比特币鲸已经醒了：这种势头会催化可持续的集会吗？

比特币的最大持有人，控制10多个BTC（$ 821K+）的鲸鱼已经在一夜之间猛增了132个钱包，这是2月以来最陡峭的增长。

President Trump's announcement of a pause on tariffs from China brought some respite to market fears on Thursday, resulting in a 132-wallet surge in Bitcoin’s largest holders, those controlling 10+ BTC ($821K+), according to crypto analytics firm Santiment.

特朗普总统宣布对中国关税的暂停，这在周四引起了市场恐惧，导致比特币最大的持有人的132瓦尔特激增，那些控制了10+ BTC（821K+）的人。

This marks the steepest growth in stitiBitcoin whales’ tier in February following the last significant rally.

这标志着在上次重大集会之后的2月，stibitcoin鲸鱼层的增长最高。

However, while Santiment attributes this to renewed institutional confidence in BTC, skeptics may point out that the timing aligns more closely with Trump’s statement, delivered around 3:30 AM ET.

但是，尽管Santiment将其归因于对BTC的机构信心，但怀疑论者可能会指出，时机与特朗普的声明更加紧密，在美国东部时间上午3:30左右发表。

This sparks speculation whether it’s genuine accumulation or short-term positioning in response to the newsflow.

这引发了人们的猜测，无论是响应新闻流而是真正的积累还是短期定位。

"The 10+ BTC tier has been in a declining trend for the past few weeks. Historically, we've seen that rapid accumulation phases in this tier often precede bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price. For instance, earlier this year, we witnessed a substantial increase in this tier during the February rally. These large investors, also known as Bitcoin whales, are likely capitalizing on the recent market dip induced by the tariff news. Their significant re-entry suggests deep-seated long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s potential. Nonetheless, the timing, closely aligned with the political announcement, raises questions about the sustainability of this accumulation phase. Is it a genuine long-term strategy or a short-term positioning move in reaction to the tariff news?" elaborated Santiment.

“过去几周的10多个BTC层一直在下降。从历史上看，我们已经看到，这一层的迅速积累阶段通常在比特币价格的看涨阶段之前。建议比特币潜力的长期定罪。详尽的santiment。

While Trump’s tariff pause may have temporarily eased some institutional FUD, ultimately, Bitcoin’s fate will still be decided by broader economic trends. Bitcoin whale activity alone cannot overrule macro pressures like inflation or the upcoming Fed policy decisions.

尽管特朗普的关税暂停可能暂时缓解了一些机构FUD，但最终，比特币的命运仍将取决于更广泛的经济趋势。仅比特币鲸鱼活动不能否决通货膨胀或即将进行的美联储政策决定等宏观压力。

It’s worth noting that this surge in large holders isn’t yet reflected in commensurately large price gains. BTC has been struggling to break out of a key resistance level, suggesting that despite whales’ optimism, retail traders might not be participating as actively. For a true bull run to unfold, we'll need to see both forces converge.

值得注意的是，大型持有人的这种激增尚未反映在相应的价格上涨中。 BTC一直在努力摆脱关键的阻力水平，这表明，尽管鲸鱼乐观，零售商人可能不会积极参与。为了进行真正的公牛奔跑，我们需要看到两种力量融合。

Let’s take a look at the technical analysis of the 15-minute chart of BTC/USDT.

让我们看一下BTC/USDT 15分钟图表的技术分析。

The BTC/USDT 15-minute chart is currently showing signs of consolidation just below the overhead resistance zone, which is located in the range of $83,800 to $84,200. The price is currently testing the lower levels of this resistance band, and it’s also encountering resistance at the psychological round number of $83,000. On the other hand, the price is finding support at the $79,000 level, which is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. A deeper level of support could be seen at $75,000, which is the low that was reached on March 27.

BTC/USDT 15分钟图表目前显示在高架阻力区以下合并的迹象，该区域的范围为83,800美元至84,200美元。价格目前正在测试该阻力频带的较低水平，并且在心理回合$ 83,000的情况下也遇到了阻力。另一方面，价格是在79,000美元的水平上找到支持，这是最近合并范围的下边界。可以看到75,000美元的更深层次的支持，这是3月27日达到的低价。

As the price is showing some hesitation as it approaches the resistance, this could indicate that a breakout or a rejection at this point could decide the next move for the market. If the bulls can push the price through the resistance, then we could see a continuation of the recent rally. However, if the sellers manage to defend this level, then the price could pull back and retest the lower levels of support.

由于价格在接近抵抗力时表现出犹豫，这可能表明此时突破或拒绝可以决定市场的下一步行动。如果公牛队可以通过抵抗来推动价格，那么我们可以看到最近的集会的延续。但是，如果卖方设法捍卫这一水平，那么价格可能会退缩并重新测试较低的支持水平。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 46.55, which is placing it in neutral territory. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 70 signaling overbought conditions and readings below 30 suggesting oversold conditions.

相对强度指数（RSI）目前为46.55，将其置于中立领域。 RSI的范围为0到100，读数超过70个信号传导过多的条件，读数低于30，暗示了超售条件。

Earlier today, the RSI signaled overbought and oversold conditions, which aligned well with the price movements as it reversed from these extremes. For instance, when the RSI hit 30 on March 27, the price bounced from the low and rallied. Similarly, when the RSI reached 70 on April 9, the price stalled and pulled back from the high. This suggests that the RSI can be a useful indicator for identifying short-term price trends.

今天早些时候，RSI标志着超买和超售的条件，这与价格转向从这些极端逆转时非常吻合。例如，当RSI在3月27日达到30次时，价格从低位弹起并集结。同样，当RSI在4月9日达到70时，价格停止并从高处退回。这表明RSI可能是识别短期价格趋势的有用指标。

MACD is currently showing a past "Death Cross," which occurred when the 12-EMA crossed below the 26-EMA, followed by a decline in momentum, indicated by the MACD Line (12-EMA - 26-EMA) moving below the zero line and the MACD Histogram (12-EMA - 26-EMA) decreasing from its peak.

MACD目前正在显示过去的“死亡十字”，这发生在26-EMA以下的12-EMA交叉时发生，其次下降，而动量下降，MACD线（12-EMA-26-EMA）在零线以下和MACD直方图（12-EMA-26-EMA）下降的峰值下降。

Although the MACD Histogram has narrowed in recent candlesticks, the MACD Lines are still placed below the zero line, which suggests that the bullish momentum is still weak or that the consolidation phase might continue.

尽管MACD直方图在最近的烛台中缩小了，但MACD线仍位于零线以下，这表明看涨的动量仍然很弱，或者巩固阶段可能会持续下去。

In the broader picture, the price action is clearly showing a range-bound pattern with no complete breakout above the resistance yet.

在更广泛的情况下，价格动作清楚地显示出范围内的模式，尚未完全突破阻力。

For traders who prefer to trade in the direction of the breakout, they might be interested in looking for a candle that closes completely above the $83,800 to $84,2

对于喜欢朝着突破方向进行交易的交易者，他们可能有兴趣寻找一支完全关闭83,800美元至84,2美元的蜡烛