BitMEX 聯合創辦人警告加密貨幣市場減半後價格下跌

在即將到來的比特幣減半之後，BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 預測加密貨幣市場將出現下滑。海耶斯表示，減半加上聯準會和財政部的行動，將在未來幾週內造成價格低迷。儘管預期減半通常會導致價格上漲，但海耶斯警告不要做出這種假設。

Crypto Market Braced for Post-Halving Price Slump, Warns BitMEX Co-Founder Arthur Hayes

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 警告稱，加密貨幣市場將迎來減半後的價格暴跌

The upcoming Bitcoin halving, a scheduled event that halves the block reward for Bitcoin miners, is expected to trigger a prolonged downturn in the cryptocurrency market, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of prominent crypto exchange BitMEX. In an extensive blog post published on April 8th, Hayes presented a compelling case for a significant price decline in the weeks following the halving.

著名加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，即將到來的比特幣減半是一項預定事件，將比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵減半，預計將引發加密貨幣市場的長期低迷。在 4 月 8 日發表的一篇內容廣泛的部落格文章中，海耶斯提出了一個令人信服的理由，說明減半後幾週內價格會大幅下跌。

Hayes's analysis hinges on the interplay between the halving event and the macro-economic policies currently implemented by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. While the halving is typically seen as a catalyst for price appreciation in the medium term, Hayes argues that the immediate impact could be quite different.

海斯的分析取決於減半事件與聯準會和美國財政部目前實施的宏觀經濟政策之間的相互作用。雖然減半通常被視為中期價格升值的催化劑，但海耶斯認為，直接影響可能截然不同。

"When everyone is looking one way, the opposite often happens," Hayes writes, challenging the prevalent optimism surrounding the halving. He highlights the fact that the halving coincides with a period of tightening dollar liquidity, a situation exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) measures and the Treasury's decision to leave its General Account untapped.

海耶斯寫道：「當每個人都朝一個方向看時，往往會發生相反的情況。」他挑戰了圍繞減半的普遍樂觀情緒。他強調，減半恰逢美元流動性收緊時期，聯準會的量化緊縮（QT）措施和財政部決定不動用普通帳戶，加劇了這種情況。

Hayes identifies the latter half of April as a particularly perilous period for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. This is due to a combination of factors, including U.S. tax payments reducing liquidity, the Federal Reserve's initiation of QT, and the aforementioned inaction of the Treasury.

海耶斯認為 4 月下半月對於包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產來說是一個特別危險的時期。這是多種因素造成的，包括美國納稅減少流動性、聯準會啟動量化寬鬆以及上述財政部的不作為。

However, Hayes predicts a shift in monetary policy after the Federal Reserve's meeting on May 1st. He anticipates a reduction in the pace of QT and the release of approximately $1 trillion of liquidity into the system from the Treasury's General Account. This, he believes, will provide a significant boost to the markets.

不過，海耶斯預測聯準會 5 月 1 日會議後貨幣政策將會轉變。他預計 QT 的步伐將會放緩，並將從財政部普通帳戶向系統釋放約 1 兆美元的流動性。他相信，這將為市場帶來重大推動力。

Despite his bearish prognosis for the immediate post-halving period, Hayes acknowledges the possibility of the market defying his expectations and continuing its upward trajectory. He emphasizes his long positions in crypto assets, expressing a willingness to be proven wrong if the market remains bullish.

儘管海耶斯對減半後的短期預測持悲觀態度，但他承認市場有可能違背他的預期並繼續其上行軌跡。他強調了自己在加密資產中的多頭頭寸，並表示如果市場仍然看漲，他願意被證明是錯的。

In conclusion, Arthur Hayes's analysis provides a sobering outlook for the cryptocurrency market following the Bitcoin halving. While the halving event has historically been associated with price increases, Hayes argues that the current macroeconomic environment and the actions of the Federal Reserve and Treasury may lead to a prolonged period of depressed prices. Only time will tell whether Hayes's predictions hold true or if the market surprises once again.

總之，Arthur Hayes 的分析為比特幣減半後的加密貨幣市場提供了令人警醒的前景。雖然減半事件歷來與價格上漲有關，但海耶斯認為，當前的宏觀經濟環境以及聯準會和財政部的行動可能會導致價格長期低迷。只有時間才能證明海耶斯的預測是否正確，或者市場是否再次感到驚訝。