Bitwise预测XRP市值的两个急剧分歧

他们的分析于2025年3月26日发布，表明XRP到2030年可能会攀升至2.29万亿美元的市值，这使Microsoft目前的2.8万亿美元估值或跌幅至仅为13美分。

In a compelling forecast, crypto asset management firm Bitwise projected two sharply divergent futures for XRP and its market capitalization.

在一个令人信服的预测中，加密资产管理公司的位预测，XRP及其市值的两个急剧分歧。

Their analysis, released on March 26, 2025, suggests that XRP could either rise to an astounding $2.9 trillion market capitalization by 2030—surpassing Microsoft's current valuation of $2.8 trillion—or tumble to a mere 13 cents per token, effectively fading into obscurity.

他们于2025年3月26日发布的分析表明，到2030年，XRP可能会提高到令人震惊的2.9万亿美元市值，这使微软目前的估值达到了2.8万亿美元，或者跌至每位令牌仅13美分，有效地淡出了愚蠢的。

As of the forecast date, the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.5 trillion, with XRP ranking fourth, holding a market cap of $128.9 billion and a price of $2.21 per token.

截至预测日期，加密货币市场约为2.5万亿美元，XRP排名第四，市值为1289亿美元，价格为2.21美元。

However, Bitwise's forecast, part of its broader outlook on the crypto market, focuses on XRP's unique capacity to claim a major role in the rapidly evolving realms of tokenization and digital payments.

但是，Bitwise的预测是其在加密市场上更广泛的前景的一部分，重点是XRP在快速发展的令牌化和数字支付领域中扮演重要角色的独特能力。

"We see a 70% probability that crypto assets will continue to gain relevance in the next five to seven years, setting the stage for a 'max scenario' in our analysis," Bitwise stated.

Bitwise说：“我们看到，加密资产将在未来五到七年内继续获得相关性，在我们的分析中为'最大方案'奠定了阶段的概率。”

This optimistic scenario assumes XRP manages to secure 1% to 2% of the global tokenization market, which is projected to reach $10.9 trillion by 2030.

这种乐观的场景假设XRP设法确保了全球令牌化市场的1％至2％，该市场预计到2030年将达到10.9万亿美元。

With tokenization largely untapped, Bitwise envisions a future where a significant portion of the capital markets, private equity, hedge funds, and other asset classes are included in tokenized form.

随着令牌化在很大程度上尚未开发的情况下，位设想了一个未来，其中大部分资本市场，私募股权，对冲基金和其他资产类别都包含在令牌化形式中。

"This scenario also anticipates an annualized return of 46% for XRP, a rate comparable to the historical performance of the best-performing U.S. equities over the past century," Bitwise added.

Bitwise补充说：“这种情况还预计XRP的年化回报率为46％，这是与过去一个世纪表现最佳的美国股票的历史表现相当的速度。”

The firm's projection predicts XRP's price climbing to $4.48 by 2025, $9.60 by 2027, and $29.32 by 2030.

该公司的预测预测，到2025年，XRP的价格将攀升至4.48美元，到2027年为9.60美元，到2030年为29.32美元。

Moreover, Bitwise assumes that XRP's market cap relative to Bitcoin's will increase from 11% to 13.81%, and that Bitcoin will be trading at $1 million per token by 2030.

此外，Bitwise假设XRP相对于比特币的市值将从11％增加到13.81％，而该比特币将在2030年以每种信用额为100万美元的价格交易。

A High-Flying Max Scenario

高空的最大场景

To reach such a high market cap, Bitwise predicts that XRP will need to shrink its outstanding supply through transaction fees and token burns, ultimately leading to a total supply of 966 million tokens by 2030.

为了达到如此高的市值，Bitwise预测，XRP将需要通过交易费用和代币烧伤来缩小其未偿还的供应，最终导致到2030年总供应量为9.66亿个代币。

This contrasts with the current supply of 1.066 billion XRP tokens.

这与目前10.6亿XRP令牌的供应形成对比。

In contrast, a "bear scenario" sees XRP slipping to 13 cents by 2030, a 94% decline from today's price, and shrink its market cap to $1.5 billion—nearly rendering it irrelevant.

相比之下，“熊情景”到2030年的XRP下跌至13美分，比今天的价格下降了94％，并将其市值缩小到15亿美元，几乎无关紧要。

This scenario unfolds if XRP fails to gain traction among institutions, who instead favor stablecoins and rival blockchains.

如果XRP未能在机构之间获得牵引力，那么这种情况就会展现出来，而机构偏爱Stablecoins和竞争对手的区块链。

The pessimistic outlook predicts a negative annual return of 59%, seeing XRP slip to $1.07 by 2026 and continue sliding.

悲观的前景预测，每年的负数为59％，到2026年的XRP滑移至1.07美元，并继续滑动。

This prediction is based on the cryptocurrency's historical volatility of 147%, which Bitwise believes will continue due to the controversial nature of centralized control and its reliance on banking institutions for adoption.

该预测基于加密货币的历史波动为147％，由于集中控制的有争议的性质及其对收养银行机构的依赖，Bitwise将继续进行。

A Drag on Price

价格拖累

This factor, along with the potential delays in U.S. regulatory clarity, could put a drag on XRP's price performance.

这一因素以及美国监管明确的潜在延迟可能会阻碍XRP的价格绩效。

As of March 27, 2025, XRP is trading at $2.21, down 70% from its all-time high of $3.3963, which was reached in January 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，截至2025年3月27日，XRP的交易价格为2.21美元，比其历史最高高点的3.3963美元下降了70％，该XRP于2025年1月达到了3.3963美元。

In March 2025, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, potentially concluding a years-long dispute that began in December 2020.

2025年3月，Ripple撤回了对美国证券交易委员会的交叉竞争，有可能得出结论，该纠纷始于2020年12月。

However, despite the legal victory, there was no noticeable surge in XRP's price following the news.

但是，尽管取得了合法的胜利，但消息后XRP的价格却没有明显的飙升。

Meanwhile, Bitwise filed for an XRP ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February.

同时，Bitwise于2月向美国证券交易委员会申请了XRP ETF。

Analyst Nate Geraci told TokenInsight that he anticipates BlackRock and Fidelity to follow suit soon.

分析师Nate Geraci告诉TokeninSight，他预计BlackRock和Fidelity会很快效仿。

An XRP ETF could open the door for institutional cash to flow into the world’s seventh-largest cryptocurrency. However, even with an ETF, there's no guarantee of institutional interest.

XRP ETF可以为机构现金打开大门，以流入世界第七大加密货币。但是，即使有ETF，也无法保证机构利益。

Another factor to consider is Ripple’s global push. The firm is working with 20 countries on their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), according to Bitwise.

要考虑的另一个因素是Ripple的全球推动力。根据Bitwise的说法，该公司正在与20个国家 /地区的中央银行数字货币（CBDC）合作。

If successful, this could tie XRP to the XRP Ledger, ultimately boosting demand for the cryptocurrency. But again, there’s competition, this time from stablecoins and other blockchains.

如果成功的话，这可能将XRP与XRP Ledger联系起来，最终提高对加密货币的需求。但是，这次是竞争，这次是来自Stablecoins和其他区块链。