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链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 的创始人 Ki Young Ju 报告了比特币鲸鱼在获利回吐方面的异常行为。
Bitcoin whales, known for their substantial influence on the cryptocurrency market, are reportedly behaving atypically with regard to profit-taking, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
据链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 称,以其对加密货币市场的巨大影响力而闻名的比特币鲸鱼在获利回吐方面的行为异常。
As highlighted by Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, in a recent post on X, if the present Bitcoin bull cycle were to conclude now, it would mark the lowest level of profit-taking by Bitcoin whales across all market cycles. This assertion was met with a differing perspective from crypto analyst Ali Martinez, who pointed out that whales have been distributing their Bitcoin across multiple addresses, leading to a reduction in the number of addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC.
正如 CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 在 X 最近的一篇文章中所强调的那样,如果当前的比特币牛市周期现在结束,这将标志着比特币鲸鱼在所有市场周期中获利了结的最低水平。这一说法得到了加密货币分析师阿里·马丁内斯(Ali Martinez)的不同看法,他指出,鲸鱼一直在将比特币分配到多个地址,导致持有 1,000 到 10,000 BTC 的地址数量减少。
However, Ju maintained that the overall return rate remains the lowest when compared to previous cycles, irrespective of how whales have maneuvered their assets. He further suggested that the whales currently selling are likely new entrants with weaker hands, as they are offloading their holdings with minimal profit.
然而,Ju 坚持认为,与之前的周期相比,总体回报率仍然是最低的,无论鲸鱼如何操纵其资产。他进一步表示,目前出售的鲸鱼很可能是新进入者,手头较弱,因为他们以微乎其微的利润出售所持股份。
According to Ju, examining macro-level aggregated data, such as historical realized profit, is crucial to understanding broader market trends, rather than focusing solely on individual transactions. This perspective aligns with the observation that the majority of Bitcoin whales are holding back on profit-taking, expecting further bullish movements.
Ju表示,检查宏观层面的汇总数据(例如历史已实现利润)对于了解更广泛的市场趋势至关重要,而不是仅仅关注个别交易。这一观点与大多数比特币鲸鱼都在抑制获利了结,并期待进一步看涨的观察结果一致。
Ju also noted that Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to its realized cap indicates that the cryptocurrency is still within a bull cycle. Instead of cashing out, these whales are accumulating more Bitcoin in anticipation of the next upward surge. Supporting this notion, CryptoQuant recently reported the largest outflows from exchanges since November 2022, signifying substantial market activity. Additionally, Ju observed an unprecedented rate of new whale accumulation.
Ju还指出,比特币的市值相对于其已实现的上限表明该加密货币仍处于牛市周期内。这些鲸鱼没有兑现,而是积累了更多的比特币,以期待下一次的上涨。 CryptoQuant 最近报告称,交易所出现自 2022 年 11 月以来最大的资金流出,这也支持了这一观点,这表明市场活动活跃。此外,朱观察到新鲸鱼的积累速度前所未有。
As for predictions on when the market cycle might peak, opinions vary among crypto analysts. Rekt Capital anticipates a market top between mid-September and mid-October 2025, while a recent CoinMarketCap report suggests a potential peak between mid-May and mid-June 2025. CoinMarketCap based this projection on the fact that Bitcoin is currently ahead of historical trends, having reached a new all-time high even before the Halving event. This acceleration, estimated to be around 100 days faster than past cycles, indicates that the next peak may arrive sooner than previously expected.
至于市场周期何时达到顶峰的预测,加密货币分析师的观点各不相同。 Rekt Capital 预计市场见顶将在 2025 年 9 月中旬至 10 月中旬之间,而最近的 CoinMarketCap 报告则表明市场见顶可能在 2025 年 5 月中旬至 6 月中旬之间。CoinMarketCap 的这一预测基于比特币目前领先于历史趋势的事实,甚至在减半事件之前就达到了历史新高。这种加速预计比过去的周期快 100 天左右,表明下一个峰值可能比之前预期的更早到来。
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