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Kai 认为,到 2025 年,memecoin 的表现将优于市场,这表明拥有“精选的 memecoin 篮子”可以让投资者超越 99% 的市场参与者。
Analysis: Breaking Down the Allure of Memecoins in 2025
分析:2025 年打破 Memecoin 的吸引力
Recent weeks have seen a notable surge in interest around memecoins, largely driven by a new narrative positing that memecoins will spearhead the upcoming crypto bull run. This narrative has sparked a heated discussion online.
最近几周,人们对模因币的兴趣显着激增,这主要是由于一种新的叙事假设模因币将引领即将到来的加密货币牛市。此说法在网上引发热议。
In this context, Kai (@Kaiwen0x), a crypto analyst, released an article that has garnered widespread attention. The analysis delves into the ongoing appeal of memecoins as a viable investment choice, especially in the upcoming bull run from 2025. Kai argues that memecoins are set to outstrip the market by 2025.
在此背景下,加密货币分析师Kai(@Kaiwen0x)发布了一篇文章,引起广泛关注。该分析深入探讨了 memecoin 作为一种可行的投资选择的持续吸引力,尤其是在 2025 年即将到来的牛市中。Kai 认为,memecoin 到 2025 年将超越市场。
According to the analyst, owning a “curated basket of memecoins” could enable investors to out-perform 99% of the market participants. Kai’s analysis hinges on the idea that, “Outside of Bitcoin and stablecoins, memecoin is the only category that has found a clear product-market fit. They combine the best features of an ICO (capital formation) and an NFT (community building) in delivering a killer product: global, permissionless speculation.”
这位分析师表示,拥有“精选的模因币篮子”可以使投资者的表现优于 99% 的市场参与者。 Kai 的分析基于这样的想法:“除了比特币和稳定币之外,memecoin 是唯一找到了明确的产品市场契合度的类别。它们结合了 ICO(资本形成)和 NFT(社区建设)的最佳功能,提供了杀手级产品:全球性、无需许可的投机。”
Kai emphasizes that traditional crypto projects are often seen juggling both product development and token management, while memecoins focus solely on the token itself. “Memecoins removed the product and made the token its entire business, with the value of the token deriving from the attention generated by its community,” the analysis noted.
Kai 强调,传统的加密项目经常兼顾产品开发和代币管理,而模因币则只关注代币本身。分析指出:“Memecoins 删除了该产品,并将代币作为其全部业务,代币的价值源自其社区产生的关注。”
Highlighting data from crypto analyst @MustStopMurad, Kai noted that in 2024, 16 of the top 20 tokens within the top 300 that outperformed Bitcoin were memecoins.
Kai 重点介绍了加密货币分析师 @MustStopMurad 的数据,他指出,2024 年,表现优于比特币的前 300 名代币中,有 16 名是模因币。
Crucial External Factors For Memecoin Surge
Memecoin 激增的关键外部因素
Kai identifies two main external factors that are crucial for a memecoin surge. First, the analysis notes that macro liquidity and interest rates need to be favorable for the entire market.
Kai 指出了对于模因币激增至关重要的两个主要外部因素。首先,分析指出,宏观流动性和利率需要有利于整个市场。
“The macro setup points to higher liquidity and lower interest rates in the next 12 months. Memecoins act as levered beta on Bitcoin, allowing you to capture maximum upside in a risk-on environment,” the analysis noted.
“宏观环境表明未来 12 个月流动性更高,利率更低。 Memecoin 充当比特币的杠杆测试版,让您能够在风险环境中获得最大的上涨空间,”分析指出。
Second, the analysis mentions financial nihilism, a term popularized by Ikigai Investment CEO Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling). This theory suggests that a rise in financial nihilism and the “YOLO” mindset is drawing more participants into speculative markets.
其次,分析提到了金融虚无主义,这是由 Ikigai Investment 首席执行官 Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling) 推广的术语。该理论表明,金融虚无主义和“YOLO”心态的抬头正在吸引更多参与者进入投机市场。
“Financial nihilism is a key driver of memecoin demand. People are piling into anything that can generate a return in this market, and memecoins are the most levered beta on the market,” Kai noted in the analysis.
“金融虚无主义是模因币需求的关键驱动力。人们正在涌入这个市场上任何可以产生回报的东西,而模因币是市场上杠杆率最高的贝塔币,”凯在分析中指出。
However, Kai adds that this trend could shift quickly if the market turns bearish. “If the market sells off sharply or grinds sideways for an extended period, memecoins will likely be among the first to get hit.”
然而,凯补充说,如果市场转为看跌,这种趋势可能会迅速转变。 “如果市场大幅抛售或长时间横盘整理,模因币可能会首先受到冲击。”
Internally, Kai’s analysis highlights that memecoins have shown they possess a clear product-market fit and benefit from what is known as the Lindy effect—where the future life expectancy of some technologies or ideas is proportional to their current age, suggesting that memecoins are here to stay.
在内部,凯的分析强调,模因币已经表明它们拥有明确的产品市场契合度,并受益于所谓的林迪效应——某些技术或想法的未来预期寿命与其当前年龄成正比,这表明模因币已经存在留下来。
Additionally, Kai’s analysis notes that memecoins are particularly adept at creating and maintaining compelling narratives, a critical aspect in a market driven by speculation and investor sentiment.
此外,凯的分析指出,模因币特别擅长创造和维持引人注目的叙事,这是由投机和投资者情绪驱动的市场的一个关键方面。
The Art Of Memecoin Selection
Memecoin 选择的艺术
Kai delves into strategies for selecting promising memecoins, emphasizing the importance of nuanced analysis. One key factor highlighted by the analysis is ‘Emotional Resonance.’
Kai 深入研究了选择有前途的模因币的策略,强调了细致入微的分析的重要性。分析强调的一个关键因素是“情感共鸣”。
“I’m looking for memes that generate a strong emotional reaction. Is it funny, relatable, catchy, powerful, or memorable? The average retail investor is going to be the last marginal bidder of our magic internet coins, so you need to buy and hold what they emotionally resonate with,” Kai explains in the analysis.
“我正在寻找能够产生强烈情绪反应的模因。它是有趣的、相关的、吸引人的、有力的还是令人难忘的?普通散户投资者将成为我们神奇的互联网硬币的最后边际竞标者,因此你需要购买并持有他们在情感上产生共鸣的东西,”凯在分析中解释道。
Kai also highlights the importance of considering the community and engagement around a memecoin.
Kai 还强调了考虑模因币社区和参与度的重要性。
“The community is the lifeblood of any memecoin. It’s what drives attention to the coin, generates demand for the token, and ultimately determines the price action. Without a strong community, a memecoin is dead in the water.”
“社区是任何模因币的命脉。它会引起人们对代币的关注,产生对代币的需求,并最终决定价格走势。如果没有强大的社区,模因币就会死在水中。”
Potential Risks And Invalidation Scenarios
潜在风险和无效情况
Kai acknowledges the risks associated with investing in memecoins, especially given their volatility and susceptibility to market shifts.
Kai 承认投资模因币存在风险,特别是考虑到模因币的波动性和对市场变化的敏感性。
“Memecoins are a high-risk, high-reward investment. They can generate massive gains, but they can also lose value just as quickly. Only invest what you’re willing to lose, and be prepared to hold for the long term.”
“Memecoin 是一项高风险、高回报的投资。它们可以产生巨大的收益,但也可能很快失去价值。只投资你愿意损失的东西,并做好长期持有的准备。”
Kai emphasizes the importance of understanding investor psychology in the crypto market.
Kai 强调了解加密货币市场投资者心理的重要性。
“Ultimately, the question returns to: ‘What does the average crypto investor actually care about?’ It’s not the tech. It’s not the product. It’s the token—embodiment of greed and the expectation of greater profit—that ultimately consumes this investor.”
“最终,问题又回到了:‘普通加密货币投资者真正关心的是什么?’这不是技术。这不是产品。最终消耗掉这位投资者的是代币——贪婪和对更大利润的期望的体现。”
However, Kai advises investors to remain vigilant and adaptable, especially in monitoring macro conditions and any signs of a regime shift that
然而,凯建议投资者保持警惕和适应能力,特别是在监测宏观状况和政权更迭的任何迹象方面。
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