BitMEX 联合创始人警告加密货币市场减半后价格下跌

在即将到来的比特币减半之后，BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 预测加密货币市场将出现下滑。海耶斯表示，减半加上美联储和财政部的行动，将在未来几周内造成价格低迷。尽管预期减半通常会导致价格上涨，但海耶斯警告不要做出这种假设。

Crypto Market Braced for Post-Halving Price Slump, Warns BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 警告称，加密货币市场将迎来减半后的价格暴跌

The upcoming Bitcoin halving, a scheduled event that halves the block reward for Bitcoin miners, is expected to trigger a prolonged downturn in the cryptocurrency market, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of prominent crypto exchange BitMEX. In an extensive blog post published on April 8th, Hayes presented a compelling case for a significant price decline in the weeks following the halving.

著名加密货币交易所 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，即将到来的比特币减半是一项预定事件，将比特币矿工的区块奖励减半，预计将引发加密货币市场的长期低迷。在 4 月 8 日发表的一篇内容广泛的博客文章中，海耶斯提出了一个令人信服的理由，说明减半后几周内价格会大幅下​​跌。

Hayes's analysis hinges on the interplay between the halving event and the macro-economic policies currently implemented by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. While the halving is typically seen as a catalyst for price appreciation in the medium term, Hayes argues that the immediate impact could be quite different.

海斯的分析取决于减半事件与美联储和美国财政部目前实施的宏观经济政策之间的相互作用。虽然减半通常被视为中期价格升值的催化剂，但海耶斯认为，直接影响可能截然不同。

"When everyone is looking one way, the opposite often happens," Hayes writes, challenging the prevalent optimism surrounding the halving. He highlights the fact that the halving coincides with a period of tightening dollar liquidity, a situation exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) measures and the Treasury's decision to leave its General Account untapped.

海耶斯写道：“当每个人都朝一个方向看时，往往会发生相反的情况。”他挑战了围绕减半的普遍乐观情绪。他强调，减半恰逢美元流动性收紧时期，美联储的量化紧缩（QT）措施和财政部决定不动用普通账户，加剧了这种情况。

Hayes identifies the latter half of April as a particularly perilous period for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. This is due to a combination of factors, including U.S. tax payments reducing liquidity, the Federal Reserve's initiation of QT, and the aforementioned inaction of the Treasury.

海耶斯认为 4 月下半月对于包括加密货币在内的风险资产来说是一个特别危险的时期。这是多种因素造成的，包括美国纳税减少流动性、美联储启动量化宽松以及上述财政部的不作为。

However, Hayes predicts a shift in monetary policy after the Federal Reserve's meeting on May 1st. He anticipates a reduction in the pace of QT and the release of approximately $1 trillion of liquidity into the system from the Treasury's General Account. This, he believes, will provide a significant boost to the markets.

不过，海耶斯预测美联储 5 月 1 日会议后货币政策将发生转变。他预计 QT 的步伐将会放缓，并会从财政部普通账户向系统释放约 1 万亿美元的流动性。他相信，这将为市场带来重大推动力。

Despite his bearish prognosis for the immediate post-halving period, Hayes acknowledges the possibility of the market defying his expectations and continuing its upward trajectory. He emphasizes his long positions in crypto assets, expressing a willingness to be proven wrong if the market remains bullish.

尽管海耶斯对减半后的短期预测持悲观态度，但他承认市场有可能违背他的预期并继续其上行轨迹。他强调了自己在加密资产中的多头头寸，并表示如果市场仍然看涨，他愿意被证明是错误的。

In conclusion, Arthur Hayes's analysis provides a sobering outlook for the cryptocurrency market following the Bitcoin halving. While the halving event has historically been associated with price increases, Hayes argues that the current macroeconomic environment and the actions of the Federal Reserve and Treasury may lead to a prolonged period of depressed prices. Only time will tell whether Hayes's predictions hold true or if the market surprises once again.

总之，Arthur Hayes 的分析为比特币减半后的加密货币市场提供了令人警醒的前景。虽然减半事件历来与价格上涨有关，但海耶斯认为，当前的宏观经济环境以及美联储和财政部的行动可能会导致价格长期低迷。只有时间才能证明海耶斯的预测是否正确，或者市场是否再次感到意外。