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Kai 認為,到 2025 年,memecoin 的表現將優於市場,這表明擁有「精選的 memecoin 籃子」可以讓投資者超越 99% 的市場參與者。
Analysis: Breaking Down the Allure of Memecoins in 2025
分析:2025 年打破 Memecoin 的吸引力
Recent weeks have seen a notable surge in interest around memecoins, largely driven by a new narrative positing that memecoins will spearhead the upcoming crypto bull run. This narrative has sparked a heated discussion online.
最近幾週,人們對模因幣的興趣顯著激增,這主要是由於一種新的敘事假設模因幣將引領即將到來的加密貨幣牛市。此說法在網路上引發熱議。
In this context, Kai (@Kaiwen0x), a crypto analyst, released an article that has garnered widespread attention. The analysis delves into the ongoing appeal of memecoins as a viable investment choice, especially in the upcoming bull run from 2025. Kai argues that memecoins are set to outstrip the market by 2025.
在此背景下,加密貨幣分析師Kai(@Kaiwen0x)發布了一篇文章,引起廣泛關注。該分析深入探討了 memecoin 作為可行的投資選擇的持續吸引力,尤其是在 2025 年即將到來的牛市中。
According to the analyst, owning a “curated basket of memecoins” could enable investors to out-perform 99% of the market participants. Kai’s analysis hinges on the idea that, “Outside of Bitcoin and stablecoins, memecoin is the only category that has found a clear product-market fit. They combine the best features of an ICO (capital formation) and an NFT (community building) in delivering a killer product: global, permissionless speculation.”
這位分析師表示,擁有「精選的迷因幣籃子」可以使投資者的表現優於 99% 的市場參與者。 Kai 的分析基於這樣的想法:「除了比特幣和穩定幣之外,memecoin 是唯一找到了明確的產品市場契合度的類別。它們結合了 ICO(資本形成)和 NFT(社區建設)的最佳功能,提供了殺手級產品:全球性、無需許可的投機。
Kai emphasizes that traditional crypto projects are often seen juggling both product development and token management, while memecoins focus solely on the token itself. “Memecoins removed the product and made the token its entire business, with the value of the token deriving from the attention generated by its community,” the analysis noted.
Kai 強調,傳統的加密專案經常兼顧產品開發和代幣管理,而迷因幣則只專注於代幣本身。分析指出:“Memecoins 刪除了該產品,並將代幣作為其全部業務,代幣的價值源自於其社區產生的關注。”
Highlighting data from crypto analyst @MustStopMurad, Kai noted that in 2024, 16 of the top 20 tokens within the top 300 that outperformed Bitcoin were memecoins.
Kai 重點介紹了加密貨幣分析師 @MustStopMurad 的數據,他指出,2024 年,表現優於比特幣的前 300 名代幣中,有 16 名是迷因幣。
Crucial External Factors For Memecoin Surge
Memecoin 激增的關鍵外在因素
Kai identifies two main external factors that are crucial for a memecoin surge. First, the analysis notes that macro liquidity and interest rates need to be favorable for the entire market.
Kai 指出了對於模因幣激增至關重要的兩個主要外部因素。首先,分析指出,宏觀流動性和利率需要有利於整個市場。
“The macro setup points to higher liquidity and lower interest rates in the next 12 months. Memecoins act as levered beta on Bitcoin, allowing you to capture maximum upside in a risk-on environment,” the analysis noted.
「宏觀環境顯示未來 12 個月流動性更高,利率更低。 Memecoin 充當比特幣的槓桿測試版,讓您在風險環境中獲得最大的上漲空間,」分析指出。
Second, the analysis mentions financial nihilism, a term popularized by Ikigai Investment CEO Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling). This theory suggests that a rise in financial nihilism and the “YOLO” mindset is drawing more participants into speculative markets.
其次,分析提到了金融虛無主義,這是由 Ikigai Investment 執行長 Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling) 推廣的術語。該理論表明,金融虛無主義和「YOLO」心態的抬頭正在吸引更多參與者進入投機市場。
“Financial nihilism is a key driver of memecoin demand. People are piling into anything that can generate a return in this market, and memecoins are the most levered beta on the market,” Kai noted in the analysis.
「金融虛無主義是迷因幣需求的關鍵驅動力。人們正在湧入這個市場上任何可以產生回報的東西,而模因幣是市場上槓桿率最高的貝塔幣,」凱在分析中指出。
However, Kai adds that this trend could shift quickly if the market turns bearish. “If the market sells off sharply or grinds sideways for an extended period, memecoins will likely be among the first to get hit.”
然而,凱補充說,如果市場轉為看跌,這種趨勢可能會迅速轉變。 “如果市場大幅拋售或長時間橫盤整理,模因幣可能會首先受到打擊。”
Internally, Kai’s analysis highlights that memecoins have shown they possess a clear product-market fit and benefit from what is known as the Lindy effect—where the future life expectancy of some technologies or ideas is proportional to their current age, suggesting that memecoins are here to stay.
在內部,凱的分析強調,模因幣已經表明它們擁有明確的產品市場契合度,並受益於所謂的林迪效應——某些技術或想法的未來預期壽命與其當前年齡成正比,這表明模因幣已經存在留下來。
Additionally, Kai’s analysis notes that memecoins are particularly adept at creating and maintaining compelling narratives, a critical aspect in a market driven by speculation and investor sentiment.
此外,凱的分析指出,迷因幣特別擅長創造和維持引人注目的敘事,這是由投機和投資者情緒驅動的市場的關鍵方面。
The Art Of Memecoin Selection
Memecoin 選擇的藝術
Kai delves into strategies for selecting promising memecoins, emphasizing the importance of nuanced analysis. One key factor highlighted by the analysis is ‘Emotional Resonance.’
Kai 深入研究了選擇有前途的迷因幣的策略,強調了細緻入微的分析的重要性。分析強調的一個關鍵因素是「情感共鳴」。
“I’m looking for memes that generate a strong emotional reaction. Is it funny, relatable, catchy, powerful, or memorable? The average retail investor is going to be the last marginal bidder of our magic internet coins, so you need to buy and hold what they emotionally resonate with,” Kai explains in the analysis.
「我正在尋找能夠產生強烈情緒反應的迷因。它是有趣的、相關的、吸引人的、有力的還是令人難忘的?普通散戶投資者將成為我們神奇的網路硬幣的最後邊際競標者,因此你需要購買並持有他們在情感上產生共鳴的東西,」凱在分析中解釋道。
Kai also highlights the importance of considering the community and engagement around a memecoin.
Kai 也強調了考慮迷因幣社群和參與度的重要性。
“The community is the lifeblood of any memecoin. It’s what drives attention to the coin, generates demand for the token, and ultimately determines the price action. Without a strong community, a memecoin is dead in the water.”
「社群是任何迷因幣的命脈。它會引起人們對代幣的關注,產生對代幣的需求,並最終決定價格走勢。如果沒有強大的社區,模因幣就會死在水中。
Potential Risks And Invalidation Scenarios
潛在風險和無效情況
Kai acknowledges the risks associated with investing in memecoins, especially given their volatility and susceptibility to market shifts.
Kai 承認投資迷因幣存在風險,特別是考慮到迷因幣的波動性和對市場變化的敏感度。
“Memecoins are a high-risk, high-reward investment. They can generate massive gains, but they can also lose value just as quickly. Only invest what you’re willing to lose, and be prepared to hold for the long term.”
「Memecoin 是一項高風險、高回報的投資。它們可以產生巨大的收益,但也可能很快失去價值。只投資你願意損失的東西,並做好長期持有的準備。
Kai emphasizes the importance of understanding investor psychology in the crypto market.
Kai 強調了解加密貨幣市場投資者心理的重要性。
“Ultimately, the question returns to: ‘What does the average crypto investor actually care about?’ It’s not the tech. It’s not the product. It’s the token—embodiment of greed and the expectation of greater profit—that ultimately consumes this investor.”
“最終,問題又回到了:’普通加密貨幣投資者真正關心的是什麼?’這不是技術。這不是產品。最終消耗掉這位投資者的是代幣——貪婪和對更大利潤的期望的體現。
However, Kai advises investors to remain vigilant and adaptable, especially in monitoring macro conditions and any signs of a regime shift that
然而,凱建議投資者保持警惕和適應能力,特別是在監測宏觀狀況和政權更迭的任何跡象方面。
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