Bitwise Predicts Two Sharply Divergent Futures for XRP Market Cap

Released on March 26, 2025, their analysis suggested XRP could climb to $2.9 trillion market capitalization by 2030—eclipsing Microsoft's current $2.8 trillion valuation—or tumble to a mere 13 cents per token

In a compelling forecast, crypto asset management firm Bitwise projected two sharply divergent futures for XRP and its market capitalization.

Their analysis, released on March 26, 2025, suggests that XRP could either rise to an astounding $2.9 trillion market capitalization by 2030—surpassing Microsoft's current valuation of $2.8 trillion—or tumble to a mere 13 cents per token, effectively fading into obscurity.

As of the forecast date, the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.5 trillion, with XRP ranking fourth, holding a market cap of $128.9 billion and a price of $2.21 per token.

However, Bitwise's forecast, part of its broader outlook on the crypto market, focuses on XRP's unique capacity to claim a major role in the rapidly evolving realms of tokenization and digital payments.

"We see a 70% probability that crypto assets will continue to gain relevance in the next five to seven years, setting the stage for a 'max scenario' in our analysis," Bitwise stated.

This optimistic scenario assumes XRP manages to secure 1% to 2% of the global tokenization market, which is projected to reach $10.9 trillion by 2030.

With tokenization largely untapped, Bitwise envisions a future where a significant portion of the capital markets, private equity, hedge funds, and other asset classes are included in tokenized form.

"This scenario also anticipates an annualized return of 46% for XRP, a rate comparable to the historical performance of the best-performing U.S. equities over the past century," Bitwise added.

The firm's projection predicts XRP's price climbing to $4.48 by 2025, $9.60 by 2027, and $29.32 by 2030.

Moreover, Bitwise assumes that XRP's market cap relative to Bitcoin's will increase from 11% to 13.81%, and that Bitcoin will be trading at $1 million per token by 2030.

A High-Flying Max Scenario

To reach such a high market cap, Bitwise predicts that XRP will need to shrink its outstanding supply through transaction fees and token burns, ultimately leading to a total supply of 966 million tokens by 2030.

This contrasts with the current supply of 1.066 billion XRP tokens.

In contrast, a "bear scenario" sees XRP slipping to 13 cents by 2030, a 94% decline from today's price, and shrink its market cap to $1.5 billion—nearly rendering it irrelevant.

This scenario unfolds if XRP fails to gain traction among institutions, who instead favor stablecoins and rival blockchains.

The pessimistic outlook predicts a negative annual return of 59%, seeing XRP slip to $1.07 by 2026 and continue sliding.

This prediction is based on the cryptocurrency's historical volatility of 147%, which Bitwise believes will continue due to the controversial nature of centralized control and its reliance on banking institutions for adoption.

A Drag on Price

This factor, along with the potential delays in U.S. regulatory clarity, could put a drag on XRP's price performance.

As of March 27, 2025, XRP is trading at $2.21, down 70% from its all-time high of $3.3963, which was reached in January 2025, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

In March 2025, Ripple withdrew its cross-appeal against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, potentially concluding a years-long dispute that began in December 2020.

However, despite the legal victory, there was no noticeable surge in XRP's price following the news.

Meanwhile, Bitwise filed for an XRP ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February.

Analyst Nate Geraci told TokenInsight that he anticipates BlackRock and Fidelity to follow suit soon.

An XRP ETF could open the door for institutional cash to flow into the world’s seventh-largest cryptocurrency. However, even with an ETF, there's no guarantee of institutional interest.

Another factor to consider is Ripple’s global push. The firm is working with 20 countries on their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), according to Bitwise.

If successful, this could tie XRP to the XRP Ledger, ultimately boosting demand for the cryptocurrency. But again, there’s competition, this time from stablecoins and other blockchains.