著2024年第二季度的進展，比特幣的彈性的真實程度將受到最終測試。

Will the world’s leading cryptocurrency manage to retain its value and liquidity in the face of macroeconomic headwinds?

面對宏觀經濟的逆風，世界領先的加密貨幣是否會設法保持其價值和流動性？

Only time will tell whether Blackrock’s optimistic stance on Bitcoin will pay off in the long run.

從長遠來看，只有時間會證明貝萊德對比特幣的樂觀立場是否會回報。

What did Blackrock say?

貝萊德怎麼說？

Earlier this year, reports emerged that Blackrock was planning to launch an iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), marking a significant step for the institutional investment giant in the cryptocurrency market.

今年早些時候，有報導稱，貝萊德（Blackrock）正計劃推出iShares比特幣信託ETF（IBIT），這標誌著加密貨幣市場的機構投資巨頭邁出了重要一步。

The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently being listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Ishares比特幣信託ETF目前正在紐約證券交易所（NYSE）上列出。

As of the 15th of February, Blockr.io data indicated that Blackrock was holding 570,582 BTC in its treasury. Of this total, 22,076 BTC were reportedly added in 2024 alone.

截至2月15日，Blockr.io數據表明，BlackRock在其財政部持有570,582 BTC。據報導，僅在2024年就增加了22,076個BTC。

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Bitcoin’s price dropped below $80k on the 10th of March due to premature expectations on the economic outlook.

根據Ambcrypto的分析，由於對經濟前景的過早期望，比特幣的價格在3月10日下降到8.8億美元以下。

Key factors that morning included early rate cut speculation, Bitcoin’s evolving role as a strategic reserve, and недостаточное внимание к кризису госдолга США.

早晨的關鍵因素包括早期稅率削減投機，比特幣作為戰略預訂的作用不斷發展，以及對美國國家債務危機的關注不足。

These pressures were further compounded by Trump’s stringent tariff plans.

特朗普的嚴格關稅計劃進一步加劇了這些壓力。

While the short-term market reaction to these developments led to the sharp dip, Blockr.io also highlighted an interesting tidbit. Despite the bear market, Blackrock saw a monthly-high inflow of $218.10 million in March. This finding serves to further reinforce Mitchnick’s thesis.

儘管短期市場對這些發展的反應導致了急劇下降，但Blockr.io也強調了一個有趣的花絮。儘管有熊市，貝萊德（Blackrock）在3月的每月高度流入量為2.181億美元。這一發現進一步加強了米奇尼克的論文。

The possibility of a U.S. recession has once again come to the fore after the FOMC meeting, where Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a “wait-and-see” approach. Essentially, the possibility of a recession can’t be entirely ruled out just yet.

在FOMC會議之後，美國衰退的可能性再次浮出水面，杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）主席採用了一種“等待”的方法。從本質上講，衰退的可能性尚未完全排除在外。

Bitcoin’s role in a recession

比特幣在經濟衰退中的作用

A key bullish signal during a recession is economic slowdown. Weak labor data will dampen aggregate demand, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene with liquidity via interest rate cuts.

經濟衰退期間的關鍵看漲信號是經濟放緩。疲軟的勞動數據將削弱總需求，促使美聯儲通過降低利率干預流動性。

This liquidity influx will often support risk assets like Bitcoin in the mid-term.

這種流動性湧入通常會在中期中支持像比特幣這樣的風險資產。

However, while Blackrock is bullish, a recession will typically play out through a brief cycle of decreasing demand, increasing unemployment, and market corrections. This could put Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe haven to the ultimate test.

但是，儘管貝萊德是看好的，但經濟衰退通常會通過短暫的需求減少，增加失業和市場糾正來進行。這可能會使比特幣的敘述是最終測試的避風港。

Bitcoin’s 22% decline from its all-time high of $109k could be a sign of a larger market correction, with more volatility to come. This is unless Trump’s economic retest triggers a shift in market conditions.

比特幣的歷史最高售價為10.9萬美元，比特幣的下降可能是更大的市場校正的跡象，即將發生更多的波動。除非特朗普的經濟重新測試會觸發市場狀況的轉變。

In February, inflation saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, decreasing from 3% in January.

2月，通貨膨脹率每月下降了0.2％，比一月份的3％下降了。

This easing inflationary pressure has seen the Fed pause its efforts to hike rates further, although the possibility of more hikes in the latter half of the year remains.

這種寬鬆的通貨膨脹壓力使聯邦政府停了下來，努力進一步加快稅率，儘管在本年度下半年的可能性越來越多。

However, Blackrock’s bullish thesis will likely depend on a more complete market flush-out. This signals that a deeper correction might be needed before a new bull market can truly emerge.

但是，貝萊德的看漲論文可能會取決於更完整的市場。這表明在新的牛市能夠真正出現之前，可能需要進行更深入的更正。