Bitwise預測XRP市值的兩個急劇分歧

他們的分析於2025年3月26日發布，表明XRP到2030年可能會攀升至2.29萬億美元的市值，這使Microsoft目前的2.8萬億美元估值或跌幅至僅為13美分。

In a compelling forecast, crypto asset management firm Bitwise projected two sharply divergent futures for XRP and its market capitalization.

在一個令人信服的預測中，加密資產管理公司的位預測，XRP及其市值的兩個急劇分歧。

Their analysis, released on March 26, 2025, suggests that XRP could either rise to an astounding $2.9 trillion market capitalization by 2030—surpassing Microsoft's current valuation of $2.8 trillion—or tumble to a mere 13 cents per token, effectively fading into obscurity.

他們於2025年3月26日發布的分析表明，到2030年，XRP可能會提高到令人震驚的2.9萬億美元市值，這使微軟目前的估值達到了2.8萬億美元，或者跌至每位令牌僅13美分，有效地淡出了愚蠢的。

As of the forecast date, the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.5 trillion, with XRP ranking fourth, holding a market cap of $128.9 billion and a price of $2.21 per token.

截至預測日期，加密貨幣市場約為2.5萬億美元，XRP排名第四，市值為1289億美元，價格為2.21美元。

However, Bitwise's forecast, part of its broader outlook on the crypto market, focuses on XRP's unique capacity to claim a major role in the rapidly evolving realms of tokenization and digital payments.

但是，Bitwise的預測是其在加密市場上更廣泛的前景的一部分，重點是XRP在快速發展的令牌化和數字支付領域中扮演重要角色的獨特能力。

"We see a 70% probability that crypto assets will continue to gain relevance in the next five to seven years, setting the stage for a 'max scenario' in our analysis," Bitwise stated.

Bitwise說：“我們看到，加密資產將在未來五到七年內繼續獲得相關性，在我們的分析中為'最大方案'奠定了階段的概率。”

This optimistic scenario assumes XRP manages to secure 1% to 2% of the global tokenization market, which is projected to reach $10.9 trillion by 2030.

這種樂觀的場景假設XRP設法確保了全球令牌化市場的1％至2％，該市場預計到2030年將達到10.9萬億美元。

With tokenization largely untapped, Bitwise envisions a future where a significant portion of the capital markets, private equity, hedge funds, and other asset classes are included in tokenized form.

隨著令牌化在很大程度上尚未開發的情況下，位設想了一個未來，其中大部分資本市場，私募股權，對沖基金和其他資產類別都包含在令牌化形式中。

"This scenario also anticipates an annualized return of 46% for XRP, a rate comparable to the historical performance of the best-performing U.S. equities over the past century," Bitwise added.

Bitwise補充說：“這種情況還預計XRP的年化回報率為46％，這是與過去一個世紀表現最佳的美國股票的歷史表現相當的速度。”

The firm's projection predicts XRP's price climbing to $4.48 by 2025, $9.60 by 2027, and $29.32 by 2030.

該公司的預測預測，到2025年，XRP的價格將攀升至4.48美元，到2027年為9.60美元，到2030年為29.32美元。

Moreover, Bitwise assumes that XRP's market cap relative to Bitcoin's will increase from 11% to 13.81%, and that Bitcoin will be trading at $1 million per token by 2030.

此外，Bitwise假設XRP相對於比特幣的市值將從11％增加到13.81％，而該比特幣將在2030年以每種信用額為100萬美元的價格交易。

A High-Flying Max Scenario

高空的最大場景

To reach such a high market cap, Bitwise predicts that XRP will need to shrink its outstanding supply through transaction fees and token burns, ultimately leading to a total supply of 966 million tokens by 2030.

為了達到如此高的市值，Bitwise預測，XRP將需要通過交易費用和代幣燒傷來縮小其未償還的供應，最終導致到2030年總供應量為9.66億個代幣。

This contrasts with the current supply of 1.066 billion XRP tokens.

這與目前10.6億XRP令牌的供應形成對比。

In contrast, a "bear scenario" sees XRP slipping to 13 cents by 2030, a 94% decline from today's price, and shrink its market cap to $1.5 billion—nearly rendering it irrelevant.

相比之下，“熊情景”到2030年的XRP下跌至13美分，比今天的價格下降了94％，並將其市值縮小到15億美元，幾乎無關緊要。

This scenario unfolds if XRP fails to gain traction among institutions, who instead favor stablecoins and rival blockchains.

如果XRP未能在機構之間獲得牽引力，那麼這種情況就會展現出來，而機構偏愛Stablecoins和競爭對手的區塊鏈。

The pessimistic outlook predicts a negative annual return of 59%, seeing XRP slip to $1.07 by 2026 and continue sliding.

悲觀的前景預測，每年的負數為59％，到2026年的XRP滑移至1.07美元，並繼續滑動。

This prediction is based on the cryptocurrency's historical volatility of 147%, which Bitwise believes will continue due to the controversial nature of centralized control and its reliance on banking institutions for adoption.

該預測基於加密貨幣的歷史波動為147％，由於集中控制的有爭議的性質及其對收養銀行機構的依賴，Bitwise將繼續進行。

A Drag on Price

價格拖累

This factor, along with the potential delays in U.S. regulatory clarity, could put a drag on XRP's price performance.

這一因素以及美國監管明確的潛在延遲可能會阻礙XRP的價格績效。

As of March 27, 2025, XRP is trading at $2.21, down 70% from its all-time high of $3.3963, which was reached in January 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

根據CoinMarketCap的數據，截至2025年3月27日，XRP的交易價格為2.21美元，比其歷史最高高點的3.3963美元下降了70％，該XRP於2025年1月達到了3.3963美元。

In March 2025, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, potentially concluding a years-long dispute that began in December 2020.

2025年3月，Ripple撤回了對美國證券交易委員會的交叉競爭，有可能得出結論，該糾紛始於2020年12月。

However, despite the legal victory, there was no noticeable surge in XRP's price following the news.

但是，儘管取得了合法的勝利，但消息後XRP的價格卻沒有明顯的飆升。

Meanwhile, Bitwise filed for an XRP ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February.

同時，Bitwise於2月向美國證券交易委員會申請了XRP ETF。

Analyst Nate Geraci told TokenInsight that he anticipates BlackRock and Fidelity to follow suit soon.

分析師Nate Geraci告訴TokeninSight，他預計BlackRock和Fidelity會很快效仿。

An XRP ETF could open the door for institutional cash to flow into the world’s seventh-largest cryptocurrency. However, even with an ETF, there's no guarantee of institutional interest.

XRP ETF可以為機構現金打開大門，以流入世界第七大加密貨幣。但是，即使有ETF，也無法保證機構利益。

Another factor to consider is Ripple’s global push. The firm is working with 20 countries on their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), according to Bitwise.

要考慮的另一個因素是Ripple的全球推動力。根據Bitwise的說法，該公司正在與20個國家 /地區的中央銀行數字貨幣（CBDC）合作。

If successful, this could tie XRP to the XRP Ledger, ultimately boosting demand for the cryptocurrency. But again, there’s competition, this time from stablecoins and other blockchains.

如果成功的話，這可能將XRP與XRP Ledger聯繫起來，最終提高對加密貨幣的需求。但是，這次是競爭，這次是來自Stablecoins和其他區塊鏈。